Probably for travel/financial reasons they did not want to match up the small caribbean teams with Nicaragua and Belize in the first round. It does seem strange that Nicaragua/Belize automatically get to play Pot C opponents.
I don't want to turn this into yet another "is the draw rigged?" conspiracy theory thread, but I do want to ask you one question, and then I'll leave it alone. Please tell me, before the draw is made, what will be the outcome? Either specifically or generally, but preferably as specific as you're willing to be. Thanks.
Official word regarding 4th spot http://www.fifa.com/en/display/mrel,73248.html It's official now. The 4th placed Concacaf team will face the 5th placed Asian team for one of the 32 spots for the World Cup in Germany 2006. This is good news for Concacaf.
Re: Official word regarding 4th spot Anything can happen, of course, but if history is any guide, this should be a walk for CONCACAF. They have a clear plus score against Asian teams in World Cup competition.
Thanks for the link, eldiablito. I don't know what the draw will be, and it might actually be fair and random. On the other hand, it might not be. Voros posted a chart here some time ago showing, at least to me, that Haiti and Cuba did not belong in pot d, based on FIFA rankings. If we end up with either of them at least you were warned. I await tomorrow with great interest.
Hey, just because you're paranoid--it doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you. In all sincerity, I would think both Concacaf and FIFA would be very disappointed if USA was to be eliminated early. Hey world traveller Tom, did you also happen to notice that besides Haiti and Cuba both being the best teams of the 20 possibilities; they are also the two least desireable travel destinations?
As was posted on the voyageurs board when Candian fans were worrying about the same thing: Any team with pretentions of making the world cup should not be worried about beating Haiti or Cuba.
Agreed!! In fact, I would rather see the USA play one of these two instead of Montserrat, Antigua, etc. A game against a bottom rung Caribbean team would provide no indication of the US teams' strengths/weaknesses heading into group play. Especially if that Group play involved Honduras, Canada, and Guatemala. And I beleive the risk of being eliminated in a home-home series with Cuba or Haiti is still essentially zero.
Re: Official word regarding 4th spot I'm going to play around with this in my mind for a bit. First off, the only CONCACAF team I care about qualifying for Germany '06 is the USMNT. Now, let's consider the top two Asian qualifiers for 2002, which were Saudia Arabia and China and say they do it again in 2006. Let's also throw in the automatic qualifiers in 2002, (because they were hosts) Japan and South Korea. That leaves the 5th and 6th place Asian teams in 2002 as Iran and UAE. Now, Iran defeated UAE in a home-and-home playoff to become the fifth place Asian team, but they did not qualify for the WC because they (barely) lost a home-and-home with Ireland, 0-2 and 1-0. So, let's say, in the worst scenario, that the US finishes fourth in CONCACAF and has to play either UAE or Iran (OR THE EQUIVALENT STRENGTH TEAM)for the final spot. Completely forget the political situation/ramifications, just the sporting/soccer ones: Winning away, even drawing, would be extremely difficult because I guarantee there will be a full stadium of home support (100,000 if in Iran--very Azteca-like atmosphere, except for the altititude; I'm not familiar with the stadium sizes in UAE). This would create a one-game, win at all costs, situation at whichever home venue in the US that USSF deems appropriate. If it came down to that, well, what do you think would happen??? (Then again, it could be against Macao or Brunei so what am I worrying about?) BTW, does Australia/Oceania fit in the Asian scenario somewhere?
Re: Re: Official word regarding 4th spot To answer your last question first, No. Oceania gets one half slot to fight for among Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga, and a few more islands one is usually not familiar with. The winner of that half-spot plays against the 5th placed South American team for 1 of 32 world cup spots. Now regarding Concacaf: I understand your sentiment regarding the US, but because all Concacaf teams showed well in j/k2002, the region received an extra half spot this time. Therefore, qualifying is, theoretically, easier this time around. One has to be top 3 to qualify outright, but 4th place out of 6 hexagonal teams, still receives a very good chance of qualifying. You can worry about that team being Iran if you want, but that is highly unlikely. Asia's qualifying structure last time was flaky due to having two co-hosts. Iran ended up in the same group as Saudi Arabia (bad luck). China cruised over an extremely weak group. The structure of Asian qualifying this time around, allows more for the cream to rise to the top. It's possible Iran will be 5th place, but more likely possibilities are Iraq, Kuwait, or maybe China. I guess you can start worrying about Iraq now.
