Ladies and gentlemen, here are 27 nations and how I rate their chances to debut at the 2026 World Cup. A lot of research has been done. A lot of footage has been checked out. Teams I didn't list won't stand a chance to qualify in my humble view. Tier I - hopeful to qualify Uzbekistan Bahrain Vietnam Jordan Burkina Faso Cape Verde Gabon Gambia Mali Suriname Venezuela Finland Tier II - stand an okeyish chance to qualify Oman Zambia Equatorial Guinea Benin Guatemala Curaçao Georgia Albania Tier III - stand a very small chance to qualify Syria Thailand Guinea Guinea Bissau Armenia Kazakhstan North Macedonia Luxembourg The poll will run three months. You have up to 6 votes as I regard 6 as the absolute maximum we could get on debutants in this cycle. Remember CONMEBOL WCQ will kick off first in September. AFC will follow in October. CAF will get the ball rolling in November. So that's why the poll will run 3 months. Guys, engage! If you want to post your own selection of teams feel free to do so. Furthermore I'm open to discuss the teams I named and give reasons for why I included them and why I put them in their respective tier. Good luck to all potential debutants out there! We are thrilled to see which nations will find their way to North America and benefit from the expansion to 48 teams.
Kamiboy., i am sorry but again this is very subjective and surely not based on facts! how please in even any parallel world can Suriname be given a hopeful chance to qualify?! Which "fact" made you think they have such good chances. how can you rate the chances of african teams where the draw stand but also UEFA teams where no draw has been held so far?! Where are Albania, Montenegro? They are not worse then Luxembourg or North Macedonia but not in your list. For what reason? Albania was at least at Euro 2016 and Montenegro were playing a Euro playoff once vs. Czechia. Why you don't have any oceanian team on your list? Despite NZ being the clear favorite, teams like Solomon Isl, New Caledonia or PNG have at least an decent outsider chance against them and as OFC has one fix slot at the WC this is not an impossible path to walk.
Oh boy you are not only annoying but you seem to be blind as well. I'll block you now. I won't see your posts anymore. Ciao Balkan brother.
Kazakhstan and Syria have a decent chance of getting to the playoffs. Kazakhs are playing very well in the Euro qualifiers. I'll need to see how the African and Asian teams play in their respective cups in January-February before I make a call. Mali have a great chance of being at the World Cup, though. Cape Verde I'd love to see as Duk plays for my team, Aberdeen in Scotland, only 3 caps so far, but hopefully he makes an impact in the Ivory Coast next year. Lots of good players have Cape Verde heritage in Europe, former Portuguese colony, as is Angola who have good players, but that country is pretty screwed up. Mozambique, another former Portuguese colony, home of the great Eusebio, seem to be getting better, but yo just never can be certain with the African nations, even Algeria who became fantastic then diminished, no appearance at Qatar. You should also do a thread of, "Who WON'T be at the 2026 World Cup" just to be devilish! .
Sometime end of this month or early September I will deliver my 48 team prediction. Once I published that I'll open a thread with notable teams I see missing out on World Cup action in 2026. I think there will be some noteworthy casualties in every confederation (except for the OFC). I do. I might open also a thread for teams who I think will return after a long hiatus (20 years or more). I see with the expansion to 48 teams multiple teams making it back after having been absent from the showpiece event for quite a long time.
Yeah, it's too early to tell, but we might see... Jamaica United Arab Emirates Egypt, Mali, Ivory Coast Hungary, Ukraine, Austria Kazakhstan, Finland, Scotland Obviously I want to see Scotland, but it will be tough for all teams. Even winning your first three or even four matches in UEFA could see you still finish in second place and have to wait four months for the playoffs in March 2026, which could be two epic away battles, the squeakiest of squeaky bum times since squeaky bums began!
From the list, I only found four teams which have a reasonable expectation to debut: Uzbekistan Oman Venezula Finland The others would seem very out of place at the World Cup final competition, the expansion to 48 teams notwithstanding.
The re-formatted European Qualifiers will enthral the world! Incidentally, the playoff format of single leg semifinals and finals is the same as that used for EUROs and WCs since the UNL started in 2018.
