Zero Point Zero Zero

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by HouseHead78, Oct 12, 2013.

  1. HouseHead78

    HouseHead78 Member+

    Oct 17, 2006
    Austin, TX
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For all the hand-wringing about the defense, we had 0 goals against us at home in the Hex. That's the kind of stat I can be proud of.

    In 2009, we gave up goals to Honduras, El Salvador, and 2 to CR all in the first halves of hex home games we had to fight our way back into. Those early goals would become a theme, and doom us in the 2010 World Cup.

    In 2013, we gave up no goals at home despite a pretty shady defensive personnel situation throughout the hex. I feel like a corner has been turned and the coaching staff deserve a ton of credit for it.
     
  2. iad_22201

    iad_22201 Member+

    Jan 2, 2009
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course we've also scored significantly fewer goals and we're sitting on the exact same GD (and points) as we were after 9 games 4 years ago.
     
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  3. HouseHead78

    HouseHead78 Member+

    Oct 17, 2006
    Austin, TX
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'll take the clean sheet every time. Y'all have fun with the heart attack :)
     
  4. iad_22201

    iad_22201 Member+

    Jan 2, 2009
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Eh, six of one half a dozen of the other...
     
  5. Namdynamo

    Namdynamo Member+

    Jan 1, 2005
    #5 Namdynamo, Oct 12, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2013
    You like to fall behind and claw back, I don't.
     
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  6. NMMatt

    NMMatt Member+

    Apr 5, 2006
    To me this is the biggest irony of the Bradley vs. Klinsmann eras. For all the talk of bunker Bob and the defensive "empty bucket," and all the talk of Klinsmann making the US more attacking with hand wringing over his defensive choices, we score fewer goals and concede fewer by some margin under Klinsmann for several years now.
     
  7. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    Clearly this current coach spent too much time in Italy.

    Perhaps the best defense is a good offense (or better possession, game-management or whatever).

    Or perhaps this is just a "relatively weak" Hex, in terms of offensive abilities and execution among the top Concacaf group of opponents this cycle.

    Regardless, kudos to the current squad and staff.

    (And I thought for certain this thread was going to be about the USA's chances for getting a seed for Dec's WC draw.)
     
  8. HouseHead78

    HouseHead78 Member+

    Oct 17, 2006
    Austin, TX
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yep - we are much more sound these days. Under Bradley it was 90 minutes of open field end to end breathless madness. It was fun but we would be scattered all over the place and in emergency defending way too often.

    Klinsmanns teams earn the right to go forward as a unit with possession. This creates a much more balanced situation when we lose the ball.
     
  9. Spursfan1

    Spursfan1 Member+

    Sep 7, 2010
    Atlanta
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This year we have the best goals scored per game average of all time. (and dont give me the gold cup crap we have played gold cup games before against poor sides as well as friendlys...we score a lot in friendlys which is good...)
     
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  10. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The WCQs are not the only games we play. Even if you ignore lesser opponents like scoring 6 in the friendly against Guatemala, we scored 4 each against Germany and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
    The USMNT has scored 76 goals in 41 games under Klinsmann for an average of 1.85 per game (assuming Klinsmann started with the first game after Gold Cup 2011). We've scored 0 seven times, 1 sixteen times, 2 seven times, and 3 or more eleven times. If you tell me what data Bradley started I can calculate our average under him.
     
  11. Martin Fischer

    Martin Fischer Member+

    Feb 23, 1999
    Kampala. Uganda
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No, qualifiers are not the only games played but they are the only competitive games played with full squads. They provide a basis for comparison that can have some validity unlike friendlies and B games. And that comparison is very clear -> they stylistic changes done by JK do not result in more goals. Anyone who talks about friendlies is just drinking the Koolaid.
     
  12. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    Most interesting is that the defensive record has significantly improved since the Semi Round. In the 8 matches that counted against much tougher teams in the Hex, the team allowed the same number of goals that it did in the 6 semifinal matches against much weaker opponents.

    Perhaps it's a sign, as a lot of people were suggesting, that certain backline changes needed to be made earlier.
     
  13. Spursfan1

    Spursfan1 Member+

    Sep 7, 2010
    Atlanta
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But every team in our history played friendlies and B games.

    We have never scored this many. ever.
     
