I've completed my research and made up my mind on how I see the Eliminatorias panning out. Here my predicted final standings: 1. Argentina 2. Colombia 3. Brazil 4. Uruguay 5. Ecuador (start with -3 points) 6. Venezuela 7. Chile (will seal their ticket to North America via the intercontinental playoffs) ________________________________________________________________________________ 8. Peru 9. Paraguay 10. Bolivia Overperformers: Colombia and Venezuela (debutant) Underperformers: Brazil, Peru and Paraguay I'll revisit in September 2025 and judge my predictions. If people are intersted in my reasonsing for particular picks I'm ready to share my thoughts and reasons.
Wow, Brazil at 3rd?? @Kamtedrejt ??? Is part of your thinking that Ancelotti won't make much of an impact? My understanding is that its almost guaranteed that Carlos is going to manage Brazil, and I rate him as one of the best football managers in the world. Brazil finishing 3rd is a bit shocking. The team is pretty loaded and they will have a top tier world class manager. Bold predictions my man.
While I wouldn’t put Colombia over Brazil, I do like the confidence in them. Unbeaten in their last 11 games, only allowed 2 goals twice in the past 2 years (22 games), have clean sheets in half of those games. I’d be absolutely shocked if they didn’t qualify. I chose Chile & Peru as my 6th & 7th teams in the poll (maybe Paraguay over Peru would be a better guess). Curious as to why you think Venezuela will qualify @Kamtedrejt?
1- Argentina 2- Brazil 3- Uruguay 4- Ecuador 5- Colombia 6- Paraguay 7- Chile 8- Peru 9- Bolivia 10- Venezuela
People have been expecting Venezuela to finally make the jump for decades now. They've certainly improved their individual talent, but their team is still weak.
I always include a couple curve balls and pick some surprises. It's just the way operate. I just think that after cruising through the last two Eliminatorias in 2018 and in 2022 and two rather disappointing World Cup performances Brazil will slow down a little bit in qualifying. I feel somewhat like emotional fatigue has settled and they might draw and lose some games they used to win. It's vibes. I think they are now ripe for an average campaign in WCQ for once. The fact that they'll dispute their first six games with a caretaker manager isn't ideal either. The players might not be fully motivated to show themselves when they know the competition for spots in the starting eleven starts from zero again with Ancelotti coming in summer 2024.
Venezuela's standout performance in the last year or so came in March of this year when they beat Saudi Arabia 2-1 on the road. I watched the full game and I was impressed by Venezuela. I think if they can put on more consistency and build on that performance aganst Saudi Arabia they might surprise many people. Their perofrmances in June though when they beat Guatemala and Honduras only by a single goal were kinda meh. It's a gamble. Am I very confident in that prediction? Absolutely not but I think it's far from impossible for Venezuela to slip into the top six if everything goes perfectly for them and the remaining teams of the bottom half continue to struggle. I think talent wise Venezuela can absolutely do it. They've got quality players such as Rondon, Soteldo and Chancellor and a couple other underrated up and coming youngsters. Question mark arises when it comes to their ability to deal with setbacks and the lack of the bad boy mentality - gamesmanship I'd call it. For now I turned a blind eye on that and gamble on their quality and on teams like Peru declining in the next one two years while Paraguay continue failing to figure out their shit.
I'd honestly love if Brazil ended up in 3rd like OP is predicting - we normally win the World Cup when we underperform in the qualifiers. But as much as I think going from Tite to Ancelotti Inshallah was a huge downgrade, I still think we will finish 1st in the qualifiers.
I don't think Brazil in third is an absurd prediction either. I also think that what you characterize as "emotional fatigue" I might have characterized differently, but ultimately agree that Brazil may go through (and I think if they don't, it might be through denial). Nonetheless, even under those conditions it's entirely possible for Brazil to finish in the top 2, due to the nature of the qualifiers and Brazil's depth. It remains to be seen if Brazil will have the sort of consistency they should in this format (not even Tite level consistency). Outside of Brazil, the story for me could be Venezuela. Will they finally qualify? I would like to see it. Back to Brazil, we still have never lost a home qualifier. Is this the time it finally happens? If that were to happen, alarm bells would be ringing louder than ever before. Louder than 1993 when we lost away to Bolivia, louder than after any of the last five World Cup eliminations. Would be something to see... and we could still finish top 2 even if something like that happens cause there are 17 other matches.
1. Arg 2. Bra 3. Uru 4. Col 5. Ecu 6. Ven 7. Per 8. Chi 9. Par 10. Bol Notes: - Brazil has simply too much individual quality to not finish among top 2. Only time it didn't happen was in 2002 wcq (yet they still made 30 points lmao) and that campaign was an absolute mess. - unlike Kamtedrejt I don't think Colombia has enough quality to finish 2nd even if they are playing well. That would mean being in the range of 32+ points, only time they achieved it was in 2014 wcq and that squad was a LOT more talented than this one. - I place Venezuela as 6th but don't think they will do amazing or anything. In my calculations they get 20 points max, but this time that would be enough. It's just that I see the 4 teams below in worse shape. I also rate Batista's work. - I think Peru Will have a VERY rough start (possibly only 4/18 points), fire Reynoso, re-hire Gareca and ultimately improve enough to take the play-off spot. - Chile is difficult to rate for me. Under Berizzo they won't qualify 100% sure, but he may get the boot quickly. Not convinced at all with their younger players. Notorious lack of decent CMs and a new right back. Maybe the sole effort of Sanchez and Brereton can keep them in the top 6? Unlikely. - Paraguay... other than Enciso they still have nothing. No emerging midfielders, no full backs, the insistence in playing that ancient keeper is also mind-boggling. I was even tempted to put them in 10th place since Bolivia can get altitude points and Costas is a good coach.
