The 2013 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Fishy Figures [R]

Nah, the ways for SEA to fail to make the playoffs are much more numerous. That series of stuff is for Portland. Teams further down have more games which don't matter, and much more combinations of ways to actually miss qualifying. I'll work on the ways for SEA to fail, but I doubt I'll get too far on that one.

 

Yes, S.J. are officially the first SS Winners since 2006 (D.C.) that failed to defend the trophy in the next season.

Now, they will want to avoid being the first SS Winners since 2007 (D.C.) to miss the playoffs in the next season too...

 

See you at Fan Rivalries, brother.

 

Here's the Seattle scenarios for if they lose out, there are also scenarios if they gain points:
FCD v SEA - FCD must win (48.4%)
COL v VAN - COL must NOT lose (76.1%)
LAG v SJE - SJE must win (18.4%)
SJE v FCD - SJE must win (49.4%)
VAN v COL - COL must NOT lose (51.0%)
SEA v LAG - LAG must win (28.7%)

This assumes that LAG will still maintain its superior goals scored vs. Seattle, otherwise they must not lose v MON. Considering that SEA would need to score at least 11 goals while still losing both of its games, I feel this is a safe assumption.
Overall chances of this scenario: 0.49% or about 1 in 200.

Here's the scenarios for if they draw only against Dallas:
LAG v MON - LAG must NOT lose (78.6%)
FCD v SEA - FCD must tie (24.6%)
COL v VAN - COL must win (51.4%)
LAG v SJE - SJE must win (18.4%)
SJE v FCD - SJE must win (49.4%)
VAN v COL - COL must win (25.7%)
SEA v LAG - LAG must win (28.7%)

Same assumption with LAG means that they must at least get a draw there, it also applies to RSL as well for all of their games, since they would at least end even on wins, and have a much superior goals scored.
Overall chances of this scenario: 0.067% or about 1 in 1500.

Here's the scenarios for if they draw only against LA:
LAG v MON - LAG must win (56.6%)
FCD v SEA - FCD must win (48.4%)
COL v VAN - COL must win (51.4%)
LAG v SJE - SJE must win (18.4%)
SJE v FCD - SJE must win (49.4%)
VAN v COL - COL must win (25.7%)
SEA v LAG - LAG must tie (25.4%)

Again, same assumptions with LAG and RSL apply, but in this scenario, LAG must win against MON to reach that point total.
Overall chances of this scenario: 0.084% or about 1 in 1200.

If Seattle draws both of their remaining games, then both LA and SJE cannot reach them, and thus they will clinch. If they win either of the games, then SJE cannot reach them and they clinch.

So, the overall probability is the sum of the probabilities of these three scenarios:
0.64% or about 1 in 150.

Still a long shot, but, strangely enough, it is about 150 times more likely to happen than the Timbers scenario according to my calculations. =P

 

Columbus fans will sure tell you that's the case. =P

 

Dallas have just set a new record by missing the playoffs despite topping the SS Standings through 13 weeks (doubling the previous record of 6 weeks, set by K.C. in 2006):
http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1547&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=13

If Montreal are to miss out too, the record will be further extended to an amazing 24 weeks...
http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1547&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=24

In the event Seattle are eliminated from the playoffs as well (highly unlikely at 0.5% chance per SportsClubStats),
the bar will be raised to a mind-boggling 29 weeks (just 5 weeks before the end of the season)!!
http://aragon.ws/soccerdb/league/table.php?stageId=1547&matches=0&rounds=1&roundCount=29


"The list of teams that has gone from first place overall to missing the playoffs in each season."

