The 2018 Table :: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Curious Quantities

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 13, 2018.

  1. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Vanity of vanities, said the Butter, all is vanity. What has a team won for all its labor which it has taken upon the field? One season passes away, and another comes. But the Toast abides forever. (Toasteronomy 1:1-4)​

    -- -- --

    I'm not going to admonish you incorrigible jerks for pressuring me to post this thread before I was good and ready. It'd be a waste of pixels. Plus, I know the truth. If I posted this thread any earlier, you'd all be upset because I would have deprived you of the pleasure of moaning and groaning about how inexcusably negligent it is that I won't start this thread immediately after the first game of the season.

    But, fine. Whatever. The Toast Thread is back for another round of disreputable analysis, sloppy calculations, kooky prejudices, imbecilic superstitions, mindless inside jokes, and its usual heap of recycled material and third-rate toast memes.

    Honestly, I don't understand why any of us bother with this any longer. And not just this foolish and predictable thread. I mean soccer in general. Let's get real. Soccer is nothing but misery and we should all get on with our lives and stop devoting time and energy and emotion into this ridiculous child's game.

    So, to hell with this thread! To hell with this season! And to hell with soccer!

    -- -- --

    Yeah, yeah, I know.

    I'm just (still!) really bitter about the USMNT missing the World Cup.

    And SRFC getting passed over by MLS ...

    And the lack of a Toast Thread ...

    ... oh, despairing darkness ...

    -- -- --

    Things that nobody reads.
    Links that nobody clicks.

    If any of you read this stuff, you wouldn't ask such annoying questions later. But you don't and you will. If you recognize what's written below, first, that's weird because nobody reads this stuff, and second that's because I pretty much entirely copy and paste it from previous iterations of this thread.
    • Background on the Calculated and Actual Despair Numbers: 2010 incarnation, 2011 explanation, 2012 revision.
    • Toast: The taxonomy of toast (which runs from untoasted bread to burnt toast) is rigorously scientific, and certainly not some back-of-an-envelope calculation based upon an anecdotal sense of the probable, improbable, and highly improbable. Nor is it purposefully designed to infuriate Crewligans and Orlandorks. That is, however, an unintended, but welcome, attribute. As per the 2015 thread, once toasted, a team may be Lazarused, becoming Lazarakia, which is to say untoasted, only once back in playoff position by PPG. The secret word remains fercockt. Nobody seemed to notice the secret word last year. In the grand history of toast, no team once toasted has made the playoffs, though one or two have been temporarily Lazarused. Determinations about toast are made at the end of the playing week as establish by this thread's schedule of games.
    • Religious Guidance: The Toast Jesus thread on the religion board exists to discuss all matters spiritual, existential, and ethical.
    Also, we are free to make up new rules as we go along, and from time to time when weird shit happens we do just that. That's how we roll on the toast thread. Deal with it. And if you can't, go toast yourself!

    -- -- --

    Toasting Man 2018 is brought to you by Sutter Health, the official healthcare hospice provider for incurable MLS playoff failure syndrome.

    -- -- --

    Only Toast Jesus is so perfect that even his imperfections are perfect. So this thread is far from perfect. Indeed, it'd be a minor miracle that anything in it is remotely correct. But this, as the regulars know, is not my fault because I'm far too charming and handsome for it to be my fault.

    No doubt there are errors (almost certainly in the schedule, but possibly also in the spreadsheet). If you see them, please kindly point them out so I might correct them. And when you find those unfortunate errors please remember to cast blame upon the one who deserves that blame, namely @Sounders78.

    -- -- --

    Here are your stinking tables, you undeserving bastards!

    1Conferences.png 2Combined.png 3Misc.png 4TablesKey.png 5Schedule.png
    -- -- --

    Notes

    Every year I bluster on about whether or not we've got prospects for a decent playoff race. Typically, that bluster is wisely forgotten within a week or two, and I'd be truly wise if I didn't post it at all. But what's expected is expected.

    Let's start with the EC. At the top of the table, we've got NYR, ATL, and NYC well ahead of the rest. Those three have practically clinched playoff spots already. Then we have CLB on an island, separated above and below by gaps of about 0.30 PPG. Then there's another 3-team cluster in spots 5-7, none of which are achieving PPG numbers that should have them so high upon the table. Indeed, they wouldn't even be in the top-8 in the WC. Then there's DCU, which is better positioned to make a run than some have supposed, as they do have a solid home record (so far), plenty of home games left, and fairly low bar to jump. As for ORL and CHI, CHI is toast as of yesterday, and ORL is looking like they're heading for the toaster soon enough.

    In the WC, we don't have the elite teams clustered around 2.00 PPG that we have in the EC, and we don't have the irregular clumping either. It's a nice, pretty even gradation from 1 to 8. No teams have truly stamped their playoff tickets yet, but at least 8 teams are very well positioned to make the playoffs. But things do drop off a cliff after 8th place. MIN and HOU are both pretty close to toast. They need points, and they need the current mid-table teams to falter. Meanwhile, COL and SJE have been toast for quite some time, but as they are COL and SJE, I saw no reason to note their toastings. SJE could be burnt toast within the week.

