The 2013 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Fishy Figures [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 23, 2013.

Tags:
  1. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I said maybe I’d come back in 2013. Bad news: you should have believed the threat!

    Preliminary Notes – aka all that junk you should probably skip.

    Most of you are familiar with this thread. It’s been going on for years: 2007, 2008 (which I can’t track down), 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 (credit @aletheist). It’s also had some companion threads on the DC United board: 2010 and 2012. I note all this for the benefit of the uninitiated, and so I have the links handy when I want to refer to the old threads from time to time.

    Actually, there’s one other post and thread that I should link here: @Yoshou’s “Blind Squirrel Theory,” and my thread about that theory on the DC United board. This all pertains to parity, and the fact that parity in MLS is diminishing, which makes a big difference for the playoff races. MLS is becoming a league of haves and have-nots: those teams with money and/or brains, and those teams without money and/or brains. (While we’re at it, here’s a graph showing the change in parity as reflected in the PPG spread of non-expansion teams.)

    I am, of course, obliged to say a word about the despair numbers. I developed these because I’m a DC United supporter, and therefore believe in a strict economy of hope. I want to know exactly how much hope I should have, how quickly my hope should be fading, and the exact moment when I should have no hope at all. That’s what the despair numbers can tell you. I started watching them in 2010, and I changed how they are calculated in 2012 (in part because of the split table, and in part because of the growing disparity in MLS). If you really want to see what they’re all about, see here and here. Or stay tuned. I’m sure I’ll have to explain them eventually.

    Finally, I think the current software stinks for posting tables. Sure, it’s possible, but it’s nowhere near as flexible (or as elegant) as the old way. So for the time being I’m posting all the tables as images. If a better solution presents itself, that might change. (Actually, looking at the tables on the thread here, I'll probably try to make them a little easier to read in the future. Bear with me.)

    Enough of that. Onto the tables ...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The Playoff Race

    It’s not even September, and two teams, DCU and CHV, are already burnt toast. No, neither has been eliminated officially. Their tragic numbers are still above zero. But their despair numbers are over 3.00. There’s no way for those teams to catch up to the playoff contenders. As for TFC, they’re toast, and soon enough they’ll be burnt toast. It’s over for them too.

    That means each conference has 8 playoff viable teams.

    In the west, SJE is falling fast. They are solid at home, 4th best in the league. But they are being pummeled on the road. Only DCU has a worse road record than SJE. They are one or two bad results away from truly being toast.

    That leaves VAN, COL and FCD. FCD is questionable, to say the least. They too are falling behind, this latest win against mighty CHV notwithstanding. But VAN and COL have tough schedules. That may be an equalizer. The race between these three teams could last until the final weeks, and might even be decided by the home-and-home regular season finale between COL and VAN.

    In the east, things are looking tough for CMB. To make a legitimate push, they’d have to outperform every other team in the league for the remainder of the season. The CD# is probably the minimum PPG pace a team will need for the rest of the season, not to make the playoffs, but just to sniff at the playoffs. For CMB, that number is already at 2.0 PPG. The AD#, which reflects the actual table (rather than a calculated percentile) is even worse. That said, I tend to weigh the CD# more because the AD# can be kind of volatile. CMB’s hopes should be fading fast. (The numbers are only slightly better for SJE.)

    CHI and NER fans should be worried. Unlike in the west, there’s a gap just beginning to form in the east. It’s right between PHI and NER, and is reflected mostly in the PPG figures (and also the AD#). This weekend’s PHI-@NER game will go a long way toward determining the shape of the eastern conference playoff race. If PHI wins, that little gap could start to look like a gulf, and if NER wins, then we could have some interesting playoff races in both conferences.

    Quick Shots

    Three teams are in real contention for the Wooden Spoon. But I have faith that DCU can overcome their easy schedule and win it.

    Seriously: why does San Jose suck so bad on the road?

