Who might surprise in the EPL?

Have any of you got thoughts on who might be a surprise team breaking into the top six in the upcoming season?

With all of the turmoil at Leeds and Chelsea (not to mention their reliance on aging players such as Petit, Zola and Desailly), I would think that there are some UEFA Cup spots that are very much up for grabs.

Even Newcastle could be a little vulnerable if they start off poorly and/or hit a bad patch, due to their lackluster defense. This could especially be an issue if they run into fixture congestion (i.e. Cup run, Champion’s League, etc) and/or injury troubles (odds on Dyer playing 25 league games - anyone)?

Contenders to Move Up: (in no particular order)

Middlesborough - Played very well at the close of the past season and showed that they can beat/play with top teams. Steve McLaren has proven that he is a decent manager. His defensive tactics were already proven and the players seemed to respond pretty well.

Why they might be better? They have added some great offensive players in the close season: Junhino seems like a certainty now and he should fit in quickly. Maccerone is a fabulously gifted striker whose style should be a good fit for the EPL. Gerami showed plenty of skill for Cameroon and should be a good addition to the midfield.

They may struggle less with injuries to key players that hindered (esp their offense) last season. Boksic should really benefit playing with the new additions, rather than players who are not at his level. He also has a bit to prove after a disappointing World Cup - maybe one last great season.

The defensive backline is as strong as any in the league and Southgate and Ehuigo have formed a solid partnership. They won’t have to go through the breaking-in period that they did at the (rough) beginning of last season.

What they should look out for? Engine Room - the loss of their inspirational skipper Ince and Muscoe (? I think this is right) leaves them thin in the defensive midfield. Is Greening going to step up as an all around midfield player, or will he struggle to get in the side now that Junhino is here? What about Marinelli?

Offense - will the additions jell quickly and result in goals? They have to score to win. Draws won’t cut it - especially against mid-table/lower-table sides.

West Ham - Another team that played very well at times in the past season, after a rough go early on. They played very well at home (until Man U anyway). After taking a lot of stick, Glenn Roeder has proven he can motivate a team and manage some pretty difficult players (i.e. he won the battle with Di Canio). He also has great touch in bringing along his fabulous youngsters.

Why they might be better? Maturing Young Talent - They have so many young players who are ready to break-through. Playing in and training for the World Cup may have given Joe Cole the push he needs to start asserting himself on a consistant basis. Michael Carrick might also be ready for top billing. Scott Garcia is coming along. Roeder has gained the upper hand over Di Canio and will play Defoe frequently enough to spur his development.

Defensive Consistancy - Roeder may not have had the confidence of the team at the beginning of the season, but they seem to work hard for him now. Without true star names, the defense really improved over the course of the season, to the point that they were a very efficient unit (esp. at home) after some early debacles (Blackburn and Chelsea).

Offensive Consistancy - After an injury-plagued season and a bit of a snub by Liverpool, Kanoute will want to reestablish his value. Di Canio might play harder out of pride, or he might completely disappear. If he has half the class of Gianfranco Zola, he could be a great asset as an impact sub late in games. Hopefully he will give up his PK duties to Joe Cole or someone else, as they cost WH. Jermaine Defoe is waiting to break out in a big way. Trevor Sinclair may ride his World Cup success to a great season - now he has confidence as well as form.

What they should look out for? Depth - West Ham doesn’t have much. Injury troubles could cripple their team - especially on the back line.

Inconsistancy - always a factor when you rely on young players as much as West Ham does. At least the core of the defense Schemmel, Dailly and Repka (crazy challenges notwithstanding) are reliable.

Tottenham - Ahh the perennial underachievers. Which team is going to show up?

Why they might be better? Tons of Talent up Front - They have no excuse for not playing better. While they are aging up front, Sheringham and Ferdinand should have at least one more season in the tank. Steffen Iverson is a classy player. Jamie Redknapp is going to want to prove his quality and Gus Poyet (another old guy) always comes through. Only Poyet and Anderton are likely to have drop off from last year’s excellent campaigns. Having Christian Ziege for an entire season would be a huge help. If they pick up Robbie Keane, watch out. He would be a great pairing with either the clever Sheringham or the powerful Ferdinand.

What they should look out for? Too Fancy - Hoddle is stubborn and his tactics tend towards the unconventional. While this sometimes keeps his opponents on their toes, sometimes I think it puts too much pressure on his players to play in roles they don't understand or are not especially suited for. It also leads to lopsided outings (think Chelsea) that can devestate the confidence of young players - such as the critical Ledley King.

High Risk Defense - Wing-backs Taricco, Ziege and Ledley King can induce lots scary moments with their decision-making and aggressive play. Dean Richards is a steady influence and hopefully King can build on the strong first half he had last year and forget about the shaky second half.

What do you all think? What about Blackburn or Aston Villa? I believe they will disappoint. Possible longshots for a better than mid-table finish? Sunderland and Man City

 

No doubt when Newcastle is firing on all their cylinders, they are a strong side. That is why I only mentioned them after Chelsea and Leeds - after all if Chelsea and Leeds were teams that represented the sum of their player's abilities - I think that they would be at least as strong as Newcastle. But the whole just doesn't equal the sum of the parts.

Also, Newcastle has added Bramble, who promises to be a great player for England in a year or two - if you believe the press he might be fighting with Woodgate or King for a spot beside Rio when/if Sol starts to decline.

But Jenas is still pretty young to play in the EPL every game (might be too demanding physically as he is still pretty light, right?) and let's face it: Dyer, Bellamy and Bramble are frequently injured. Plus, Shearer is no spring chicken and is not nearly as effective without excellent players around him. I believe if you look at the games when Bellamy was playing beside him and the games when he was not, there is a substantial difference in his goals per game.

I was mainly just trying to stir some interest as to who is most likely to be the new "Liverpool of '00-'01" or the new "Newcastle of '01-'02" in the upcoming season.

Finally, the balance of the league seems to be favoring teams that place a priority on defense. This was certainly true among the places 1 - 3 (Liverpool and Arsenal were better defensively than Man U), particularly at home). It will be interesting to see if eams like Leeds (due to loss of key defensive personnel), Man City (by virtue of KK), Tottenham, Blackburn and Newcastle can be more successful by making it their priority to outscore their opponents rather than grind out matches by preventing them from scoring.