2022 being in the Winter can make it even more unpredictable in my opinion. Not less in my eyes. Especially since it will be an awkward first time sorta thing for everyone involved.
The best European teams right now are France (A-) and Italy (A-), followed by almost half dozen sides that I would put in the B+ category (Spain, Portugal, Belgium, England, Germany). Then you have Denmark (B/B+) and Switzerland (B/B+) that are close enough the B+ category teams with Croatia (B) and Holland (B) just a notch below. To win the World Cup, a side will need to rate at a B+ in my ratings, although in 2018 Croatia made it even to the final without ever rating above a solid B in my grade book. Among those UEFA sides who rate the highest in my book right now, you will need France to break a jinx they started in some ways in 2002, in order to even advance from their WC group much less repeat their title. (Every European WC champ since 2002 has done miserably in the subsequent WC, failing to even advance from its group, i.e. France 2002, Italy 2010, Spain 2014, and Germany 2018). Italy, on the other hand. looks both meritorious and exciting and has quite a few reasons to be hopeful. Outside of UEFA, the only side that rates a B+ or better is Brazil. You then have a handful of (B/B+) sides, led by Argentina, who nonetheless fall outside the cut when it comes teams which can be rated among the top title contenders. p.s. The sides I have in bold are the top contenders to win the WC and among them I give Brazil, then Italy, the best chance to accomplish this feat.
If Messi and Ronaldo will enter the World Cup despite both having their best days behind them I'm willing to discard Argentina and Portugal right away. They are both a burden for their national team's collective play. In order for Brazil's chances to improve they need Neymar in top form. They need a Neymar who can lead them. If Neymar lifts the CL trophy with PSG that would boost him and inspire him with some winning mentality. Without Neymar in top shape Brazil won't stand much of a chance against some of the other European powerhouses.
Interesting. I do not see Argentina playing better without Messi though. Not at this stage in the cycle. On the other hand Portugal I can see doing better without Ronaldo.
What exactly would Covid have to do with that ? It's not like we haven't seen these kind of surprises pre Covid. Sorry not buying the Covid excuse at all. World Football has always been full of surprises and the top and medium level teams have little separating them. Whoever is best ON THE DAY will win, and that's why we are seeing so many surprises with Euro. Qatar will be a WC like no other, bet on that.
While I won't discount some influence from Covid-19 on football around much of the world, the part of your message I have highlighted is the part I agree with the most.
COVID? Because of the highly condensed season for top players (playing the same # of games even though the season didn't begin until late September). You question the COVID-19 effect but expect a major Qatar effect? Seems contradictory. Qatar is just another WC host. Nothing special/different about it. Will be nice, comfortable weather. Minimal travel involved. Don't see how its a major factor.
European teams did better in 2018 than in 2010 and 2014. I guess we will find out in Qatar if this was just some sort of vague "home continent advantage" boost, or if this is permanent. Regarding the winner, the only team that possibly could end the UEFA streak imo is Brazil. But they will need Neymar for once to be fully fit and in top form in order to have any kind of chance. Although it's technically "Asia", I don't see Qatar hosting giving much of a boost to AFC teams other than the hosts and maybe Iran or Saudi Arabia. Maybe some of the North African nations if they qualify could also benefit. The bar is very low for non-UEFA/CONMEBOL teams after 2018, so it wouldn't take much for it to be considered an "improvement".
England they did make it to the semi final of Russia 2018 and another semi final for EURO 2020...but can they go one step further by winning the World Cup in 2022 in Qatar? I wouldn't rule it out but England have not won a major trophy since 1966 when they won the World Cup.
England has the talent to make it. They seem to be developing the mentality too. If I had to say one thing that would make me hesitant to pick them it is their Keeper. He still does not seem to be the most solid at decision making and makes some mistakes. And I am not sure their backups are ready to come in and take charge either. Other than that I think they can make a run like they did in 2018. Although as I always say about 2018, things could have been very different if they faced a Colombia team with their best player James.
Maybe. We have to qualify first. Assuming we do cross the finish line in the top 4/5 and we do make it to Qatar there's a lot of question marks. The main one being our creative attacking midfield. James Rodriguez is going through a lot right now and his situation is more of a distraction than anything else. Our best player from the 2018 World Cup JuanFer Quintero is playing in China and was not allowed to leave the country due to Corona protocols. But if/when he is allowed to leave there's still questions about his health and his motivation (some media saying he is considering retiring). If those two players can get healthy and mentally ready with no distractions I think Colombia can compete with anyone in the World. Without them It would be an uphill battle but Colombia can still be competitive. Just not sure the team can be a Dark Horse without those two.
Now that Copa America and Euros are over, do you have a different mind about the favorites to win in Qatar?
100%. So many different variables for this one too. The climate. Being played mid season rather than post season etc etc
Yup. And even in a normal World Cup year you usually cannot base anything on Copa Americas and Euros. There are teams that are exceptions like Spain 2010 but that team went on a historic run like no other recent team.
Messi winning the Copa makes me want to NOT pick Argentina now. The odds of him winning back-to-back trophies in back-to-back years just seems against him. That said, they can make a run at it.
The difference is, this time the Euros (and Copa) are closer to the next World Cup. I don't think the 'Qatar' variable is as big as people are making out. When you take travel, end-of-season fatigue and weather out of the equation it doesn't make it more unpredictable IMO. Logically, its the opposite. i.e. we have fewer variables than usual.