    And why does SKC suck so bad at home when they’re top of the league on the road?

    In recent years CHV has tended to play better on the road than at home. This year they are doing twice as well at home as on the road. Which isn’t saying much.

    In fact, there are no teams in MLS currently playing worse at home than on the road. (This is somewhat unusual.)

    There’s a decent chance that teams will fail to make the playoffs this year despite having winning records. (There’s a lesson about league disparity in there. Those teams won’t have winning records because the league is so even, but because some teams in this league are just plain awful.)

    This year too we’re looking at all playoff bound teams having PTS over 50. In a 34 game season, that means over 1.50 PPG. That’s way above the old 1.33 PPG historical figure, which used to be considered the playoff minimum. (Hence the old anecdotal 40 PT playoff cutoff line for a 30 game season.) Again, parity ain’t what it used to be.

    On that topic, the eastern table is what I increasingly expect MLS league tables to look like: a cluster at the top, a gap, a cluster at the bottom. I expect this to get more pronounced in both the conference and overall tables as teams come into playoff form and make their final push.

    DCU is very close to being eliminated from SS contention. This will not surprise any DCU supporters.

    RSL is very close to being eliminated from WS contention. This is good news for us DCU supporters who have high hopes for winning some regular season hardware in 2013. The less competition for the Wooden Spoon the better!

    The USOC could very well be played between the SS winners and the WS winners. I’m sure that upsets many people. It delights me.

    2.59 GPG overall so far this season. People are always worrying about that number.

    More on Numbers and Tables

    On these threads I typically just do old fashioned, basic arithmetic number crunching. But there are people out there doing more complex analyses. So I like to list some of those here along with a few other MLS numbers and tables related links. Please suggest other links.

    - MLS at SportsClubStats

    - MLS Tiebreakers

    -
    MLS Table at ESPNFC
    - MLSSoccer Standings
    - MLSSoccer Results Map

    The Usual Disclaimers

    I always make mistakes in this thread. (Always.) And there’s always some glitch in the spreadsheet, especially early on. Also, I'm known to get confused and screw things up. So if you see an error, just let me know and I’ll correct it ASAP.

    My predictions are usually wrong. Except when they are right.

    Full updates once a week, mini-updates as warranted … starting tonight.
     
    AndyMead, Sachsen, sitruc and 38 others repped this.
  2. YilmazOrhan

    YilmazOrhan Well Brian, I hit it first time...

    Jun 18, 2006
    Suburbia, Kansas
    Club:
    Kansas City Wizards
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    "And why does SKC suck so bad at home when they’re top of the league on the road?"

    Most teams come in here playing for the draw from the first minute, and we're not very good at breaking them down.
     
  3. derek750

    derek750 Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Glad to have this thread back again...
     
    henryo repped this.
  4. Totoro

    Totoro Member+

    Dec 3, 2009
    Colorado
    I was surprised to see the home records for Western Conference teams. Only three teams have more than one home loss:

    Chivas USA (whom I guess everyone would expect), but also the two teams at altitude: RSL and Colorado.
     
    henryo and Q*bert Jones III repped this.
  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    You're right.

    [​IMG]

    Western teams in gray.

    Also interesting is how far down the table that trend extends. VAN and FCD are pretty middling. But even SJE way down at 15th has only one home loss. (They've also got 9 road losses, though.)
     
    henryo repped this.
  6. vividox

    vividox Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 10, 2005
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    DC United is actually already eliminated from SS contention.

    If they win their remaining games, that puts them at 43, then Portland and Real Salt Lake play each other twice more, if they draw one and Portland wins the other, that puts them both on 43. If both teams were to then lose their remaining games, that would put Seattle on 43, Colorado on 42, and Vancouver on 42. Then you still have the following match-ups:

    Seattle v Colorado
    Colorado v Vancouver
    Vancouver v Colorado
    Vancouver v Seattle

    So no matter what, some team will end up with more than 43 points due to the remaining schedule. So it's impossible for DC United to win the Supporters Shield.


