I sincerely don't know how anyone could even make an argument for England being a powerhouse. It isn't subjective, there is no data that could even support it.
True, same level as Portugal. Anyway, doesn't matter wrt the World Cup in 2022. There are obvious traditional powerhouses that have less chance to win next year than NTs that have won very little throughout history. England over Uruguay (for instance). And I am not one to overrate England, but I would also put them over Argentina and Spain right now too (slightly) (although not convinced Spain is a powerhouse either).
That would be a nice insult if I said Portugal was a powerhouse. If you ever need to talk to someone about the Portuguese person or perhaps group of bullies that hurt you, you can send me a message and we can talk about it. Hang in there bud.
Statistically speaking Germany is due a semi-finals run in Qatar. In the post-war period, Germany have never failed to reach the semi-finals in three consecutive major tournaments. (counting only World Cups and EUROs - no Olympic tournaments) Germany is a team I could imagine under the last four or if everything clicks in the final. That's it though. Winning it all is a bridge too far. They are expected to peak two years later when they host the EUROs.
Many of the advantages of being a so-called 'powerhouse' have diminished over the years. In any case, while I agree England can't be considered a powerhouse when you look at their trophy case (and even though I don't see them being good enough to deserve a World Cup trophy to go with the one they won at home in 1966), there is a good chance they will outperform some (or even most) of the sides which might be rated as powerhouses (Brazil, Germany, Italy, France, Argentina, and Spain). As for who will be favored to lift the trophy, it is in reality too early to tell with any confidence. But there are 2 sides that seems to be coming back (after some overdo changes) to stake a claim to be in contention. One of them has been mentioned, namely Germany. The other one is Holland.
I think Germany and the Netherlands will make a strong come back in the next years after they went through a couple of bad years. I'm confident that one of them will be in the semi-finals in Qatar. If you look back at how previous World Cup semi-finals shaped up there is often an European powerhouse that was coming off the back of an dissappointing EURO campaign prior to the World Cup. Case in point the Netherlands in 98, 10, 14 Germany in 02, 06 Italy in 06, England and Belgium in 18 Let's see if this keeps up.
Regarding Portugal I have to say that I don't expect them anywhere near the semi-finals again as long as they stick to Santos. It seems to me that there must be a lack of ambition in the Portugese FA. They still live off their EURO 2016 title completely ignoring that the team exited early in the two tournaments after. My message to the Portugese FA: If you always do the same, don't expect different results. After the loss to Belgium you should have moved on from Santos to be honest.
Well, with what we used player wise up till now I would say max semi final. With the new attacking talents maybe brought in, a surprise could be possible. It depends on the chances given to them.
That sounds fair. But as has been said it all depends on the draw and brackets and so many other factors between now and November 2022. Maybe the Final can happen. Or at least you have better possibilities than most teams.
For the Netherlands it's pretty much the same as for Germany. Semi-finals is doable. Final if everything clicks. I think you guys could be a major threat in 2024. You have good young players coming through and the EUROs will take place in Germany, the place where you won your only trophee.
Another thread that is worth to be opened soon maybe after the draw occurred is is who will be the dark horses for the tournament. Who has the potential to go on a deep run amongst the less fancied sides. In 2018 Croatia and Colombia were my choices and we all know how that turned out...
It's kind of weird that a small batch of countries are perenial contenders to go deep in the WC. You get sometimes a country that makes a surprise rise in a tournement to the SF or even to the Final, but that's it. It never lasts. Especially us Dutch doing it decades on end, given our population size (compare it to the population size of the other perenials or even to population sizes of countries that hardly ever make an impression) that's pretty small. There must be some explanation for it, but for a global sport it's kind of baffling you have the same "culpritts" every 4 years.
Last time there was a World Cup in Asia though we had Korea and Turkey make it to the Semis. It would be fun to see something strange like that happen again. (I know some people here don't think it can happen and that tournament was rigged but I have a feeling this tournament can bring surprises too.)
One World Cup is a small sample. I don't see what kind of "magic" Asia could have. The fact that it's sandwiched in the midst of the season means that players of the top nations won't arrive physically drained to the World Cup as it's usually the case. I try to keep an eye on all confederations. As of now I don't see any team not named Brazil or Argentina (excluding also UEFA that is) being contenders for a semi-finals run. If there's a surprise I would look maybe after some 2nd tier European teams. Current quality of play outside of Europe doesn't suggest otherwise. You know my opinion on South Korea. Rigged. Asia is yet to have a team in the semi-finals. In my book. Turkey was good. But then again who did they eliminate in order to go this far? Costa Rica and a piss poor China in the group stage, hosts Japan, Senegal and again another host with South Korea edging them out for bronze. Not the most impressive of runs. But they hold their own twice against Brazil. That inself is probably more impressive than the other results they obtained all together.
Football is so popular because it seems so uncomplicated. But it's actually very difficult to be very good at it. Most countries don't meet the socio-economic requirements for becoming powerful in the sport. Then it needs so much planing if you aim to be very successfull more than only a handful of years. I'm not surprised to see only nine countries having won the World Cup.
You can extend that to the number of countries that ever made it to the semi finals more than 4 times.
IT is a World Cup in a place we have never seen a World Cup before during a winter season we have never played it before.. The Middle East will have some surprises based on my gut. And in little more than a year's time I think we will all be surprised who makes a run. Just has that feel to it.
Ok. Let's see. I just want to add that in modern times I think where the World Cup takes place doesn't play as major of a role than a couple of decades ago. Spain and Germany won it in unfamiliar conditions. Especially Germany winning it as the first European team on South American soil proves that the outside conditions are less and less influential if you just happen to be a very good team. Personally I believe that sometimes certain countries could present sort of an happy omen for some teams. In first place it's about how good you are prepared and how you do as a team. And that's where most teams are lacking. I hedge my bets on four powerhouses in the semi-finals. For now. I don't see a fairy tale run on the horizon. The best runs will probably end in the quarterfinals.
November will prove whether Spain can be serious contenders for glory in Qatar or not. They are under pressure and need probably wins over Greece away and Sweden at home in order to qualfy directly. I don't believe they'll get them though. But if.... If Spain manages to win both matches with a convincing display (not by luck that is) they will enter my list of top three favourites to win it all. In case they'll go through the playoffs I don't think they are ready for big things yet.
It's looking pretty wide open at the moment, with Brazil & Argentina dominating CONCACAF qualifying and all the major European sides looking vulnerable. Could be another tournament with a surprise semifinalist again, like in 94, 98, 02, 10 and 18.