(Warning: long, numbers) Too much time on my hands so I was looking at the standings and noticed how LA was dominating the league on goal differential but didn't have the points to match. LA's +15 goal differential leads the league by 2nd place SKC (+10) by 50% and STL (+9) by 67%. On a per game basis - the only fair way to compare - LA outshines its competition even more. Our average margin of victory is +0.75 goals per game which is 74% higher than Seattle and SKC, tied at +0.43 gpg winning margin. But on the most important stat- points per game - we find Seattle leading the league at a blistering 1.95 ppg. LA, SKC and RSL are tied for 2nd-4th place at 1.7 ppg and a hair behind is 5th place DCU at 1.68 ppg. So what? Average goal differential doesn't always predict average points earned. But it is a pretty damn good predictor as shown below. Another way of saying this is that it is hard to earn a lot of points consistently unless you are scoring a lot more goals than your opponents. Some teams can get lucky for a while (STL) and others unlucky (LAG, SJE, NYRB, PHI, MTL; see below) for a while. But in the long run outscoring your opponents by only 9 goals in 21 games as Seattle has done isn't going to get it done. To show how strong a predictor goal differential is of points earned I created a scatter plot and ran a regression for this season MLS. The line is predicting ppg from average margin of victory. You will see its generally an excellent predictor as most of the teams fall very close to this line: That only point way above the predicted ppg line? Seattle. The point to farthest right (best goal differential, highest predicted ppg)? LAG. To calculate the predicted ppg for all of the teams and how far the teams were from predicted I computed the regression equation: predicted ppg = 1.35 + .65*goal differential per game As you can see the regression equation is actually very accurate. Almost all the points are very close to the line. The biggest exception by far on the positive side is Seattle with 0.33 more ppg game than predicted. The actual numbers behind the graph plus the predicted ppg are listed below. The table (and the graph) show that according to their average scoring margin Seattle would typically earn 1.6 ppg and LA 1.8 ppg. Multiply that over say 20 games and you would expect LA to have 36 pts and STL to be at 32 points. Here are the actual numbers behind the graph, listed in order of predicted ppg: Club GD GDPG PPG Pred Diff LAG 15 0.75 1.70 1.83 -0.13 SKC 10 0.43 1.70 1.63 0.07 STL 9 0.43 1.95 1.62 0.33 RSL 9 0.39 1.70 1.60 0.10 DCU 8 0.36 1.68 1.58 0.10 FCD 6 0.26 1.57 1.52 0.05 VAN 4 0.18 1.45 1.46 -0.01 SJE 3 0.15 1.20 1.44 -0.24 TFC 2 0.10 1.52 1.41 0.11 COL 1 0.04 1.30 1.38 -0.08 NYRB 1 0.04 1.22 1.38 -0.16 POR 0 0.00 1.30 1.35 -0.05 PHI -1-0.04 1.17 1.32 -0.15 COL -3-0.13 1.17 1.26 -0.09 CHI -5-0.23 1.14 1.20 -0.06 NER -6-0.27 1.18 1.17 0.01 CHV -15-0.68 1.05 0.91 0.14 HOU -19-0.86 1.00 0.79 0.21 MTL -19-0.86 0.64 0.79-0.15 So this is a long winded way of saying that LA is actually playing quite well and are unlucky to not be leading the league. If LA continue to outscore their competition by 15 goals per 20 games they should be in great shape. (Especially since the only way they will get 20 more games is to win the MLS Cup!) Meanwhile Seattle has been incredibly lucky in the points earned department and we can all expect the annual Seattle swoon, coming soon to your MLS!
Is STL the official abbreviation for Seattle? I thought it was SEA. I usually associate STL with St. Louis.