    And actually, with as close as the standings are, this methodology shows that Toronto and Chivas are already very, very, very close to mathematical elimination as well.
     
    crazypete13, BHTC Mike, henryo and 2 others repped this.
  7. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    That's another reason why I like this thread. Somebody always comes along to factor in the schedule effects.

    So DCU can't win the SS. I guess I should go off and be sad.
     
    henryo, jayd8888 and American Brummie repped this.
  8. Golazo

    Golazo Member+

    Apr 15, 1999
    Decatur, GA USA
    ¡¡¡¡Yaaaaaay!!!!
     
  9. OldRetiredCoach

    Feb 22, 2003
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks for all the work Knave. I look forward to this thread every year.
     
    henryo repped this.
  10. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Notes and Asterisks


    SKC sinks below PHI with the loss. CHI jumps over NER with the win. The mid-table gap in the Eastern Conference table still exists, but it's been cut almost in half ... for the moment.

    * @vividox does the dirty work and concludes that DC United has already been eliminated from SS contention.
     
    henryo repped this.
  11. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    There's a typo in the tables key. That should be 6th, not 16th in the M# formula. Corrected version below.

    [​IMG]
     
    henryo repped this.
  12. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

    Sep 5, 2006
    Alief
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Houston is @ Montreal today. You don't have the game listed in your Remaining schedule.

    Great work! The playoff race has only begun when @Knave posts his Despair thread!
     
    Hachiko and Knave repped this.
  13. Kejsare

    Kejsare Member+

    Portland Timbers
    Mar 10, 2010
    Virginia
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I noticed for Portland you have all the right teams but not the right order of remaining matches. It didn't look right when Portland ends the season on a 4 match away stand. It should read:

    @SEA, @RSL, TFC, @CUSA, COL, LAG, @VAN, SEA, RSL, @CUSA.

    I haven't checked if this is the same issue with others.
     
    henryo and Knave repped this.
  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Got it. Thanks. I checked several others (but not all) and they were OK. I compiled them all the exact same way, so I'm not sure why that one got jumbled.
     
  15. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Great work as always! Any chance of changing Columbus to CLB?
     
  16. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    after all the games this weekend, am looking forward to the crazy math on a dcu elimination (if they lose to tfc)
     
  17. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Oh, boy! It's here! The traditional Crewligan complaints about CMB! :D

    Best arguments for CLB are that it's a fairly common abbreviation for the city (I think), and those are the leading consonants for each syllable in Columbus.

    Best arguments for CMB are that it's not an unknown abbreviation for Columbus, it's what I've always used, and it seems to irritate the Crewligans.

    Hmm ...
     
    henryo, AndyMead, 15 to 32 and 8 others repped this.
  18. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Or you could really mess things up and use their airport code: CMH
     
    Knave repped this.
  19. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Quick Notes

    Fine. I'll change it. CMB is dead. Long live CLB. In other news, CLB is toast.

    Big drop for HOU. VAN slips behind COL.

    PPG leading MTL has 3 games in hand over PTS leading RSL.

    RSL can no longer win the Wooden Spoon. DCU can no longer win the SS.

    One number of note: look at POR's winning percentage. That team really doesn't lose too often.
     
    jayd8888, henryo, hardhead and 1 other person repped this.
  20. Hachiko

    Hachiko The Akita on Big Soccer

    Jun 8, 2005
    Long Beach, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Comulbus, I hardly knew ye...
     
  21. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... Tremendous Competitive Parody Update ...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Quick Notes

    This really wasn't a decisive weekend for the playoff race. Except maybe for CLB.

    If you wanted a tight Eastern Conference playoff race, you should be thrilled about today's results. In fact, except for the CHI draw against FCD, pretty much everything that could have happened this weekend to tighten up the middle of that table did happen: NER beat PHI, HOU lost (badly) to MTL, and NYR lost (embarrassingly) to CHV.

