Hello. Confederations Cup and Gold Cup played a bit of havoc on the FIFA coke rankings. So here are the seeding formula results. Just 4 more times we shall do this before the World Cup draw! This month: 63.67 Brazil 48.67 Spain 48.17 Germany 47.67 Mexico 47.00 Argentina 46.17 England 45.17 Italy 44.00 France _______________ 42.67 Netherlands 42.00 USA ----------------- 36.50 Turkey 32.67 Ireland NOTE: We really shouldn't see any change in August--except for USA. USA plays Gold Cup semis (and hopefully final). All other teams will be idle until the day August's rankings are announced. September's rankings will probably have the most dramatic effect between now and the draw. Please refer to the old threads and the FAQ before posting. cheers Note: Here's the last thread: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=199199
Faq Why is this list different than FIFA's coke rankings? Because Fifa's coke rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula. What is the seeding formula used for? The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage. What is the seeding formula exactly? The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 3 world cups and the FIFA coca-cola rankings of the last three years. Specifically: [1(wc94) + 2(wc98) + 3(wc02)]/6 = Part A (FIFA ranking 12/03 + FIFA ranking 12/04 + FIFA ranking 11/05)/3 = Part B Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula How is the world cup performance determined? 0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year. 8 points are awarded if the country finished last in their group. 9 points are awarded if the country finished 3rd in their group. All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points. How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded? Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. Why don't you show all 32 teams seeding formula results? Primarily, because I don't want to accidentally misinform. Only the top 8 teams receive seeds. Teams 9-16 are not placed in a second tier--so really it's irrelevent to show all teams' seedings results. However, if you ask for it, I will show it. How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula? I pick the 32 countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation as much as is possible. For example, the best 14 European teams by FIFA ranking as long as there are at least one team from each Euro qualifying group and no more than two from each qualifying group. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind. Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula? No. However, the last world cup this was the specific formula used. World cups '98 and '94 used a formula extremely similar--possibly identical, but the details of those formulas were never spelled out as specifically as the one used in '02. It is possible that FIFA could change the formula or alter it, but because the last three world cups used this formula, it is a good projection of which teams will be seeded. Why do you do a monthly mock draw? Only to encourage the excitement/anticipation of the world cup. Why do I see Country X in your mock draw when Country X probably won't qualify? Because Country X is ranked higher and has yet to be eliminated from qualifying. Why don't I see Country Y in your mock draw when Country Y will probably qualify? Because Country Y is not ranked high enough and has not yet qualified--once either of those happens, you will see Country Y in the mock draw. How is the mock draw determined? I use the same pots that were used in the last 2 world cups. Pot A has seeded teams. Pot B has European teams. Pot C has non-seeded Concacaf and African teams. Pot D has non-seeded South American, Asian and Oceania teams The leftover Euro team is placed in either Pot C or D depending on which Pot needs another team. It is possible that FIFA will change the Pots this year, but until they announce that, I will conduct the mock draws using '02's model.
Re: Faq So we would need a net change of two relative to the Netherlands to tie (and who knows what FIFA would do then) or three to move ahead. With the Czech Republic close to them and us close to Mexico, net two seems to be within the realm of possibility, setting aside issues with aging results.
July's Mock Draw If these teams appear dubious, please refer to the FAQ (frequently asked questions). Group A Germany Greece USA Iran (I'll take that one) Group B England Sweden Costa Rica Saudi Arabia Group C France Croatia Nigeria Colombia Group D Italy Czech Republic Senegal Ecuador Group E Mexico Poland Tunisia Uruguay (Oh, the joys of being seeded!) Group F Brazil Portugal Ireland South Korea Group G Spain Turkey South Africa Japan Group H Argentina Netherlands Cameroon Bahrain (that group would pretty much destroy Asia maintaining 4.5 slots)
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Hold on for one minute hear. Portugal and Brazil in the same division ?!!!! Nope sorry not allowed. I swear there must be a law somewhere.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Group E Mexico Poland Tunisia Uruguay I'll take this one , where do I sign ?