It probably comes down to consistency and how they are winning and losing. Is LA consistently outscoring their opponents per game or is the GD skewed by having several blowout wins. Seattle's Record (37 GF-28 GA) SEA-Opp: 1-0, 1-2, 2-0, 1-2, 4-4, 3-2, 2-1, 4-1, 2-1,2 -1,0-5, 1-0, 2-2, 4-0, 3-2, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-3, 0-1, 2-0 LA's Record (34 GF - 19 GA) LA-Opp: 0-1, 1-1, 3-0, 1-0, 2-2, 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 2-1, 4-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0, 2-2, 1-0, 5-1, 1-2, 3-0, 3-1, 2-2 Blowout Wins (3 goals or more) LA: 4 gms, combined score of 15-2 (13 GD) SEA: 2 gms, combined score of 8-1 Blowout Losses (3 goals or more) LA: 0 gms SEA: 2 gms, combined score of 0-8 Shutout W's LA: 4 gms, combined score of 8-0 SEA: 7 gms, combined score of 13-0 1 GF Games LA: 8 games, 8-6 SEA: 5 games, 5-4 Median (and most telling) LA: 1 GF - 1 GA SEA: 2 GF - 1 GA So based on the median and obviously the points accrued, Seattle is just simply outscoring their opponents on a more consistent basis compared to LA. LA's goal differential is skewed by it's blowout wins while Seattle's is skewed by the couple of blowout losses.
While I appreciate the effort, @skydog, there is one and only one measure of a team that matters: the record.
Haha, I knew this post would put everyone to sleep. Anyway obviously record is the only thing that matters in the end. But if you happen to be curious about how your team and other teams are likely to do over the rest of the season an analysis like this is useful. Because a team that has been getting more points than expected based on their goal differential is likely to regress to the mean over the rest of the season and vice-versa. You would find that to be true in any league in the world that is in mid-season (or thereabouts) if you did an analysis like mine. I just thought it was interesting to know that we (LAG) have been "running bad" (by a little) in the points department and SEA has been running good (by a lot). And as much as we might not like to hear it - SJE have been running even worse than us.
"Projected Finishes of 2014 Regular Season, base on the Most Recent Meetings", through games on 2014-08-17: L.A. to finish 2nd in the West (3rd Overall) for a shot at their 3rd MLS Cup in 4 seasons... Seattle still going to win the West & Supporters' Shield in 2014!! SKC still going to top the East, & qualify for CCL 2015-16. Dallas to move ahead of Vancouver, into the last Playoffs spot in the West. Toronto to make the Playoffs for the first time in history! Chicago still going to set a new record for the Most Ties (20) in a season, but miss the Playoffs. Montreal still going to capture the Wooden Spoon...
Projection of L.A.'s remaining games by the Most Recent Meetings in 2014, 2013 or even 2012 (for opponents from the Opposite Conference): http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/team/matc...0&teamLeagueId=0&year=2014&matches=0&result=0 2014-08-16 Columbus Crew (A): Most Recent at Columbus in 2012: 1-1 Tie. -- Actual: 1-4 Loss. 2014-08-20 Colorado Rapids (A): Most Recent at Colorado on 2014-05-03: 0-1 Loss. -- Actual: 4-3 Win. 2014-08-23 Vancouver Whitecaps FC (H): Most Recent at L.A on 2014-04-12: 1-0 Win. -- Actual: 2-0 Win. 2014-08-27 D.C. United (H) - Most Recent at L.A. in 2012: 3-1 Win. 2014-08-31 CD Chivas USA (A) - 3-0 Win. 2014-09-05 Colorado Rapids (H) - 0-1 Loss. 2014-09-10 Montreal Impact (A) - 1-1 Tie. 2014-09-14 San Jose Earthquakes (A) - 1-0 Win. 2014-09-20 FC Dallas (H) - 2-1 Win. 2014-09-28 New York Red Bulls (H) - 0-1 Loss. 2014-10-04 Toronto FC (H) - 4-2 Win. 2014-10-12 FC Dallas (A) - 3-3 Tie. 2014-10-19 Seattle Sounders FC (H) - 1-1 Tie. 2014-10-25 Seattle Sounders FC (A) - 3-0 Win. That would be a run of 6W-2L-3T for their last 11 games (21 points), adding on top of the current 11W-5L-7T through Aug-24 (40 points), for an eventual record of 17W-7L-10T (61 points). Not good enough to win their 5th Supporters' Shield in 2014, though the 5th MLS Cup should be the focus this season, as always. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Projected Finishes of 2014 Regular Season, base on the Most Recent Meetings", through games on 2014-08-24: Seattle will win the West & the Shield in 2014!! L.A. Galaxy will move up to 2nd in the West & the Shield, just a point behind Seattle. SKC will top the East, and qualify for CCL in 2015-16. D.C. United and Dallas are closing in on the Top-3 teams. Toronto will make the Playoffs for the first time in history! Chicago will not just finish with the Most Ties (20) in a season all-time, but miss the Playoffs with the Fewest Losses league-wide (another new record)!! Chivas will finish at the bottom of the West for 3rd-straight season. Montreal will capture the Wooden Spoon...
