WCQ 02 FIRST 6 MATCHES: 7 Points -3 GD 2 WINS 3 LOSSES 1 TIE Went on to place 2nd Overall in WCQ WCQ 06 FIRST 6 MATCHES: 7 Points -1 GD 2 WINS 3 LOSSES 1 TIE Went on to place 3rd Overall in WCQ WCQ 10 FIRST 6 MATCHES: 5 Pts, -6 GD 1 WINS 3 LOSSES 2 TIE Basically, we were 20 seconds away from equalling our output thus far in the last two WCQ cycles. While the tie against Colombia is unfortunate, it wasn't really out of reasonable expectations. They tied us in '02 qualifying and Salas squeaked one by them to win 2-1 for '06 (man, I want him back). So basically they have always played us tough. I see a lot of differences so far during this 2010 qualifying campaign. I think teams are generally more evenly matched. Brazil and Argentina have struggled and will not breeze by as they usually do. Venezuela's improvement means no longer an easy 6 points from them. This will make the spread between the top and bottom teams more tight. We might see a bit of mayhem on the final match day, with possibly only 1 or 2 teams qualified and the remaining 3-4 spots up for grabs. What does this mean? It means that the teams that qualify will end up with less points, on average, than for 02 and 06. This sounds weird, but a few ties at home may not hurt - as long as we get some ties away, and we avoid losing at home (especially against direct competitors). Due to the length of this campaign, most of the other teams will go through rough patches at some point. At the end of the day, we need to hang in tough by consistenly picking up points and making sure we still remain within striking distance. Hopefully this team that seems to be more balanced and individually talented than either of the past two cycles will gel, one of our strikers will recover his form, and we'll hit a stride and position ourselves for one of the top spots.
Manolo, it's great that you put this together. Although I already understood that math, many people who might be panicking can rest easier because we are still alive. Great post, especially for the worried...thanks for putting it into perspective
Awesome post, It's really motivating although The points is not what worries me the most It's our lack of offense and scoring but like you said Its still a long way and a lot can happen.
I know ... lol I noticed it last minute but couldn't go back and edit it... I was hoping no one would notice that. but yea .. my bad .. our win against peru was at home.