2010 Seeding Formula: July 2006 update

Using the WC 2006 system to determine the pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan
Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Special pot: Romania

Mock draw:

Group A: South Africa, Croatia, Honduras, Uruguay
Group B: Spain, Ukraine, Japan, Cameroon
Group C: Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Nigeria
Group D: France, Denmark, Australia, Paraguay
Group E: England, Portugal, Mexico, Guinea
Group F: Italy, Sweden, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Group G: Argentina, Netherlands, Iran, Cote d'Ivoire
Group H: Brazil, Switzerland, USA, Romania

 

Fixed.

 

I would love such a World Cup. Just look at the teams. Almost no weaklings.

South Africa will most likely have an easy draw, as they will miss any African opposition form the 4 pot meaning they will get at worst teams like Mexico and Paraguay. Plus they have a chance at have a weak European team.

There will be three/four candidates for groups of death - those hosting Cameroon, Nigeria, Ivory Coast and most likely Ghana (not Guinea).

Even at your mock draw you have groups with Germany, Czech Rep and Nigeria; with England, Portugal, Mexico and Ghana/Guinea; with Argnetina, Holland and Ivory Coast. Plus you have a high probality of a group of death with such a team as Romania.

 

Group G looks pretty familiar

 

And H looks like a world of pain. Like Group F this year, only with 3 stronger teams behind Brazil.

 

From what I remember (yeah, I could go look it up), this type post from '02 had the seeds accurately. That is, 3 years of confederation cups and qualifying made no difference.

So, with South Africa hosting, Mexico is shut out. Even more so with the new FIFA ranking formula.

I suppose, with the shorter window of games being measured and the steep dropoff in the value of games between this year and the previous years, the FIFA rankings will be more volatile. If so, then we should see Asia (yeah, they've drifted away from the 'every 4 years' tournament), Africa, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL countries ranked a little higher at the end of '07 than UEFA.

Probably won't matter. Looks like this year the US's only shot for many years, maybe Mexico's as well. Needed to get better luck in the draw.

Sure would like to see someone else sneak in there. Mabye Switzerland with a European Cup homefield advantage win. Wouldn't that be weird.

 

I'm confused on Part B. I though they used December of all four years -- 06 - 09. Draw is done in December of '09 for the '10 WC. Aren't you missing a 4th ranking?

 

I tend to agree, as long as Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain qualify for the next WC, they'll almost certainly have a seed.

 

Ah. Cool. Went back to confirm (just for my own sanity). That looks right now.

In which case, because everyone but UEFA have confederation championships in 07 and 09, there is a slight chance that someone other than the ones listed could sneak in and capture a seed.

But not likely.

Look for two groups of death 4 years from now -- one with the US and one with Mexico.

 

Here's an article on this subject by Paul Marcutti at Planet World Cup. http://www.planetworldcup.com/GUESTS/paul20060719.html and his table showing the current seeding points:

Code:

                   PWC    RP    TOT
* Brazil          29.33 32.00 61.33
* Italy           27.33 31.00 58.33
* England         26.33 28.00 54.33
* Germany         30.33 24.00 54.33
* France          23.33 29.00 52.33
* Spain           25.33 26.00 51.33
* Argentina       21.00 30.00 51.00
  Portugal        22.33 25.00 47.33
  Netherlands     14.67 27.00 41.67
  Ukraine         16.67 22.00 38.67
  Mexico          19.33 19.00 38.33
  Switzerland     15.33 23.00 38.33
  Sweden          19.33 16.00 35.33
  USA             13.67 21.00 34.67
  Paraguay        11.67 18.00 29.67
  Ecuador         17.00 12.00 29.00
  Denmark          7.67 20.00 27.67
  Ghana           13.33 14.00 27.33
  Croatia          9.00 15.00 24.00
  Cote d'Ivoire    6.00 17.00 23.00
  Turkey          10.00 13.00 23.00
  Australia       11.33  9.00 20.33
  Poland           8.67 11.00 19.67
  South Korea     15.67  4.00 19.67
  Tunisia          8.67 10.00 18.67
  Japan           13.33  5.00 18.33
  Senegal          8.67  8.00 16.67
  Costa Rica       8.33  7.00 15.33
  Iran             5.33  6.00 11.33
  Saudi Arabia     8.00  1.00  9.00
  Trinidad & Tob.  5.33  3.00  8.33
* South Africa     3.00  2.00  5.00 

The teams that are likely to be seeded for 2010 have an asterisk (*) in front of their names 

Note that there are some slight discrepancies between scaryice's and Marcutti's tables. I guess it is because they look at a slightly different 32 teams to make the 2010 WC.

For those new to the seeding formula threads, I believe Marcutti's similar article regarding the 2006 seeds was the genesis for all subsequent seeding formula updates.

 

It's Marcuccitti, not Marcutti. He's a member on this forum: Paul Marcuccitti

 

Apologies to Paul; just trying to give credit, where credit is due.

 

Just to torture you, a new Ranking is out. Time for an update!



Almost no movement in the top 20, so things are probably exactly the same as a month ago.