John Edwards for President--Part II

Discussion in 'Elections' started by bigredfutbol, Jan 26, 2008.

  1. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Continued from here.
     
  2. dogface

    dogface Let's Just Pretend

    Jun 22, 2002
    St. Peter, MN
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Superdave
    Because he hasn't been close to winning anything, he's out of money and he has even less of a chance with the other super Tuesday states since he has only campaigned in Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina.

    Superdave
    I think Obama would pick up most of the Edwards supporters. And I believe that Clinton wants Edwards to stay in the race now that SC is over.
     
  3. Dan Loney

    Dan Loney BigSoccer Supporter

    Mar 10, 2000
    Cincilluminati
    Club:
    Los Angeles Sol
    Nat'l Team:
    Philippines
    Edwards has no juice now. He should have dropped out while he could have gotten something from Obama (or Clinton, if something disastrous happens on Super Tuesday). I just don't see Edwards doing much more in this campaign.
     
  4. dogface

    dogface Let's Just Pretend

    Jun 22, 2002
    St. Peter, MN
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Well, he's not going to get a VP bid from either Clinton or Obama. He's clearly lost the opportunity to serve as Obama's Attorney General. And now Obama can still peel off the Edwards supporter on super Tuesday without compromising anything.
     
  5. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Well, look on the bright side. At least he publicized the plight of the Sarkissians and hopefully insurance companies will be more careful in the future, lets they become the wipping boy of some second tier candidate trying to get attention.
     
  6. Attacking Minded

    Attacking Minded New Member

    Jun 22, 2002
    BTW - Most news services are reporting that Edwards and Clinton split the SC white vote 40/40 with Obama getting 25%. That doesn't add up. A second look shows it was actually closer to 40% Edwards, 36% She who shall not be named and 25% Obama.

    Edwards won the white vote in SC.
     
  7. BenReilly

    BenReilly New Member

    Apr 8, 2002
    Proving once again that whenever someone uses the word "clearly," matters are anything but clear.
     
  8. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why do you think that? It's counterfactual to the polling data.
     
  9. weipenguigumbi

    weipenguigumbi New Member

    Dec 4, 2007
    Sdave, I'm pretty sure Obama would have picked up 2/3 of Edwards in Nevada, based on second choice voting from the state. I believe he also would have done something similar in Iowa. If you are basing it on pre-voting data I think that stuff is revealing itself to be pretty wonkey. I'm a twenty something from Iowa and pre-caucus I got polled once, my middle aged mother got polled nearly every other day towards the end. Anecdotal, but again I doubt it is unique to Iowa. Young people are hard to find permanent addresses for, many haven't registered until inspired by Obama, so until they're polled, until someone actually figures out if they are gong to vote, I'm pretty skeptical about the pre-vote polls.

    Edwards staying in the race is just puzzling. I've never really had a problem with the man, but for some reason people just do not like the him. He was campaigning in Iowa, literally for years, and nothing, nada. He's not even comming close to winning the people he's campaigning for or his state. He'd be a horrible choice for VP for anyone, because he brings no demographic and no state.
     
  10. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Beacon, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I must have missed when polling data proved inarguable during this campaign.
     
  11. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Again, that's not what polls show.

    I'm a twenty something from Iowa and pre-caucus I got polled once, my middle aged mother got polled nearly every other day towards the end. [/quote]
    Was she getting called for actual opinion polls, or had she been id'd by one of the campaigns as a supporter?

    I don't understand this. What in the world is puzzling about it? Explain it to me. He's done more to drive the policy agenda than Hillary or Obama. He wants to keep that up.

    :confused: Um, he came in second, remember?
     
  12. dogface

    dogface Let's Just Pretend

    Jun 22, 2002
    St. Peter, MN
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Perhaps I overstepped with the word "clearly."
    The papers are still acting as if Edwards has a chance to land the AG position for Obama's hypothetical presidency:

    But I heard that Obama rebuffed Edwards' advances on MSNBC, so who knows?
     
  13. dogface

    dogface Let's Just Pretend

    Jun 22, 2002
    St. Peter, MN
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I just can't personally believe that Edwards supporters would in good conscience support Hillary. But that's because I'm just so turned off by her. I know the polls don't necessarily support this.
     
