What if 16 were seeded?

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by eastex, Dec 16, 2005.

  1. eastex

    eastex New Member

    Jul 22, 2005
    Nacogdoches, TX
    Forgive me if this has been posted before, but I haven't seen a discussion on it. What if 16 teams were seeded? Draw 1-8 into their own groups, then place 9-16 accordingly. 16 goes into a group with 1, etc. The rest would be drawn as they are now.

    I haven't really thought this through, so tell me why it wouldn't work. I guess this could be a way to lower the chances "group of death" scenerio (although the group with 8 and 9 would probably be pretty tough). Do you guys think something like this would make the draw more balanced? Would a more balanced draw make the WC better or worse?
  2. MRschizoid21

    MRschizoid21 Member

    Nov 5, 2004
    Brooklyn, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I like it a lot.

    BUT - thinking about it, seeding all the teams would be even better.
  3. Dadinho

    Dadinho Member

    Feb 19, 2005
    San Diego
    Vitoria Salvador
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If you were to seed 16 or all 32 teams you'd also have to scrap many of the rules involved with the current draws.

    For example, you would have to allow for non-european teams to be grouped with others from their own confederation.
  4. MRschizoid21

    MRschizoid21 Member

    Nov 5, 2004
    Brooklyn, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would like that very much. It stops too many different possibilities.
  5. eastex

    eastex New Member

    Jul 22, 2005
    Nacogdoches, TX
    Yeah. That's true. I guess FIFA would have to lower the emphasis on geographically diverse groups.
  6. eastex

    eastex New Member

    Jul 22, 2005
    Nacogdoches, TX
    That would be awesome if FIFA could find a way to make it work.
  7. kevbrunton

    kevbrunton New Member

    Feb 27, 2001
    Edwardsburg, MI
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually, I think you could get your geographic diversity and still seed all the teams...

    Here's the 2006 Seeding Table

    Pot 1 - Brazil, England, Spain, Germany, Mexico, France, Argentina, Italy
    Pot 2 - USA, Netherlands, South Korea, Japan, Sweden, Croatia, Paraguay, Czech Republic
    Pot 3 - Portugal, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Iran, Tunisia, Ecuador, Serbia
    Pot 4 - Switzerland, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, Australia, Trinidad, Ghana, Angola, Togo

    Suppose the draw from the first pot goes just like it did...

    Group A - Germany
    Group B - England
    Group C - Argentina
    Group D - Mexico
    Group E - Italy
    Group F - Brazil
    Group G - France
    Group H - Spain

    Then from Pot 2 - the rules are that USA can't go into D, Paraguay can't go into C or F - btw, I did this mock draw using a random number generator - not preselecting anything.

    First draw, Czech Rep - goes into Group A
    Next, Paraguay - goes into Group B
    Next, Croatia - goes into Group C
    Next, South Korea - goes into Group D
    Next, Netherlands - goes into Group E
    Next, Japan - goes into Group F
    Next, Sweden - goes into Group G
    Finally, USA - goes into Group H

    So now we have...

    Group A - Germany, Czech Republic
    Group B - England, Paraguay
    Group C - Argentina, Croatia
    Group D - Mexico, South Korea
    Group E - Italy, Netherlands
    Group F - Brazil, Japan
    Group G - France, Sweden
    Group H - Spain, USA

    Then the Pot 3 draw - at this point, Costa Rica cannot go into Groups D or H. Saudi Arabia & Iran cannot go into groups D or F. Ecuador cannot go into groups B, C or F. Finally, Groups A, E & G already have 2 European teams, so Portugal, Poland Serbia cannot be drawn into them.

    So, now the draw...

    First draw, Costa Rica - goes to Group A
    Next, Saudia Arabia - goes to Group B
    Next, Iran - goes to Group C
    Next, Poland - goes to Group D
    Next, Portugal - they can't go in E - so they go to Group F
    Next, Tunisia - goes into Group E
    At this point, Serbia can only go into Group H
    So Ecuador goes into Group G

    So after Pot 3 is drawn, we have the following...

    Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica
    Group B - England, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia
    Group C - Argentina, Croatia, Iran
    Group D - Mexico, South Korea, Poland
    Group E - Italy, Netherlands, Tunisia
    Group F - Brazil, Japan, Portugal
    Group G - France, Sweden, Ecuador
    Group H - Spain, USA, Serbia

    Now, Pot 4 - Switzerland & Ukraine can only go in Groups C, D or F. Trinidad & Tobago can't go in Groups A, D or H. African teams can't go in E.

    Now the draw...

    First draw, Ghana - goes into Group A
    Next, Ivory Coast - goes into Group B
    Next, Trinidad & Tobago - goes into Group C
    Next, Australia - since we have 2 Euro teams left and only 2 pots to put them into, Australia cannot go into D. Australia gets put into Group E
    Next, Switzerland - goes into Group D
    Next, Ukraine - goes into Group F
    Next, Angola - goes into Group G
    Finally, Togo - goes into Group H

    And we wind up with ...

    Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Ghana
    Group B - England, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Ivory Coast
    Group C - Argentina, Croatia, Iran, Trinidad & Tobago
    Group D - Mexico, South Korea, Poland, Switzerland
    Group E - Italy, Netherlands, Tunisia, Australia
    Group F - Brazil, Japan, Portugal, Ukraine
    Group G - France, Sweden, Ecuador, Angola
    Group H - Spain, USA, Serbia, Togo

    So whether you agree with their seeding formula or not - you can seed all 32 teams and still achieve the geographic balance desired.
  8. eastex

    eastex New Member

    Jul 22, 2005
    Nacogdoches, TX
    That would be a pretty balanced group stage. This type of system would reward teams like Japan, USA, South Korea, Netherlands, etc. for good performance (though not good enough to warrant a top 8 seed). It would also ensure that each of the top 8 seeds has at least one serious challenger to win the group. It kind of bothers me that France and Spain have a cakewalk in the WC 06 group stage, just because they were seeded in the top 8 and were lucky in the draw. I'm not arguing that they shouldn't be seeded, just that they should face tougher competition (on paper) than Argentina in the group stage based on their lower relative seeds.

    I'm glad somebody smarter (and more motivated) than me added to this discussion. Thanks.

    (edit) I'm an idiot - France and Spain are not seeded lower relative to Argentina. Hopefully you still get the point I was trying to make: higher seed should = easier (on paper) draw.
  9. Cannon

    Cannon Member

    United States
    Sep 2, 2001
    Washington, DC metro
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Balanced draw...except for the fact that Germany could easily be out in the group stage. Not a chance FIFA allows that.

    Group A - Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Ghana
    Real draw: Germany, Poland, Costa Rica, Ecuador

    I'd sure rather have the real draw.
    Czech > Poland
    Ghana > Ecuador

    Haven't really thought about it but perhaps 16 seeded = harder to fix the draw. Every seed would have to get a top 16 team.
  10. eastex

    eastex New Member

    Jul 22, 2005
    Nacogdoches, TX
    You're right - the host nation (even if they are seeded top 8) could be put in a very tough group. I would agree that it makes the tournament better when the host nation does well, but I wonder if this should be done at the expense of overall balance.
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Considering the draw kevbrunton did for the United States, I wish 16 teams were seeded. It also supports my belief that the real Group E is harder than Group C because the real Group C could have been drawn using kevbrunton's method but the real Group E has three of the top sixteen and could not have been drawn using kevbrunton's method. I gave kevbrunton good rep.
  12. voiceoflg

    voiceoflg Member+

    Dec 8, 2005
    I know using FIFA's ranking will draw some scoffs. But in the absence of something better and quicker, I will use that.

    Using the same seeds FIFA did, but ranking them in order 1-8 as they appear on FIFA's ranking, then filling out the rest 9-32 also in order that they appear here, this is what I came up with. No geographic rules and no random draw were used.

