We've seen comments in several forums about who will/should be considered for the WNT next year, who will be invited to camp, etc. Seems like a good time to start a forum on this topic. As a diehard UNC fan, I naturally am most interested in which of the UNC players will be invited to the camp. I think Heather O'Reilly is a given for a forward slot (along with Abby). The most interesting area of speculation for me is the midfield. Assuming she is fit following her broken leg, Tarpley should be getting a good look as center attacking midfield. She seemed to be beating out Wagner regularly at the end. I also think Wagner is way overrated for this position. (Has she been a "political" appointment -- a sop to Jerry Smith?) Chalupny is having a great year in the midfield for UNC. She is currently playing center attacking with Tarpley out. I think her natural position with the Nats is going to be on the left. So, I'm seeing her as the successor to Lily and as backup for Tarpley at the center slot. A good prospect for the right middie and a replacement for Foudy is Kacey White. She is emerging as one of the really strong players in the country at that position, playing it with a lot of confidence and skill. She's always in position for a pass or changing of the point of the attack, good at bringing the ball down the flank, she's a scorer as well as excellent passer, and she can go 1v1 with almost anyone. I'm not sure people could stand three UNC players in the midfield, but these three are very strong prospects who could well earn those spots on their merits. A defensive center middie that could be worth a look is India Trotter from FSU. As lots of people have noted, we don't have a backup for Boxx (who I assume has a lock on that postion). India is fast, strong, and playing with increasing skill. What do others think, especially about potential newcomers for the back line?
it doesn't matter how many players come originaly from one college (Club) if they're truly good players and deserved to be on the nat team, i remember reading the story about Dutch nat team in the past which the majority of it's players came from the Ajax Amsterdam....so we shouldn't be guilty about it.
How about Notre Dame? They have a couple of kids who are on the under 19 and under 21 National Team. I know they have a few Canadian players on their team, but there are also some solid young Americans on that team. I hope the cards are right for a Notre Dame-UNC showdown in the final four.
I think the pool in '05 will be a little older than some of you think. I can't see O'Reilly, Chalupny, and Tarpley on the team. Perhaps two, not three. You might see some of the already-married gold medalists taking the year off to start a family with an aim to come back for China '07. Heinrichs might get some great camps from hungry WUSA veterans who are itching to play -- Christie Welsh, Thori Bryan, the Tietjens, Jamie Pagliarulo, Jen Grubb. We'll see.
Welsh looks sluggish next to O'Reilly but every time I saw Jenn Grubb I was impressed! Prospects are great for the future of the NATS. I just wish that the coaching job would change hands every 8 years like the presidency must!
I've always been impressed with Grubb, but I just can't see SocFed getting her back in the fold, unless they get a coach from WAAYYY outside. Also, it's hard to imagine the nats NOT having Tarps, O'Reilly, and Chalupny in the line up unless they're hurt. Certainly Chalupny would've been a HUGE improvement over a couple of mids who shall remain nameless despite their stench in the Olympics.
To what extent do people think politics do or should play in naming people to the Nats camps and squad? One would think that invitation and selection should be based purely on talent. But I'm not so sure. In an earlier post, I suggested that Tarpley, O'Reilly, and Chalupny should be invited to camp and would seem to have pretty solid shots at making the next version of the team. I also mentioned Kacey White as a possible replacement for Foudy at the right middie spot. That would be 4 UNC players. Is tht too many, regardless of their talent? I didn't mention, but could have, Jessica Maxwell and Kendal Fletcher as possible backs. Jess is developing very fast, has played on the U-19s, and could compete for the Faucett spot. Kendal Fletcher is having an outstanding year at right fullback. That has been a weakness on the Nats and she seems like someone the powers that be should look at, too. (What would we argue about, though, if we couldn't do so over Bivens, vs. Pierce, vs. Mitts, etc.) That could total up to 6 UNC players in camp. An impossible number, regardless . . . ? On the other hand, there's Aly Wagner. Would you invite her to the camp this winter, based on how she played last year? But what would it take not to?