  14. dogface

    dogface Let's Just Pretend

    Jun 22, 2002
    St. Peter, MN
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    The exit poll data from South Carolina seems to complicate our sense of polls even more than the New Hampshire results.

    South Carolina: More Theories and Exit Polls

     
  15. biggyv

    biggyv Member

    May 18, 2000
    PGH PA
    I think it's funny that pollsters are coming up with any possible theory to explain poll results other than "the methodology doesn't work anymore." It was the Bradley Effect in NH, the Reverse Bradley Effect in SC. Or maybe it's just that voters (particularly younger voters) are harder to pin down, with the widespread use of cellphones, as well as general antipathy toward pollsters.

    This seems to be a case of these people trying to defend their existence.
     
  16. Attacking Minded

    Attacking Minded New Member

    Jun 22, 2002
    So does anyone want to guess how accurate our census was?
     
  17. dogface

    dogface Let's Just Pretend

    Jun 22, 2002
    St. Peter, MN
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    It's like the academic discipline of Anthropology today -- anthropologists can only cannibalize their own discipline, question their own methodology, criticize their own privileged position as an anthropologists, etc. Otherwise, they would be out of a job.
     
  18. weipenguigumbi

    weipenguigumbi New Member

    Dec 4, 2007
    Again, that's not what polls show.


    1. The exit polls from Nevada I heard on TV and can't find, maybe I'm wrong. But what I remember hearing is those who voted for Edwards, when asked in POST-caucus polls if they had to vote for someone else, the majority said they would go for Obama over Clinton. Again I may be wrong, because I can't find anything that says either way. The pre-primary polls have proved themselves inaccurate several times during these campaigns, remember NH?

    Was she getting called for actual opinion polls, or had she been id'd by one of the campaigns as a supporter ?


    2. She was asked by several different opinion groups, Dem and Repub groups, newspapers, canidate's groups, she got hit up by everybody. That's what happens in Iowa, everyone in politics is there pre-caucus. I know of very few people my age who got called more than once or twice, and these are the people who set Obama over the top in Iowa. If 20 somethings are not being polled, pollsters are not getting accurate polls to base anything on.

    I don't understand this. What in the world is puzzling about it? Explain it to me. He's done more to drive the policy agenda than Hillary or Obama. He wants to keep that up.


    3.Edwards can stay in the race, with Mike Gravel, and anyone else who doesn't have a shot (which people who cannot win the people they are advocating for (Unions) and their own state, are generally considered) I really don't care. If he wants to keep Obama and Clinton on message, I wish him the best of luck.

    :confused: Um, he came in second, remember?


    4. I am wrong getting second place in Iowa is not nada. But when you consider the fact that it was only by one percentage point to Clinton, he has gained no momentum from it, that he is very well known in the state because he has been spending significant time here since his loss in 2004, that he spent a large portion of his money in the state only to slowly lose his lead and to be significantly beaten by a person who was unknown by Iowan's until a few months ago, if that's not a red flag you are lacking in appeal I don't know what is.

    Again people who he wants to represent and people who know him well are not voting for him, he got thumped on home turf, if those people aren't taking him seriously, will a significant portion of people within the next few days? And if few people are not taking you seriously can you really do much to drive agendas?

    Again I wish him the best of luck, but I really don't think he's doing much of anything for himself or his agendas.
     
  19. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As for the reverse Bradley effect...all history grad students in US history are told a story. One New Deal/WPA project was to send historians around to find old black people and ask them what slavery was like. Both black and white interviewers were used. Anyway, due to a clerical error, a black historian and a white historian were both sent to a particular person.

    To the white interviewer, the former slave was pretty positive. Massa treated us well. We always had enough food to eat. No, we weren't beaten.

    To the white interviewer...Massa treated us worse than dogs. We hated him. Etc. etc.

    The point being, you can't trust anything. :D
    Every election, pollsters say it takes more and more phone calls per respondent. Maybe the percentage of people who actually respond to an opinion poll now is so low that this self-selected sample is atypical in some important way.
     
  20. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Was the second interviewer Michael Jackson? ;)
     
  21. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    :eek:

    Fixed.
     

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