    What's the upshot? The trends we saw last year continue. The more we expand, the harder it will be for bottom of the table teams to survive beyond August (maybe even July). And today, for the first time in years, the playoff line is smack in the middle of one table. To be playoff viable in the WC, you need to get up around the 50th percentile. Expand again in the future, and keep the playoff teams at 6 per conference, and that percentile goes up even higher. If making the playoffs is the minimum mark of success in MLS, then achieving MLS success is becoming more and more difficult.

    And the real interest remains the middle of the table, which either means the most important, hardest fought games are all evenly matched toss-ups, or it means the most important, hardest fought games are all bumbling affairs contested by inconsistent mediocrities. Though I may wish for the former, I know it's the latter.

    -- -- --

    Quick Hits

    I went with LAX. I thought seriously about going with CHV, or even CHV (because, let's face it, they are CHV in disguise), but in the end it came down to LAF or LAX, and I went with the X. Why "X"? It's a placeholder, as noted here.

    For CLB I thought about switching to ATX or even SAC, as I hear those are possibilities. If you guys prefer, I can certainly make the switch.

    DCU: 5th best home team, 5th worst away team.

    MIN is on the verge of toast and faces the toughest schedule in the league.

    COL also has a tough schedule, which means there's still hope for a WS race.

    I'm thinking the SS is won by an EC team.

    3.21 Goals Per Game, if you're into that sort of thing.

    ATL is 0.17 PPG better away than at home.

    League disparity is higher than it's been since 2001. (Probably more on that later.)

    No teams have yet been eliminated from the WS or SS. That will likely change this week.

    -- -- --

    Housekeeping

    Same as always: Full updates once a week. Mini-updates as warranted. Some updates half-assed. Others full-assed.

    -- -- --

    If toast toasts on the table, but there is no toast thread to toast the toasted, does the toast toast? (The Toaster Sutra)​

    -- -- --
     
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  2. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    tl;dr

    No mention of me. Bored. Your team sucks. So does mine.
     
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  3. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    It's @Sounders78's fault.
     
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  4. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    I really don't like that guy.
     
  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    He's almost as bad as @sitruc.
     
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  6. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Praise be to Toast Jesus!!

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. pr0ner

    pr0ner Member+

    Jan 13, 2007
    Alexandria, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All hail @Knave, the master of Toast Jesus.
     
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  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    BalanceUT and crazypete13 repped this.
  9. POdinCowtown

    POdinCowtown Member+

    Jan 15, 2002
    Columbus
    What are TFC's chances? They seem more confident than their record would suggest they should be.
     
  10. RafaLarios

    RafaLarios Member+

    Oct 2, 2009
    Medellín
    Club:
    Atletico Nacional
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    #10 RafaLarios, Aug 13, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2018
    has there been a year where at the first post of the toast thread 3 teams are already toasted???

    I remember one or two, but not 3.

    Also I am lazy to look it up :p
     
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  11. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    First page!
     
  12. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    In 2013 there were 5 toasted teams by contemporary standards as of the August 23 opening post.
     
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  13. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Or June, in the Rapids case (I called them essentially toast on June 1st. I would never supersede Toast Jesus' right to declare toast, but it was clear where the Rapids were headed).
     
  14. PTFC in KCMO

    PTFC in KCMO Member+

    Aug 12, 2012
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Mmmmm. Tasty, tasty toast!!!!!
     
  15. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    So, BYU Football ....

    Looking at previous years, I think we may have teams where "home field" is no longer really as advantageous as it was in the past.

    "Chivas in disguise" made me think of "robots in disguise". It does work with the music.
     
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  16. jaykoz3

    jaykoz3 Member+

    Dec 25, 2010
    Conshohocken, PA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    upload_2018-8-13_19-47-12.jpeg
    upload_2018-8-13_19-47-21.jpeg
    upload_2018-8-13_19-47-32.jpeg
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  17. KCbus

    KCbus Moderator
    Staff Member

    United States
    Nov 26, 2000
    Reynoldsburg, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just admit it. The reason it took you so long to finally start this thread was because after all these years of doing this, it was taking you longer and longer and longer to come up with original material for your opening monologue.
     
  18. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
  19. crazypete13

    crazypete13 Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 7, 2007
    A walk from BMO
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Maillard Reaction be praised!
     
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  20. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Original material? Ahahahaha ... :whistling:
     
  21. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And here I was all excited because my one moment of “brilliance” on this forum still rated inclusion.
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Oh, did I forget to delete that?
     
  23. Geneva

    Geneva LA for Life

    Feb 5, 2003
    Southern Cal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Legend of Toast abides.

    You should Twitterrize this.
     
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  24. SoccerMan94043

    SoccerMan94043 Member+

    May 29, 2003
    San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How does one do that?
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Geneva repped this.

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