From a political perspective, the safe approach would be to 'tweak' the current team by slowly introducing new talent - in other words keep doing what AH has been doing for the past 4 years. The USWNT would win most of its friendlies in the interim and still be one of the contenders for the next WWC. The riskier approach would be to rebuild the team from the ground up with young talented players who may not currently have any senior int'l experience. Only the best young veterans would carry over from the 2004 team. Carry overs would include Boxx, Wambach, Reddick, Rampone, O'Reilly, Tarpley. Retirees would include the likes of Lilly, Chastain, Fawcett, Parlow, Scurry, Markgraf, Hamm and Foudy (Hamm and Foudy have already announced their retirement). Older players like Millie, Mac, TR etc. who didn't play in Athens would not be invited to camp. Teenagers and players in their early 20's would fill out the roster. The team would not be the strongest the US 'could' field in 2005 or possibly 2006 and it would likely lose more friendlies than fans would like. But by 2007 the USWNT would have the talent, the youth and the experience to dominate the WWC (assuming the team was selected and developed by someone who knew their stuff).
You would have serious leadership issues in a back line without Fawcett, Chastain & Markgraf. Also think that Lilly has some good years left if she desires to play. Scurry is still on top of her game.
The harsh reality is that by 2007, Fawcett, Chastain, Markgraf, Lilly and Scurry will be older but not better. Investing further in those players will be at the expense of investing in younger players with much bigger upsides. Sure the back line would suffer a loss of leadership in the short run but you can't have your cake and eat it too. It's a matter of short term pain for long term gain. Brazil is a good example. Marta and most of her teammates were teenage unknowns in 2001. They went from nothing to almost Olympic gold in 3 years. The scary thing is that many of them still play for Brazil's U19 team. Who do you think is going to be better in 2007 - Brazil's teenage stars or Fawcett, Chastain, Lilly, Markgraf, Scurry etc? The answer's pretty obvious. The USA has that kind of young 'unknown' talent too. Players like Kerri Hanks, Angie Woznuk, Ashlyn Harris, Stacy Lindstrom and Stephanie Logterman are all very good right now. How good could they be after 3 years of senior international experience? Brazil has already answered that question.
If you can tell which young kids will mature into nat stars you definitely should go work for the federation - Wags, Pukes, Susan Bush, Tif Roberts and a hundred other U19/U21 stars were "can't miss" kids. Maybe you're just more prescient (but I doubt it). This list of "old folks" is a great example, Chastain is ready to retire. Fawcett and Lilly are question marks - if they stay healthy could they become the team's heart and soul rallying point (like Akers in '99)? (I'm guessing Lilly more likely than Fawcett, but who knows) Markgraf will be what, 31? Prime age for a defender and she will have gone from athletic young kid to experienced and tactically astute vet (assuming there is some coaching somewhere). Scurry will be in her prime as a goalkeeper, about the same age as Keller and Friedel. World Championship teams evolve - they don't "rebuild" by destroying things. Young guns like O'Reily and Tarpley, Chalupny and Osbourne are climbing through the ranks and there will be more, but there's plenty of time and plenty of players in their prime in the player pool already, too. If we model ourselves on the Brazilian women's team - we'll be breaking up teams that have the talent to win (as they did prior to '03) and sending teams that are too inexperienced to finish the job (Oly's?) despite having great talent. (could Sissi have provided a finishing edge to that team?) And no U19 team is going to send a huge group of players to a senior team and win at that level. Fire Ape.
And how easy for the billionare Malcom guy who tries to buy ManU to support WUSA financially so that we'll all be happy
Fawcett is retiring. Markgraf is a good bit younger than the older vets and is one of the best defenders in the world. Always a bit underated IMHO. I think bring in some talented youth but don't throw the baby out with the bath water. Let the youngens learn at the feet of Chastain, Lilly and Scurry. How much do you think Abby has benefited from playing along side Mia? Would her game be where it is without that experience? I don't think so.
