(crossposted to my blog, Climbing the Ladder) The new FIFA rankings are out for September. Top 7 teams seeded (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts) Code: Total WC FIFA 1 Brazil 61.3 29.3 32 2 Italy 55.3 27.3 28 2 England 55.3 26.3 29 2 Germany 55.3 30.3 25 5 France 54.3 23.3 31 6 Argentina 51.0 21.0 30 7 Spain 48.3 25.3 23 8 Portugal 46.3 22.3 24 9 Netherlands 41.7 14.7 27 10 Ukraine 36.7 16.7 20 11 Mexico 35.3 19.3 16 12 Switzerland 34.3 15.3 19 12 Sweden 34.3 19.3 15 14 Czech 32.0 6.0 26 15 Nigeria 24.7 2.7 22 15 Denmark 24.7 7.7 17 17 Cameroon 24.0 3.0 21 18 Paraguay 23.7 11.7 12 19 Ghana 23.3 13.3 10 20 USA 21.7 13.7 8 21 Uruguay 20.7 2.7 18 22 Cote d'Ivoire 20.0 6.0 14 23 Korea 19.7 15.7 4 24 Australia 18.3 11.3 7 24 Japan 18.3 13.3 5 26 Croatia 18.0 9.0 9 27 Colombia 13.0 0.0 13 28 Costa Rica 11.3 8.3 3 28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6 30 Greece 11.0 0.0 11 31 Trinidad 7.3 5.3 2 32 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 Colombia/Ghana/Greece/Trinidad replaced Ecuador/Guatemala/Guinea/Romania. Spain have dropped and are closer to Portugal. If Mexico and Sweden were to get in the top ten they could have a shot as well. Much of the following was originally written by eldiablito, so credit to him. Also thanks to him for doing this last time for many months. Apparently he hasn't been online in a month, so I've decided to do it tonight. Plus, I'm up really late when the rankings come out (3 AM central time). FAQ Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings? Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula. What is the seeding formula used for? The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage. What is the seeding formula exactly? The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings. Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3 Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3 Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years. How is the world cup performance determined? 0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year. 8 points are awarded for the bottom 8 teams in the group stage. 9 points are awarded for the top 8 teams in the group stage who didn't advance. All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points. How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded? Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula? I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 14 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 14 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind. 14-UEFA 4.5-CONMEBOL 3.5-CONCACAF 4.5-AFC 5.0-CAF 0.5-OFC Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula? No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994. Previous Editions July 2006 August 2006
Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot 2: Czechia, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, USA Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay Special pot: Croatia Group A: South Africa, Denmark, Japan, Croatia Group B: Germany, Switzerland, Korea Republic, Paraguay Group C: England, Ukraine, Iran, Uruguay Group D: France, Netherlands, Trinidad and Tobago, Colombia Group E: Argentina, Czechia, Australia, Cote d'Ivoire Group F: Italy, Greece, USA, Ghana Group G: Spain, Portugal, Costa Rica, Nigeria Group H: Brazil, Sweden, Mexico, Cameroon
It won't change nearly enough. The modifications to the FIFA rankings have pretty much guaranteed that the usual suspects will get their seeds. There are no CONCACAF qualifiers until next year at the earliest, so CONCACAF teams will have been nudged lower and lower by the December rankings. Not that I think the US deserves a seed. But Mexico's consistent performance though 4 WCs now (better than half the teams that will get seeds next time, I think) should garner them more respect, I think. Ukraine ahead of Mexico? Insane.
they are consistant becuase they are alwasy seeded highest. Mexico will never make it past the R16 they are not good enough as a footballing nation. I would like to see them go in like a Group F or Group E at this Years World Cup.