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Yes, it's the obscure "no country in with the country they colonized" rule. They implemented this when we beat England in 1950
I think you missed a couple changes that affect which teams should be in the draw... Denmark moves ahead of Greece to take the 2nd spot from UEFA Group 2 Egypt moves ahead of Cameroon to be highest ranked in CAF Group 3 You got... Tunisia moves ahead of Morocco to be highest ranked in CAF Group 5 Ecuador moves ahead of Paraguay in rankings in CONMEBOL
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Brought in from the FIFA rankings thread, these are the WCQs that the US and the Netherlands have left: --- USA- T&T (58), Mexico (5), @ Guatemala (61), @ Costa Rica (23), Panama (83). Holland- Armenia (119), Andorra (135), @ Czech rep (4), Macedonia (94) --- Amazingly enough, ours are actually better than theirs, with the exception of them playing the Czechs away, where we play Mexico at home. If we come close to running the table (dropping no more than one result) and they drop that match at Czech, we could conceivably pass them.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Actually, there's 3 points to make here... 1) Saturday's win over Jamaica (41) wasn't counted in this months rankings and could factor into our points earned. 2) Thursday game against Honduras (39) and Sunday's possible game against either Colombia (25) or Panama (83) could also get factored in. 3) Looking only at our remaining games doesn't help. What you have to look at is remaining games where we could get more points than one of our earlier 7 games. Remember that only the best 7 games count in the rankings. So far this year, our best 7 game are LIKELY... WCQ v. Costa Rica (23), W 3-0 WCQ v. Guatemala (61), W 2-0 WCQ @ T&T (58), W 2-1 WCQ @ Panama (83), W 3-0 GC v. Cuba (75) , W 4-1 GC v. Canada (84), W 2-0 Friendly v. Colombia (25), W 3-0 I know you get points for draws and losses too and it's entirely possible that a draw in the GC against Costa Rica is worth more than one of those wins. But I don't know. I'm just guessing on these. So, of our game last Saturday and our remaining 7 games, which ones could increase our points... GC v. Colombia (25) GC v. Honduras (39) GC v. Jamaica (41) WCQ v. Mexico (5) WCQ @ Costa Rica (23) -- I'm not sure which of these already on our books give us more points WCQ v. Costa Rica (23), W 3-0 WCQ @ T&T (58), W 2-1 -- or -- GC v. Cuba (75) , W 4-1 GC v. Canada (84), W 2-0 So the 1 GC game not counted and the 2 remaining GC games with wins would definitely help us. The WCQ games against Mexico and at Costa Rica would also almost certainly help. The rest won't factor in.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Not quite. The best 7 games count the most, but the rest are used: From FIFA's "Ranking Procedure" web page: http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/rank/procedures/0,2540,3,00.html (emphasis mine)
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Actually I believe Argentina plays China in a friendly. All the other top ten teams are off.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Okay. Here's a question: Given that the US made up 1 1/2 points on France this month, Holland .67 of a point, are we sure France can't get caught by either Holladn or the US if they qualify? Say if France has to go to a playoff (meaning they lose one or more of their remaining WCQ games and also add in they lose one of the two legs in their playoff). What then?
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 So the August rankings won't take into account the games played on August 17th? Because Mexico plays Costa Rica then in WCQ. If Mexico wins, that will surely boost them a lot more than a win over T&T would boost us.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 For this discussion, we're assuming France will qualify. France has 4 WCQ left - Faroes, Cyprus, Ireland and Switzerland. If they beat the two minnows and lose the other two - a scenario that will generate the least amount of ranking points - they would be unlikely of qualifying for the WC. (They'd probably only make it by winning a playoff with another 3rd place team - and those two games would add up ranking points too.) More realistically, France would also have to beat Ireland or Switzerland. The question is whether France could win all those games, and still drop 4 positions in the rankings. (I'm assuming Netherlands won't get any higher, and the US could only get as high as 4th.) That ranking change would put all 3 teams tie for the 8th seed position, by my reckoning. England, Spain and Portugal, currently directly below France, would be expected to gain points during their remaining qualifiers, so they could surpass France. But it's that last position that will be the kicker. Germany won points this time, but they don't have to qualify, so they will begin to drop again. That leaves a team that's quite a bit below France to pass them. Turkey, Italy, Ireland or Sweden, maybe, just maybe. Japan and Iran, probably not, their qualifying is done. Uruguay ... how far down the list do you want to go? I'd bet against it.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 No. BTW, Netherlands play Germany on 8/17, that's a big game for us.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Oy. I somehow totally missed that. Well, in that case, I have no clue. Time to just sit back and let the number crunchers do their work, and the next couple months of games take place.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 On the FIFA rankings thread, someone pulled a quote from the FIFA site saying that they only count games through the Thurday before the rankings come out. Haven't checked to confirm it myself, but it sounds reasonable.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Actually, I didn't miss those. It's impossible for both Denmark and Turkey to qualify from the same group. (It isn't impossible for Turkey and Greece to qualify--although it is highly improbable; Both Turkey and Greece would have to win out while Ukraine loses all their remaining games. Turkey and Denmark would both need to win all of their games to surpass Ukraine and that cannot happen as they are scheduled to play each other). As far as Egypt is concerned, I am under the impression they are eliminated. Even if Egypt wins their last two games and Ivory Coast loses their last two games--they will be tied on points but Ivory Coast has won both games against Egypt, so therefore ahead on head to head. If the next tiebreaker is goal differential, then I've made a mistake.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 OK, so I know this brings me back to the 'seven games' thing, but Holland will have played 8 qualifiers by the end of the year. Seems to me that a friendly against Germany isn't likely to be worth as many points as any of the qualifiers.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 They play teams like Andorra and Macedonia, so I bet a friendly win over Germany would be worth more points. Netherland's games this calendar year: 0-0 @ England 2-0 @ Romania 2-0 vs Armenia 2-0 vs Romania 4-0 @ Finland vs Germany @ Armenia vs Andorra @ Czech Republic vs Macedonia
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 I see - I thought you were strictly looking at the highest ranked teams in each group. You are actually factoring in the ability for a team to qualify - but just not the current standings.
Re: WC seeding formula :: updated July 20, 2005 Actually as pointed about by GaryV above -- all the games do count. It's just the best 7 have a heavier weighting than the rest.