I'm aware that this Colombia don't have the same indivdual quality as that 2014 team. I just think they have momentum on their side and I can see them having a fyling start that will carry them through the entire campaign. I like that they found a way now to create and score without James Rodrigues. They've got high quality wingers and defend well as a team. At first I had Peru getting the playoff spot and Chile in 8th like you but I changed it in the end. Yeah, Peru's schedule at the beginning is rough. But they've got also an ageing team. More so than even Chile. With the lack of talented young payers coming up at Peru I project them to be washed up in 2025. Remember one third of the qualifiers will be played this year, another third in 2024 and the last third in 2025. Peru would have stood a better chance imo if more games would have been played this year and in 2024. I personally don't think that Juan Reynoso is the problem. It's the squad he got at his disposal. Hence a managerial change to Ricardo Gareca sometime during the Eliminatorias wouldn't change all that much imo. I don't rate Berizzo either. Him and Schelotto (he's even worse) are hands down the worst managers of the Eliminatorias judging by how their teams play and how little these teams have progressed if at all under their respective reign.
Some of Peru's main players and their age in brackets GK: Gallese (33) CB: Zambrano (34) CB: Callens (31) LB: Trauco (30) RB: Advincula (33) DM: Yotun (33) AM: Cueva (31) RW: Carillo (32) FW: Guerrero (39) FW: Lapadula (33) FW: Ruidiaz (33) This team will get significantly weaker in 2024 and by 2025 it will be just washed up I'm afraid. Chile on the other hand have got some very ageing starters like Medel (36), Vidal (36) and Sanchez (34) but a younger core of players around them which makes me believing that THAT will turn the balance in their favour in the end.
This is true but all of these guys except Lapadula and Cueva (the latter is still 31 so he can keep going for a bit) have a younger natural replacement that is almost as good (Tapia, Aquino, Peña, Lopez, Lora et al). I don't see the same in Chile except for the CB position, the gap in quality between starters and subs is bigger. Like, if Pulgar or Alexis don't play Chile has a massive problem.
Yeah I noticed an overreliance on Alexis Sanchez. If dude isn't on the pitch or if he isn't on it Chile struggle big time. I think Sanchez will bail them out in some games. They have to pray that he doesn't miss many games.
@Athlone @pipinogol You both voted that Venezuela would qualify. Please underline your vote by giving your vote to Venezuela in my newly created top potential debutants thread. Thanks. https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/these-nations-could-debut-at-the-2026-world-cup.2126983/
It's between Peru and Paraguay for the last spot I think. Bolivia and Venezuela out. I'm going with Peru.
Not going to vote as this CONMEBOL WCQ cycle appears way too unpredictable at the moment. However easy it is to state the following, Argentina and Brazil are the likely top two. I want to place Colombia in the top 4, but however solid they've been, they've disappointed when it came to the World Cup (said without any hostility or mockery - I thought Colombia in Qatar would've been great, but they didn't get there, and in 2018, they underperformed against England). Uruguay and Chile were strong at different times in the 2010s, but the latter is way past its mid-2010s phase while the former may have some hope as its U-20 team won this year's World Cup. For Argentina, although Messi no longer plays in UEFA, they're looking strong. They did well in their post-2022 World Cup friendlies. Morale couldn't be higher, and Scaloni is still on board. If he does his homework, transition heading towards 2026 will present few problems, although of course the big question is until when will Messi be part of the team. As for Brazil - we Brazilians did plenty of wondering and questioning as to who would take Tite's place, and for now, it's Fernando Diniz (who will also continue on board at Fluminense until Carlo Ancelotti arrives in mid-2024). Personally, I would have never picked Diniz, because I don't even view him as the best option from the domestic Brazilian scene (my faraway pick, from before the last World Cup ended, was and still is Abel Ferreira, but Palmeiras appears to have him locked in place until his contract ends late next year). Diniz isn't bad, but I'm a bit wary of how the team will do with him.
Argentina Brazil Uruguay Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Chile Perú Venezuela Bolivia I think I already made a prediction in another thread
HA H AH AH AH HA H AH I love it! Let's hear it Vino Tintoi!!! Let me have it. This is your time baby. You guys are most likely going to be one of the teams. I hope you do, btw.
We have to say things as they are: CONMEBOL QUALIFIERS BEING CONMEBOL QUALIFIERS There is a lot left and Im not that overconfident, there is a game coming up between you and us there in Lima, a game that we never play well, and that has me nervous even though we are in the presence of the clown of Reynoso. I still want Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela to qualify
Quería acotar Loco, impresentable la FPF también. Podrás creer que me salieron más baratos los boletos aéreos a Lima que las entradas al partido del martes? Carísimas esas entradas!