The new FIFA rankings are out for December. Top 7 teams seeded (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts) Code: Total WC FIFA 1 Brazil 61.3 29.3 32 2 Italy 58.3 27.3 31 3 Germany 57.3 30.3 27 4 England 54.3 26.3 28 5 France 52.3 23.3 29 6 Argentina 51.0 21.0 30 7 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25 -------------------------------- 8 Spain 46.3 25.3 21 9 Netherlands 40.7 14.7 26 10 Sweden 38.3 19.3 19 11 Ukraine 36.7 16.7 20 12 Mexico 33.3 19.3 14 13 Switzerland 31.3 15.3 16 14 Czech Republic 29.0 6.0 23 15 Croatia 27.0 9.0 18 16 Ecuador 27.0 17.0 10 17 Nigeria 26.7 2.7 24 18 Cameroon 25.0 3.0 22 19 USA 22.7 13.7 9 20 Cote d'Ivoire 21.0 6.0 15 21 Korea Republic 17.7 15.7 2 22 Australia 17.3 11.3 6 23 Greece 17.0 0.0 17 24 Japan 16.3 13.3 3 25 Uruguay 13.7 2.7 11 26 Guinea 13.0 0.0 13 27 Iran 12.3 5.3 7 28 Egypt 12.0 0.0 12 29 Colombia 8.0 0.0 8 30 Uzbekistan 5.0 0.0 5 31 Cuba 4.0 0.0 4 32 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 Romania replaced by Guinea. Much of the following was originally written by eldiablito and scaryice, so credit to them. Also thanks to eldiablito for doing this last time for many months and scaryice for doing this in the last months. FAQ Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings? Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula. What is the seeding formula used for? The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage. What is the seeding formula exactly? The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings. Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3 Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3 Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years. How is the world cup performance determined? 0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year. The 16 teams that didn't make it out of the group stage are ranked (Points, GD, GF). The bottom 8 get 8 points each. The top 8 get 9 points each. All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points. How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded? Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. If two or more teams have the same FIFA ranking, the points are not divided among them. Instead, the one shown first in the FIFA rankings gets the most points and so on. How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula? I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 13 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 13 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind. 13-UEFA 4.5-CONMEBOL 3.5-CONCACAF 5.0-AFC+OFC 6.0-CAF Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula? No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994. Previous Editions July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006
Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, South Africa Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine Pot 3: Australia, Cuba, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Guinea, Nigeria, Uruguay Group A: South Africa, Netherlands, Japan, Uruguay Group B: France, Croatia, Mexico, Nigeria Group C: Brazil, Greece, Uzbekistan, Cameroon Group D: England, Spain, Korea Republic, Guinea Group E: Argentina, Ukraine, Australia, Egypt Group F: Italy, Sweden, Cuba, Cote d'Ivoire Group G: Portugal, Czech Republic, Iran, Ecuador Group H: Germany, Switzerland, USA, Colombia
what happens if a seeded team does not qualify...I'm pretty sure Egypt will find a way not to qualify, they always do.
Egypt is not a seeded team - only the top 8 are. The rest are distributed geographically. Until teams are actually qualified these threads simply use the highest ranking members of each confederation to illustrate a sample draw, rather than guess at who will make it.
Just for fun, I computed how the seeding would work for the upcoming Fifa Women's World Cup. Seeded teams would be China PR (host), Germany, USA, Sweden. Norway finishes behind Sweden according to the calculations. WWC 2007 Seeding Thread https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=457457
February update: The new FIFA rankings are out for February. Ghana/Mali/Paraguay replace Egipt/Guinea/Colombia. Portugal no longer seeded. Top 7 teams seeded (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts) Code: 1 Brazil 60.3 29.3 31 2 Italy 59.3 27.3 32 3 Germany 58.3 30.3 28 4 England 53.3 26.3 27 5 France 52.3 23.3 29 6 Argentina 51.0 21.0 30 7 Spain 48.3 25.3 23 ------------------------------ 8 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25 9 Netherlands 40.7 14.7 26 10 Ukraine 38.7 16.7 22 11 Mexico 35.3 19.3 16 12 Switzerland 34.3 15.3 19 13 Czech Republic 30.0 6.0 24 14 Croatia 30.0 9.0 21 15 Ecuador 29.0 17.0 12 16 Ghana 27.3 13.3 14 17 USA 24.7 13.7 11 18 Paraguay 21.7 11.7 10 19 Cote d'Ivoire 21.0 6.0 15 20 Greece 20.0 0.0 20 21 Cameroon 20.0 3.0 17 22 Korea Republic 19.7 15.7 4 23 Japan 18.3 13.3 5 24 Romania 18.0 0.0 18 25 Australia 17.3 11.3 6 26 Uruguay 15.7 2.7 13 27 Iran 14.3 5.3 9 28 Nigeria 9.7 2.7 7 29 Mali 8.0 0.0 8 30 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 31 Uzbekistan 3.0 0.0 3 32 Cuba 2.0 0.0 2
Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Switzerland, Ukraine Pot 3: Australia, Cuba, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan Pot 4: Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay Group A: South Africa, Ukraine, Korea Republic, Paraguay Group B: England, Greece, USA, Cote d'Ivoire Group C: Brazil, Portugal, Iran, Nigeria Group D: Spain, Netherlands, Uzbekistan, Ghana Group E: France, Switzerland, Cuba, Uruguay Group F: Italy, Croatia, Mexico, Ecuador Group G: Germany, Romania, Japan, Mali Group H: Argentina, Czech Republic, Australia, Cameroon