I still think it comes down to those final two games between LA and Seattle. If either team can take 4 or more points they win the Shield, 3 or fewer points Seattle probably squeaks it, but opens the door for SKC or DC. // edit: forgot about RSL they’re in with a shout if LA/SEA drop points in those final two games, which would mean the post season would be LA/SEA.
The problem is that we are chasing three teams in our own division, and we need to win Wednesday not only to cash the game-in-hand but to deny DCU the points. An East Div. team sneaking in to the Supporters Shield still scares me.
I find this site to be the most interesting when looking at these kind of projections: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html According to them, our current probability of winning the SS is 19.5% (third behind SEA & DC). If we win midweek, that shoots up to 27.8% Our probability of winning MLS cup is 11.8% -- essentially in a four-way dead heat with Sea, DC, and KC.
Well, the SS is a six-horse race now. As six teams have separated themselves from the pack. Unfortunately, four of those are in the west, so odds are that the west will partially cannibalize itself, as far as points go. So there is a distinct advantage to SKC and DCU in the east...
Well, they have to really get their fans hopes up....so that they can be dashed to the rocks again. I know SSFC has a powerful club, but I have faith in their history of choking away a sure thing.
Official: LA Galaxy thinking Supporters' Shield again after dominant performance vs. Vancouver Whitecaps http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/artic...hield-again-after-dominant-performance-agains
FWIW they also are still tied for the 2nd worst goal differential of the top 6 teams in the league: LAG +15, DCU 13, FCD 12, SEA 10, SKC 10, RSL 9. Leaky defense.
You know, with the double legged playoff rounds before the final, aside from winning the SS and those benefits (Hey, it's a trophy, it's tough to win it playing in the West, and you get into the CCL) the most important thing to me for the MLS Cup is finishing higher than everyone in the East because that means you play two legs against the West like you would anyway, and then have (hopefully) home field for the final. So as we get to the end, and it looks like we might not get the Shield, then the focus has to be getting ahead of DCU and SKC and teams we might meet in a final.
No worries, L.A. will take on 3 of them in the remaining games with potential for Blowouts, being 2nd worst now could soon turn to 2nd best after those...
Yup. But recall, in 2012, we got VERY lucky as Houston was the ONLY seed in the East we had more points than and if that hadn't worked out perfectly, we'd have been playing somewhere on the East Coast instead of the HDC.
And the perfect farewell for Becks... (Old newspapers cuttings below, man I'm nostalgic, ) Hopefully it can be the same or something better for Dons, perhaps?
Let's wait until Game #27 ~ #29, the beginning of Seattle's record collapse as SS Leaders in 2013: 2014-09-12 Real Salt Lake (H) - 2014-09-20 New York Red Bulls (A) - 2014-09-24 FC Dallas (A) - http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/team/team.php?teamId=985 "New Records set in MLS 2013 Regular Season": ... 10. Seattle were Winless in Final 7 games, but still made the playoffs. - Previous Record: RSL winless in final 6 of 2011. ... 12. Seattle's record collapse as SS Leaders 5 rounds before the end (6th/19 overall & 4th/9 in conference). - Previous Record: S.J. of 2002, at least 2nd/10 overall and 2nd/5 in conference.