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  14. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'll take the clean sheet too. We do have the ability to score goals. Witness this summer... I know the competition was not as good, but still, its not as if we're unable to score.
     
  15. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
  16. Martin Fischer

    Martin Fischer Member+

    Feb 23, 1999
    Kampala. Uganda
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, but friendlies vary in quality and effort so much that a friendly one year is not necessarily the same as a friendly in another cycle. World Cup qualifying on the other hand involves maximum effort and the level of opponents is pretty consistent over time, thus making it a much better base to compare - IMHO.

    Or to put it another way, friendlies are crap and don't mean anything.
     
  17. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    Yes, a friendly isn't. 6 or 8 or 10 of them? I'm not so sure. It strains credulity to think all 31 of the matches the US played other than the Hex games featured opponents that were lower quality and/or didn't try as hard as was the case four years ago.

    On the other hand, it's also a very limited sample size. Better than either approach would probably be what most ratings systems actually do, which is look at qualifiers and friendlies, but just weight the qualifiers more.
     
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  18. y-lee-coyote

    y-lee-coyote Member+

    Dec 4, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    This might be true in the context of a single friendly, but for it to mean dismissing the records we have set this year, one would have to draw the conclusion that the sum total of our competition this year is less than any other year we have ever had. The only other way your comment would have relevance is if we had not played a single "meaningful" game this year.

    I suppose on might also reasonably conclude you are ignoring the facts to suit the dialogue you want to pursue. Realty certainly has nothing to do with your conclusions.
     
  19. iad_22201

    iad_22201 Member+

    Jan 2, 2009
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Unfortunately that record setting goal scoring pace has shown no sign of translating to the truly meaningful A team matches we've played during JK's tenure...
     
  20. y-lee-coyote

    y-lee-coyote Member+

    Dec 4, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    Yeah cause we didn't win the hex handily. oh wait...
     
  21. iad_22201

    iad_22201 Member+

    Jan 2, 2009
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd urge you to go back and re-read what I wrote, as your post is in no way responsive to what I said...
     
  22. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dr. Howard Hamilton, who founded Soccermetrics (http://www.soccermetrics.net/), uses an exponent of 1.7 for soccer. I used the formula (Goals scored^1.7)/(Goals scored^1.7 + Goals allowed^1.7) and then multiplied each team in the Hexagonal's value by a constant to so that the sum of the predicted points and the actual points would be equal. Here are each team's predicted and actual points:

    USA: 18.4 (19)
    Costa Rica: 17.8 (15)
    Honduras: 13.0 (14)
    Mexico: 10.5 (11)
    Panama: 8.9 (8)
    Jamaica: 2.4 (4)

    Four teams are within 1 of their expectation (Honduras's expectation rounds to 13.0 but is 13.03 to the nearest hundredth so it is within 1 of 14).
     
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  23. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Should probably try and expand the study to include chances created by the other team, as it's a fairly good indicator into how well you're controlling the game, and how you're doing as a team defensively.

    You can have a clean sheet where you face 10 good chances, or you can have a clean sheet where the other team doesn't even get a shot on goal.

    They're not equal.
     
  24. MLSFan123

    MLSFan123 Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Boston Area
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It is worth noting that goal scoring is down significantly through out the hex which affects all of these stats.

    After 9 games, here are the respective goal totals from recent hex tournament

    2013: 51
    2009: 79
    2005: 74
    2001: 69

    Much of this is due to jamaica being bottom club but always playing in tight low scoring games. In previous hex's the bottom club got whalloped in a few games.
     
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  25. Martin Fischer

    Martin Fischer Member+

    Feb 23, 1999
    Kampala. Uganda
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is a reasonable argument. My opinion just differs in that I think the variation in quality of friendlies is so great that, even with the number played, they do not make for a consistent basis for comparison. But it's just an opinion.

    This I don't understand at all, other than the fact that this poster doesn't like me. I have asked this before in another context, so I don't really expect you to step up, but WHAT FACTS am I ignoring here. I am not pursuing any dialogue, just responding to comments that I disagree with.

    Qualifying handily is nothing new. This may not be a response to anything you posted, but in my view, it is important to note that, other than the outstanding record in friendlies and winning a tournament with the B side, this is nothing new.
     

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