These next few years will be an exciting time for the USWNT for sure. Never before in the teams history will there be such a turnover in the player pool. As evidenced by the '02 U-19 championships, the young wave of USA players can compete and hold their own quite well against the world powers, and perhaps most of all, the superb Brazilian team. I have a feeling they will be the team to beat come WWC '07. As good as they were at the Oly's, the majority of the team will be in their prime during the next major tourney cycle. The time is now to rebuild the team. With no major tournaments in sight for almost three years, Ape (or preferably someone new) has a golden opportunity to give the younger players who never had a chance come show their stuff. There will be an adjusting period, no doubt, and the next year could be a challenging one, but it will pay off in the end, IMO. The goalkeeping position is pretty stacked. Who knows how long Brianna will play? If nothing else, she's a great mentor for the younger pool of players, and as we saw in the Olympics, she's still very capable herself. Watch for Mullinix, Luckenbill, Beene, Solo, and Harris to all compete for the starting spot in WC '07. Defensively, I look forward to see how Rampone, Kate, and Reddick all grow as a unit together; similar to how Joy, Carla, and Brandi did over the years. They are al virtual locks for at least the next 4 years. The question mark remains the 4th defender slot (unless the team goes to a 3-5-2). Danielle Slaton if she ever gets healthy is a great option for left back. Bivens and Mitts haven't been consistant enough, IMO, for long term consideration. As someone pointed out earlier, some good young options are available such as LePeilbet, Maxwell, and Fletcher, and given a few years of experience they have a legitimate chance. Midfield is the least of worries, as we have the most depth of any position. Boxx, Tarpley, and Wagner (if she ever picks her game up) will likely be around for '07, and we have a wave of new talent emerging. Osborne, Chalupny, Lohman, Lindstrom, and others are waiting for their chance to shine, and I think it'll be soon. I agree that the team needs a balence of youth AND experience to be successful, so a complete overhaul wouldn't be a good move. Players like Lil and TR need to stick around to give that veteren composure. If Aleisha Cramer (or Rose, whatever) ever returns, she would be a welcome addition as well. Up front, the Wombat and O'Reilly (the next #9) are the most obvious choices for years to come. The rest of the forwards aren't as set in stone, but seeing as quite a few of the middies have offensive talent, add the slew of U-19 forwards in there (Wilson, Woznuk, Hanks, Kai) and perhaps vets like CP, Welsh, and Mac, and I think were reasonably set. For years, the younger generations have been over-shadowed by the 91'ers, and will now be given their chance. I can't wait for the upcoming year....it should be an exciting one.
You don't have to be prescient to select young talent. The names I suggested are some good U19 candidates (in my opinion) but it's the coaching staff's job to get it right. Not getting on with the job because you aren't prescient or might make a mistake is lame. I'm suggesting some big changes in USWNT personnel but certainly not replacing the entire team. There is a solid core that should be carried forward to 2007. Should Markgraf and Scurry be included in that core? I'm not convinced they should but I'd agree there is a much stronger case for them than Chastain, Lilly and Fawcett. IF Fawcett and Lilly remain healthy for the next three years they'll be a) lucky b) 3 years further past their primes. With the rest of the world improving faster than the US I wouldn't put my eggs in that basket. Call it what you like, evolve or rebuild or whatever the label doesn't matter. Brazil did a great job turning young unknown talent into an Olympic contender. It wasn't like they were in over their heads against the US or had the talent but not the experience to win. Two shots hit the post dead on. If either was a couple of inches over, Brazil would have taken the Gold, the US would have taken the Silver 'again' and no one would be questioning Brazil's lack of experience. And it's not like Brazil is unique in its thinking. Canada and Mexico are clearly taking the same approach to rapid improvement. Sure the USWNT is better than both those teams, but the gap is much smaller than 3 years ago and still closing. China has gone on record saying their biggest mistake was hanging on to old players too long and failing to develop their youth. I think that's the message. Why fire Ape? My guess is she'd do exactly what you suggest. She'd hang on to players past their prime and slowly tweak around the edges.
Fawcett is not a factor. She is retiring after last FCT game and in fact has probably already played her last game since she is injured.