Season	Team(s)	Last Point as Leaders	Eventual Records	Remarks
1996-2000	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2001	Tampa Bay	Game 3: 2-0-1	04-02-21 (12th/12)	Won Wooden Spoon!!
2002	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2003	Columbus	Game 4: 2-1-0	10-08-12 (08th/10)	Missed Playoffs as 5th/5 teams in the East.
2004	Chicago	Game 5: 2-2-1 (3rd)	08-09-13 (10th/10)	Won Wooden Spoon
2005	Columbus	Game 1: 1-0-0	11-05-16 (10th/12)	Missed Playoffs as 6th/6 teams in the East.
2006	K.C.	Game 6: 4-1-1	10-08-14 (11th/12)	Missed Playoffs as 5th/6 teams in the East.
2007	Colorado	Game 2: 1-1-0 (3rd)	09-08-13 (10th/13)	Missed Playoffs as out of Top-8 Overall.
2008	Colorado	Game 1: 1-0-0	11-05-14 (09th/14)	Missed Playoffs as out of Top-8 Overall.
2009	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2010	K.C.	Game 2: 2-0-0	11-06-13 (09th/16)	Missed Playoffs as out of Top-8 Overall.
2011	Vancouver	Game 1: 1-0-0	06-10-18 (18th/18)	Won Wooden Spoon!!
2012	Portland	Game 1: 1-0-0	08-10-16 (17th/19)	Missed Playoffs as 8th/9 teams in the West.
2013	Dallas	Game 13: 08-3-2	06-8-18 (thru. Oct-13)	Missed Playoffs as 8th/9 in the West, 16th/19 Overall
2013*	Montreal	Game 24: 12-5-7	13-7-11 (thru. Oct-13)	Currently in playoffs picture at 4th/10 in the East, 10th/19 Overall
2013*	Seattle	Game 29: 15-6-8	15-6-11 (thru. Oct-13)	Currently in playoffs picture at 3rd/9 in the West, 5th/19 Overall

Quick Notes:

1. The previous record for "the latest point in a season that a team has gone from first place overall to missing the playoffs" was Game 6, by '06 K.C..

2. '01 Tampa, '04 Chicago and '11 Vancouver were the only Overall Leaders that have gone from first to last and won the Wooden Spoon!!

3. In 2013, 5 teams (Montreal, Dallas, RSL, Seattle & NYRB) have took turns to lead the SS Race. Through Oct-13:

• Dallas are out of playoffs,
  
• Montreal may miss out too,
• Seattle are not entirely safe yet,
• RSL have almost clinched a spot,
• NYRB are the only SS leaders in 2013 guaranteed of playoffs so far.

 

Wow, so if I've read that right:
Prior to this season, if you've lead the standings at any point after week six, you've made the playoffs. Then this season came and completely threw that safety net out the window.
My, this has been a topsy-turvy season.

 

Hipster Central and Hipster South, they're all the hipster same to Knave.

 

The SS is definitely a poisoned chalice this year. I guess we can safely assume NYRB is about to crash and burn. Question is will it be now or in the playoffs? If now, then perhaps Portland will finish the year with the SS before crashing out of the playoffs Seattle-style.

 

@Ismitje - Have you and Herbert met?

 

Thanks - he had a friend named Tommy Orsini ready to go as well.

 

I'm pretty sure quite a few players will.

 

The Red Bulls control their own destiny to win the SS, but they can blow it without "choking" like you said by getting a draw at Houston and a win over Chicago. Then they would have played reasonably well and could finish first, second, third, or fourth for the SS.

 

Isn't it about the point in the season that someone makes some comment about how if we had pro/rel then the games would be meaningful at this point?

<looks at table>

Yea, totally wish I had pro/rel over this</sarcasm>

 

Hey, these last couple games are totally meaningless for DCU, TOR, CHV, and FCD. Nevermind the fact that the bottom 3 have been assured of their positions for quite some time now, pro/rel would make those games interesting!
</sarcasm>

 

I keep seeing these vultures circling above, and they look like they're from California.

 

I believe those must be California Condors...presumed extinct yet rising like a phoenix.

 

So you're saying even the San Jose Audubon Society is in on the demise of The Sounders. Truly no one likes us.

 

Actually, the recovery of the California Condor population was due to capture, captive breeding and re-introduction.

But that would make a really weird analogy.

 

Indeed. See Mark Watson showing off his unusual training techniques below.

 

So PDX clinches with an LAG tie or loss v MTL, as then only one of SJE/LAG could catch them.

RSL clinches with an LAG loss, same logic.

That's all I have for Wednesday.

 

Note on this which makes the calculated probabilities a bit off, COL must win at least one of those two games.