    1 Brazil
    32 Angola
    16 Croatia
    17 Costa Rica

    8 Germany
    25 Ukraine
    9 Czech Republic
    24 Ecuador

    4 Spain
    29 Ghana
    13 Sweden
    20 Korea Republic

    5 Mexico
    28 Australia
    12 Portugal
    21 Paraguay

    2 Argentina
    31 Togo
    15 Iran
    18 Poland

    7 Italy
    26 Cote d' Ivoire
    10 Netherlands
    23 Switzerland

    3 France
    30 Trinidad and Tobago
    14 Japan
    19 Tunisia

    6 England
    27 Serbia-Montenegro
    11 United States
    22 Saudi Arabia

    Feel free to dissect it.
  13. kevbrunton

    kevbrunton New Member

    Feb 27, 2001
    Edwardsburg, MI
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Your premise is fine - just seed them 1-32 - but why use the static FIFA rankings. Just use the same mechanism that FIFA used to seed them. They ranked all 32 teams here. Also, I'd group them teams according to the following groupings...

    1, 16, 24, 25
    2, 15, 23, 26
    3, 14, 22, 27
    4, 13, 21, 28
    5, 12, 20, 29
    6, 11, 19, 30
    7, 10, 18, 31
    8, 9, 17, 32

    This balances the groups better than the way you laid it out.

    You'd wind up with the following groups. Note, the teams have been put in these groups to properly match up 1v8, 2v7, etc. should those teams all survive to the quarterfinals.

    Group A - Germany, Sweden, Iran, Australia
    Group B - England, Paraguay, Ecuador, Ukraine
    Group C - Mexico, Japan, Poland, Trinidad and Tobago
    Group D - Argentina, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Angola
    Group E - Brazil, Czech Republic, Serbia and Montenegro, Switzerland
    Group F - Spain, Croatia, Tunisia, Ivory Coast
    Group G - Italy, USA, Portugal, Togo
    Group H - France, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Ghana

    Interesting matchups here...
  14. Edwin Thorne

    Edwin Thorne New Member

    Jun 4, 2004
    Kalamazoo, MI
    Seeding teams and placing those teams into pots is an excellent idea for generating pots of relative strengths for the WC draw. I like the notion of the draw, however, over the idea of simply lining teams up by seeds. This brings some randomness into the Group play where number 1 seed (Pot A) could get a tougher challenge by draing number 9 seed (Pot B). At least it would be more exciting as far as the WC draw goes.
  15. leg_breaker

    leg_breaker Member

    Dec 23, 2005
    I don't see how Spain and Mexico are seeded, but Portugal and Holland aren't.

    They may have done better in 2002, but the whole point of seeds is to keep the best teams apart in THIS world cup, not the last one. I know I'd rather have Spain and Mexico in our group than Portugal and Holland.
  16. Ombak

    Ombak Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 19, 1999
    Irvine, CA
    Flamengo Rio Janeiro
    Nat'l Team:
    And how do you objectively measure the best teams?
  17. JugglinNCWest7

    JugglinNCWest7 New Member

    Feb 18, 2006
    Raleigh, NC
    Using logic... and a little bit of magic :D
  18. JugglinNCWest7

    JugglinNCWest7 New Member

    Feb 18, 2006
    Raleigh, NC
    Anyway you slice it... Groups B, E, and F have 3 of the top 16 teams ranked by FIFA while A, D, and H only have 1... Just looking at that should say something about how unbalanced the groupings are and that the system needs to change.

    A: 4, 18, 20, 23
    B: 2, 13, 15, 29
    C: 7, 10, 24, 27
    D: 5, 17, 21, 31
    E: 8, 9, 16, 30
    F: 1, 12, 14, 28
    G: 6, 11, 25, 32
    H: 3, 19, 22, 26

    Looking at the numbers... the toughest groups according to FIFA are E, F, and B. Anybody have a problem with this? Brazil (F) has the "2nd toughest" group and we're not even sure which team deserves to advance. The easiest groups are A, D, and H.
  19. leg_breaker

    leg_breaker Member

    Dec 23, 2005
    I'd say the top 8 seeds should be:

    Czech Republic

    And the second seeds:


    Hosts, if they otherwise aren't seeded, should go in the second pot not the first.

Share This Page