There is of course no way to quantify that either. "If you want to be TA, then you already are" is a mantra you've thrown out for years, which has no real meaning. Now that 107ist is off the ground (for what, all of 1 year now?) you have your first way to actually measure enthusiasm without resorting to Dr Feelgood. So really you only have a 1 year metric to work with. However, just as in every other club in the world, the fan base is *more* than your SG. You in particular, Dave, have already been called out for being less than accommodating of non-TA Timbers fans, or at least fans that may call themselves "TA" without accepting the TA dogma as preached by 107ist. But they exist in significant numbers, regardless, and are probably not as gung-ho as the 107ist leadership you surround yourself with. I think you've done a good job there, but also think you guys are as blindly dogmatic about your narrative, as you accuse others of being ignorant of it.
No meaning to you, which is both not surprising and irrelevant. Then again, why shouldn't another of the Class of 2009 Superfans do everything he can to turn a topic on what we're doing right in the NW to another Portland-Seattle pissing contest? Not interested. Jog on.
2009 Superfan vs Cult of TA Grand Inquisitor? Only you seem to subscribe to the world view of "If you aren't with me, you are against Sunflowers, the Timbers, and the American Way". I think what you are doing for fan culture is great. It is your internet arrogance I think we all could do without.
Hmm.. Poorly chosen wording on my part. I'm not going to deny that their numbers have increased over the 2 month losing spree, but rather that it is evidence Portland fans are immune to a protracted levels of suck.
*laugh* And you don't think that is the result of the Timbers now being in Major League Soccer vs. USL? The jump from a D2 team to a MLS team is directly responsible for the increased sponsorship, media saturation, etc, etc that you are pointing to as somehow proving that Portland fans are different. It happens in every single expansion city. It happened in Seattle, it happened in Vancouver, and it will happen again in Montreal when they make the jump. There is zero difference between what is happening now down in Portland than what is happening in Seattle and Vancouver. However, I think you're misunderstanding my point. It is apparent that there is a larger group of "hard core" fans in Portland and that is certainly going to sustain Portland's attendance numbers through a period of suck longer than an equivalent period in other cities, but using a period of suck as short as two months in an expansion season as evidence that Portland fans are somehow different is just asinine. You guys are riding a wave of excitement right now because you're an expansion franchise, ignoring that fact is only going to cause problems for you later on when that wave dies down.
It seems that Toronto has been unfairly pulled into this argument. After 4.5 years of utter futility, their average attendance has dropped by what, 400. If you are going to use that as an example to compare what might happen when Portland sucks for the next 4 years, than the argument seems pretty weak. In fact, it shows me how loyal the TFC fans have been. Not only are they supporting a bad team, they are also getting a price squeeze from their owners.
The size of Toronto's stadium is probably a significant factor in why the dropoff is only 400. Because of their "small" stadium size compared to interest in their early years we don't have a way to accurately measure what sort of drop in interest that they have had as a whole. As an example, let's say you've got two teams with 35,000 people willing to attend games on any given day. One team plays in a stadium a capacity of 20,000 and another plays in a stadium a capacity of 35,000. 5 years have gone buy, both teams have sucked and now both have 20,000 people willing to attend games on any given day. The team with a 20,000 seat stadium is still selling out every game but the team that has the 35,000 seat stadium is only filling 60% of their stadium on game day. Despite equal drops in fans willing to attend a game on any given day, which team do you think people are pointing at and calling bandwagon fans?
I think TFC has been hit harder than is immediately apparent from their attendance numbers. They used to have the longest STH waiting list in the league, and that list is gone now. This is comparable to Portland because the timbers probably now have the longest waiting list in the league, and would have to piss off their fan base a similar if not greater amount than TFC before you would even notice it at the turnstile. Seattle on the other hand would show an immediate effect of fan dissatisfaction, because I don't think we even have a waiting list... At least not one year-over-year. I added myself to the STH waiting list in Seattle's MLS year One, and had no problem getting tickets for the next year. I have other friends that added themselves in year Two, and they also got in with no problem this year. If/when our STH demand ever drops it will be immediately apparent. In TFC it took 5 years (although in actuality the shit storm really only just happened). In that respect, Portland will be more like Toronto. Edit: What Yoshou said.
Except we are not talking about people that kinda, woulda, someday might pay money and go, if only their mother would let them. We are talking about the folks who actually stand in the rain despite the drizzle on and off the pitch. I understand that their waiting list has dropped off the radar, but it is a bit of a nebulous number when compared to actual attendance (do they still do a turnstile?). But more to the point of this discussion, and though I have no way of proving this, I sense that the slight drop in numbers has just as much to do with the rapid hike in ticket prices as it does with the teams performance. As far as Portland is concerned, the point-counter point nature of this discussion really seems to be an exercise of argumentation for its own purpose. It is funny when folks argue about predictions of future human behavior. Some get it right, and some don't. Usually having knowledge of the local nuances helps. The ones who really end up looking like fools, are those who just bunch a set of numbers into a statistical model, but their numbers somehow miss the mark. And if one thinks I'm off my rocker on this, I suggest going back and reading the discussions on the Sounders expansion here in BS. I never knew there were so many experts on Seattle, that did not actually live here, until I read through that goldmine.
That's not necessarily an indicator that Seattle doesn't still have a season ticket waiting list. I was reading an interesting article or thread recently about season ticket holders in sports, generally speaking most franchises lose a decent chunk of season ticket holders (with exceptions like the Green Bay Packers), maybe 5 or 10% in a given year? Most franchises will open up newly available season tickets to their existing ticket holders, after the current season ticket holders are satisfied then folks on the waiting list get a crack. It's meant to be a thank you for your loyalty.
There IS something different going on in Portland right now. That's clear from watching the games. To ignore that is to ignore the obvious. None of us know whether it will last, but it IS different from what we've seen in other expansion cities. Given the point about the Portland Trailblazers, perhaps there is something different about fan support in Portland. That remains to be seen of course, but I suppose in all of this it matters what kind of dry spell we're talking about. If we are talking about 20 years without the playoffs that's one thing. If we are talking making the playoffs every third year that might be another thing. Also, perhaps Montreal will be better, but we've yet to see anything about how that franchise will be run as an MLS team and how much the fans will support it. Let's chat about that in a year or two. Its not particularly relevant to this discussion I don't think. Even if we grant you that Montreal will be better, that doesn't make Portland any less different from expansion teams in the past.