My point is that only a small percentage of the kids you're talking about will EVER help the national team (and they are just the latest group of "can't miss kids"). It's not a good idea to take change a tire if you don't have a spare ready. This is based on the fact that they sucked before they went with a youth movement. They weren't replacing anyone. It's easy to throw out the vets who suck. You're talking about multiple world champs. Yes it's a competitive universe and everyone is gunning for us. So? China's problem was replacing an outstanding coach with a crappy one and the effect was instantaneous. Ape needs firing because she won't/can't integrate new players into the team in an organized way that makes the team stronger. She's shown she only has two strategies - dumping role players for reserves who are basically just like the people they are backing up OR picking up promising players and keeping them glued to the end of the bench. Let's get her out while we're still on top!
Morris20 - in your opinion what should the USWNT do in 2005 - 2007 to be ready to take on Brazil etc. in the WWC? Who should stay, who should go, who should return to the team (Mac, Millie etc.), who should be added (new) and who should replace April? Any thoughts?
The #1 thing the WNT needs to do between 05 & 07 is make sure WUSA or some successor exists to provide a pro environment for these people. It's obviously cheaper to subsidize a league than pay 40 "pool players" to come to camp, etc. But that's not IMHO going to happen (too obviously smart for SocFed to do it). The #2 thing is get a real coach - the biggest changes in national teams are brought by coaches. Mexico and Canada upgraded and became competitive. China downgraded, Brazil brought in Rene Simoes and voila they're contenders. There are so many legitimate candidates for this job that it's almost an insult to make a list - you'll leave people off. Tracy Bates Leone certainly would be high on the list, but there are MANY others. So now you get to players and you're down to #3 already. First of all, any list is futile because players are going to be healthy/injured/pregnant/whatever and there's no way to predict it. But . . . here are a few predictions (based on no inside info, so . . .) Scurry is the goalkeeper unless she loses the job. Mullinix is the #2 with a whole bunch of keepers further back and it would be strange for a college age keeper to step into their ranks. Jen Branam is probably the best outside bet at this position and she could get a fresh look in a post-Ape world. Defensively, Markgraf is going to be the anchor but I can't really see who's going to be back with her. Leslie Osbourne would be someone I'd pencil in. Jen Grubb could be part of the answer, but not with the current style of play. FWIW, this will always be the weak link of the US team - our best athletes play offense. In the midfield, Lilly could be a touchstone kind of player if she stays healthy, etc. (all a BIG if). Tarpley and Chalupny seem set to anchor things and there are way too many options for decent wide players here. Can Boxx continue to develop w/o a league? Up front, O'Reilly and Wombat are great but frankly I hope Mia gets unretired - she'd be great with them even in '07. I don't know enough about the current U19's to have an opinion on them - but I'd be thrilled if 1 or 2 of them rise to the NT roster in the next three years. Also, I wouldn't get too worked up about Brazil or any other single opponent. It will depend on who the coaches are, whether key people are healthy, etc. All you can do is be as strong as possible (and remember we're in the lead at the moment), with the deepest possible pool and the best schedule for preparation.
Good stuff Morris20. I agree with many of your points but I think I'd take a more aggressive stance in terms of using the next 3 years to re-build. I suspect many BS posters haven't seen enough of the U21's and U19's to get jazzed up about injecting more youth into the senior squad. I was able to watch the U19's play in the CONCACAF final against a tough Canadian side and the players I listed (with maybe the exception of Harris) looked like the real deal to me. Hanks (f)- killer instinct around the net (top tournament scorer) Woznuk (m) - field general, very, very talented, very composed Lindstrom (d) - 6 foot central defender, major force air and ground Logterman (m) - didn't see her lose a 1-v-1 or fail to connect on a single pass Harris (g) - good, but I'd like to see how good
Thanks CAFAN, I hope these players get the opportunity to keep "showing." I certainly expect they'll be in camp with the nats so they get a look - assuming we're going to have camps since we're only playing a couple of games next year.
My sense from an article I read this summer and an interview on tv is that Bri retires to go into real estate next year. Your goalie will be Kristin Luckenbill and Hope Solo will vie for playing time along with the girl from Stanford whose name i don't know.