Regarding the omission of OFC in my lists. I don't rate the chance for an upset in the OFC whatsoever. I think New Zealand are very clear of everyone and it would be an incredible upset if they would slip this opportunity to qualify for once comfortably and without much stress for a World Cup. OFC is a conundrum to me. I don't think there is any clear-cut no 2 in the region. Historically it's been the Solomon Islands who very often turned out to be New Zealand's main competition. However I'm not sure in what state they are now. I think in the OFC there are six teams whose overal level is relatively similar. These being Solomon Islands New Caledonia Papua New Guinea Tahiti Fiji Vanuatu Ideally I'd take three of these teams and put them in tier III widening the pool of teams in question to 30 but I simply can't figure out who of these teams are the right choices for my list. So volatile are the results in the OFC. It's really anyone's guess. But my honest preidtion is that New Zealand will qualify comfortably leaving whoever finish second to be smashed in the intercontinental playoffs. I can't see how the OFC team would be any competitive in the intercontinental playoffs. Remember New Zealand should have qualified for the 2022 World Cup. They lost out to Costa Rica 1-0 by an early goal but they dominated the proceedings throughout that game. They got unlucky.
The problem with the OFC and improving the overall level of the teams to increase their competitiveness - and it is a problem shared with Asia - is that the teams play too few meaningful games during the 4-year cycle (I exclude regional tournaments from being classified as meaningful games).
Uzbekistan are on a clear upward trajectory under Kantenec and they are all things considered out of all these 27 teams the team with the best odds of debuting. Oman recently have disappointed a lot. Several underhelming results against teams who are very far away from entering my lists like Kyrygzstan and Tajikistan. Furthermore they were handily beaten by Uzbekistan at the CAFA Nations Cup (3-0 loss). Oman have become all of a sudden a question mark and I see them struggling in the latter stages of WCQ. Hence they miss out on tier I of my list. Venezuela are on a mild upward trajectory. There is nothing ecstatic about them but they look solid to me and given that the bottom half of CONMEBOL is not at their best this could be their chance to finally make it. Finland are in a transition period. As of now I rate them a bit weaker than in 2019-2021. They are temporarily at the top of their EURO qualifiers group but they've got a number of tough matches coming up. The main reason I rate their chances the highest among all my UEFA entries is their somewhat decent FIFA Ranking. If they qualify for EURO 2024 and do ok there it would pave them the way to pot 2 for the WCQ draw. And that would boost their chances.
It looks like Suriname's inclusion for tier I of my lists turns some heads. I think they are one of the most slept teams upon in international football right now. They did lose on penalties to very lowly ranked Puerto Rico in the Gold Cup prelims but I give them a pass for that. Suriname showcased their skills in League A of the CONCACAF Nations League where they took at times the game to the likes of Mexico and Jamaica. The final standings saw them getting relegated with just one point after four games but they showed themselves competitive in basically any game they played. Suriname because of their close history with the Netherlands boast an interesting squad of many Dutch dual nationals. Several players have recently committed to Suriname and there is a number of players who could still commit to them anytime soon. The change in rule by FIFA adopted in the end of 2020 that players who played three caps before they turned 21 can still change their allegiance to another country means Suriname have a larger pool of players to choose from. To be more precise the current level of Suriname is maybe comparable to a mid-table team in the Dutch Eredivisie. With a couple more additions and gelling with each other in the upcoming months and years I could see Suriname reaching the level of a top 6 team in the Eredivise. This is a team whose ceiling is pretty much unkwown yet. I ranked Suriname 8th in my CONCACAF Ranking. I think they are already by now better than the likes of Honduras, Haiti and Guatemala. I think that they could get into my top 5 by the end of 2025. Suriname have an interesting project running and they can be hopeful to book a place for the 2026 World Cup as far as I'm concerned. They are definately CONCACAF's best bet of sending a debutant. The Curaçao project has run its course, the players lost fervour and the project lost its direction. As for Guatemala they hustle a lot and play with a lot of heart but skill wise they are not on the same level as Suriname having watched both teams extensively over the last months.
Guatemala is going to have a better home field though. Central American teams usually have crazier supporters in the stands. I know people may think I put too much stock into that but in CONCACAF and Latin America it does make a difference. Caribbean nations just do not have that intimidating factor generally. Maybe the office in Jamaica but even they have had mediocre crowds the last few cycles. It is going to be more difficult to get points in Guatemala than in Suriname.
While playing at Suriname is maybe not as challenging as in Central America I would rank it tougher than the office in Jamaica. The office was a very comfortable away venue for any visiting team last time out. Don't underestimate the Surinamnese people. They will show up in numbers and support their team. And this is not a copy and paste of Jamaica where there are supposedly deep rifts between the English born guys and the rest. Manager Aron Winter is very aware of the potential problem and he is keen to prevent a 'Jamaica' situation. Suriname are a quality side. They are more than just a bunch of Dutch rejects and I expect them to showcase their strength in WCQ.
I dont give Benin an "okish" chance to qualify. It would be no more than a very small chance. If Nigeria does fail in that group it most certainly be South Africa that benefits. I can't see anyone outside of those 2 qualifying.