    The question in the Western Conference is whether SEA is real. They're now third in the league on PPG, and they've got 3 games in hand over RSL, and one over MTL. If they win 2 out of their next 3 games (which they probably should), then their home game against RSL will be important for the SS race. Even with tonight's loss, POR is still a pretty safe bet for the playoffs. I've already discounted SJE, and I think FCD is in trouble. That leaves VAN and COL, both of which have very tough schedules. Plus, while POR plays both of those teams once, COL and VAN face each other twice more this season: they can't both get maximum points in those games. Were I to hazard a guess, I'd say that VAN is more likely to take that 5th spot than COL, mostly on account of a much easier schedule.

    At the bottom of the table, CHV's win over NYR surely bolstred DCU's chances of winning the WS. And if DCU loses next week, 6 more teams will be eliminated from WS contention.
     
    El Naranja, tab5g, nlsanand and 6 others repped this.
  22. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I think I've worked out that currently DCU may still be able to qualify on 38 points considering other matches between playoff contenders. This assumes Houston, Montreal, SKC, and New York qualify to the playoffs. The bar moves up to 39 with a Philly point, or New England point in their next match. So we could see our first mathematical elimination this weekend.
     
  23. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Seattle's going to have some sub-strength teams for a few of those games in hand.

    In September they play:

    2 days before USMNT World Cup Qualifer
    1 day after USMNT World Cup Qualifer (but between USMNT games)
    3 days after UMNT World Cup Qualifer

    At least those are all home games, but you could easily be without Dempsey, E.Johnson, and Brad Evans for 2 games, plus dealing with them all having played 2 WC qualifers for that 3rd game and possibly being tired/ jet-lagged, injured, etc.

    In October they play:

    2 days before USMNT World Cup Qualifer
    2 days after USMNT World Cup Qualifer (but between USMNT games) (on the road @ Portland)
    4 days after USMNT World Cup Qualifer (and on the road @ Dallas)


    Also, Obafemi Martins has Nigeria games:
    Sep 7 and very likely one in Oct 11-15 and another in Nov 15-19

    So while the games in hand look great on paper, I don't think they can afford to count on them very much.
     
    Ismitje and henryo repped this.
  24. revsfan603

    revsfan603 Member

    New England Revolution
    Jun 20, 2013
    New Hampshire
    Club:
    ADO Den Haag
    on a side note look at how easy the revs schedule is for the rest of the season, they could easily make the playoffs, if they can just win against chicago and houston or new york and then covert on all the gimmy games against toronto, dc, and Columbus, they should easily mkae the play offs.
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I don't post it here all the time, but I track something I call the Mobility Number (MB#). It answers one question: all other things being equal, how hard would it be for a team to move up the table one spot. Or, in other words, how difficult will it be for a team be become upwardly mobile.

    The MB# means a team must attain a "#.##" PPG pace for the remainder of the season to outpace and thus beat the current pace of the team with the next highest PRJ.​

    Anyway, there's a discussion on the DCU board about the WS. So I looked at the MB# to see how much better DCU would have to play to outpace TFC and CHV as currently projected. (Both those teams have the same PPG pace right now. You could swap their places in this table and the numbers would be the same.) Right now MTL has the best PPG pace in the league with 1.71 PPG. To outpace TFC and CHV, DCU would have to achieve 1.73 PPG for the remainder of the season. Barring something catastrophic at TFC or CHV, I'm thinking that DCU has basically sealed the deal for the WS.

    I'm less convinced that MTL has sealed the deal for the SS, but that's only because they have so many games in hand. I suspect their PPG pace will slow and they won't actually attain their currently projected 58 PTS. But going strictly by the MB#, you'd have to say that RSL will have a really hard time outpacing MTL.

    [​IMG]
     
    MFG North Side, henryo and El Naranja repped this.

Share This Page