Group 1 Grenada/Guyana vs. USA Group 2 Bermuda/Montserrat vs. El Salvador Group 3 Haiti/TurksCaicos vs. Jamaica Group 4 Brit. Virgin/St. Lucia vs. Panama Group 5 Cayman Is/Cuba vs. Costa Rica Group 6 Aruba/Surinam vs. Guatemala Group 7 Antigua/Neth. Antilles vs. Honduras Group 8 Canada vs. Belize Group 9 Dominica/Bahamas vs. Mexico Group 10 US Virgin/St. Kitts vs. Barbados Group 11 Dominican Rep/ANguilla vs. Trinidad Group 12 St. Vincent vs. Nicaragua
Group 5 Cayman Is/Cuba vs. Costa Rica This looks like the most intreasting group. Gotta figure that Cuba will get by the Cayman Islands.
Haiti/TurksCaicos vs. Jamaica <-- I find this group the most unfair... Since, to be honest, Haiti it's one of the top 10 teams in CONCACAF and well, on that group you're gonna loose one of the top 10 teams in CONCACAF (either Jamaica or Haiti) which really sucks...
UGLY AMERICANS AND MEXICANOS, REST EASY! I don't think our American or Mexican friends have to worry about not being in the top 3 of the hex, much less making it. Over 10 matches, their depth will come to the surface (it's not "any given Sunday"). All the other CONCACAF "contenders" have to worry about making it to the hex in the first place, and Costa Rica and Jamaica have to worry about making it to the Groups of Four, as Cuba and Haiti will be tough. Then in the hex, we'll be fighting for third alone, with fourth as the consolation. Japan and China will make it to the top four of Asia, as will South Korea if they manage not to be suprised by Vietnam in the first round when they leave out their Euro stringers overconfidently. If I go to Baghdad, Tehran, Djakarta, Pyongyang, or Riyadh to watch the playoff in November, 2005, (if Canada be so lucky) , you can bet I'll be having an equivalent of my "NO SOY GRINGO, SOY CANADIENSE!" tee-shirt printed up in the appropriate language.
If the USA, Mex, or CR cant get thru with their D squad thru this qualifiers hey have no place in the world cup.
Re: UGLY AMERICANS AND MEXICANOS, REST EASY! What's Arabic, Farsi, Indonesian, and Korean for "There's a difference?"
WC Qualifying CONCACAF - Analysis pt. I Thought I'd give a quick run down of how all of the matches stack up throw my little math toy of a system designed to predict such things. Listed will be the matchup, and the chances of victory according to the system. Grenada v. Guyana = Grenada 83%, Guyana 17% Grenada/Guyana v. U.S.A. = 1%/0% respectively, 99%/100% Bermuda v. Montserrat = 100%, 0% Bermuda v. El Salvador = 3%, 97% Haiti v. Turks & Caicos = 100%, 0% Haiti v. Jamaica = 21%, 79% St. Lucia v. UK Virgin Isl. = 100%, 0% St. Lucia v. Panama = 15%, 85% Cuba v. Cayman Isl. = 99%, 1% Cuba/Cayman Isl. v. Costa Rica = 10%/0%, 90%/100% Suriname v. Aruba = 99%, 1% Suriname/Aruba v. Guatemala = 6%/0%, 94%/100% Antigua & Barbuda v. Netherlands Ant. = 66%, 34% Antigua & Barbuda/Netherlands Ant. v. Honduras = 0%/0%, 100%/100% Canada v. Belize = 93%, 7% Dominica v. Bahamas = 96%, 4% Dominica/Bahamas v. Mexico = 0%/0%, 100%/100% St. Kitts & Nevis v. US Virgin Islands = 0%, 100% St. Kitts & Nevis v. Barbados = 43%, 57% Dominican Republic v. Anguilla = 99%, 1% Dominican Republic/Anguilla v. Trinidad & Tobago = 1%/0%, 99%/100% St. Vincent & Grenadines v. Nicaragua = 68%, 32% Biggest 1st rnd mismatch: Haiti v. Turks & Caicos Most competitive 1st rnd match: Antigua & Barbuda v. Netherlands Ant. 1st rd team with best chance of making the semis: St. Kitts and Nevis Easiest 2nd rd draw: Trinidad & Tobago Biggest favorite to reach semis: Mexico St. Kitts and Nevis is the best chance of a cinderella. They not only have a legitmate shot at the semis, but an outside shot of even making the hex. (They have beaten Barbados recently, and have wins over T%T and SV&G in the last five years) That would be MASSIVE for their country. I'll try and handicap possible semi groups in a bit, but I'll just mention that it's obvious which group is shaping up as the group of death.
So if form holds and there are no major upsets, the semifinal groups should be: Group 1 USA El Salvador Jamaica Panama Group 2 Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras Canada Group 3 Mexico Barbados Trinidad Nicaragua That group 2 is going be fun to watch. Although you've pretty much eliminted 2 of the top 8 teams in CONCACAF from that group alone. Sachin
If there was one team i didnt want Costa Rica to meet was Honduras. All of these teams have given Costa Rica hard times during qualifiers. Here the record. (w-l-t) CR vs Canada: 1-1-2 vs Honduras 3-7-7 vs Guatemala 7-4-4