It's borderline. I can see your point. Benin have a very young squad and I expect them to evolve under Gernot Rohr who has been in charge since only a couple months. They could prove to be a banana peel for Nigeria as Rohr knows Nigeria like the back of his hand.
Even if Rohr gets his revenge and Benin manage to beat Nigeria, I still don't think they would qualify. They would just lose too many points against the other teams who are of similar quality. With 10 games as opposed to 6 last WCQ, it will be much more about consistency rather than individual matchups. Even South Africa I expect to drop lots of points away from home.
Just for your notice I already picked Venezuela to qualify. https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/eliminatorias-rumbo-al-mundial-2026-table-predictions.2126924/
For me Uzbekistan are penned down, unless a tremendous loss of form. Suriname, I've been waiting for them to finally break out and become a player in concacaf. It hasn't happened yet. Curacao even seems to have gone backwards.
Agreed on Uzbekistan. They are just too good to miss out again. Suriname will hit the ground running in this WCQ. Trust me.
Yeah, to be honest, I find those unfair. It should be two legs or a single match on neutral ground, ie. Scotland v Ireland would be at Wembley, Italy v Hungary would be in Paris, etc. No one should have an advantage in a playoff. And is it REALLY an advantage? Scotland played Ukraine in Hampden Park, Glasgow, out national stadium and they BEAT US! Then they played Wales in Cardiff and Wales beat them and a weak Wales side went on to Qatar, it would have been better if Ukraine had been there, not just Scotland. Hopefully Wales will improve over the next 2+ years. I'm the same as everyone right now, I have a document of what I think 2026 will look like... ________________________________________________________________________ - Group A - USA Holland Cameroon ---------------- United Arab Emirates - Group B - France Ecuador Algeria ---------------- Austria - Group C - Germany Colombia Egypt ---------------- Jamaica - Group D - Argentina Korea Belgium ---------------- China - Group E - England Hungary Australia ---------------- New Zealand - Group F - Italy Nigeria Chile ---------------- Panama - Group G - Switzerland Mexico ---------------- Iran Tunisia - Group F - Ukraine Denmark ---------------- Mali Guatemala - Group G - Portugal Morocco ---------------- Canada Peru - Group H - Croatia Uruguay ---------------- Saudi Arabia South Africa - Group I - Spain Brazil Ivory Coast ---------------- Sweden - Group J - Japan Senegal Scotland ---------------- Costa Rica _____________ Round of 32 South Korea v Denmark Germany v Cameroon France v Chile Argentina v Egypt Italy v Algeria England v Morocco Ukraine v Holland Ivory Coast v Portugal Mexico v Colombia Croatia v Australia Spain v Scotland Japan v Switzerland Ecuador v Senegal Hungary v Belgium Brazil v Nigeria USA v Uruguay _____________ Round of 16 France v Ecuador Holland v South Korea Scotland v Mexico Japan v Portugal Germany v Croatia Brazil v Belgium Argentina v USA Algeria v Italy ____________ Quarter Finals France v South Korea Scotland v Japan Croatia v Brazil Argentina v Italy _____________ Semi Finals France v Japan Brazil v Italy _____________ Final Brazil v France _________________________________________________________________________ It's scary when you look at Rounds 32 and 16 like that, isn't it?! That's SOME schedule. It's fun to speculate. I did this more to come to terms with the SCALE, the4 SIZE of the tournament, the EVENT nonpareil. It will dominate the entire summer, I don't see movies being released that summer, unlike in 1994 when, The Lion King, Forrest Gump, True Lies, Speed, The Mask competed with World Cup USA fever. African Cup and Asian Cup will run together this January-February in the Quarter Finals anyway, I think it is. And Euros and Copa America will run together in tandem in the summer. The latter will be pretty crazy, as we'll be watching Euros during the afternoon and the Copa in the evening/early hours! It will feel like watching a split World Cup! Hope we don't get muddled up!
Solomon Islands have this young genius... He scores goals in his sleep. He plays in Bosnia now. I'd love to see battle-hardened New Zealand at 2026 not a team who breezed through and get demolished in the Group Stage, which I don't think they would, but a team that had the spirit of 1982 and 2010 is what they need, make the great Wynton Rufer proud!
I am looking at your bracket and thinking Mexico playing Colombia could be epic in the USA. Like one of the best atmospheres ever in any World Cup match with all the Mexicans and Colombians that would attend. And depending where the game was played Mexican fans would probably not even be the majority which is VERY rare in the USA. But I forgot that hypothetical matchup in this scenario would be in Mexico and I would literally barf seeing Mexico win but I guess it could happen with their home field. I think Colombia would have a chance in Guadalajara or Monterrey though. The Azteca just seems like it would be setup for Mexico to win.