[VIDEO] ABCWORLDNEWS: Being Young in Iran

I'll admit that this is a very hopeful sign.

However, wasn't it just a few years ago that we were hoping that the reform minded would win out. And then we got Pres Ahmajinad or however you spell it.

A few notes...

It was nice to see the defiant woman, but yet she wasn't defiant enough to throw off the scarf she is forced to wear.

The young man talked about all that the US and Iran had in common but failed to mention the major differences.

All in all, I thought it was a very interesting piece. I only hope that the political views of the young will not be so radical, will accept Israel living side by side with Arabs and will not merely do what they want, but force radical change in a country that needs it.

 

Thanks for the video.

 

Patience. Reform comes in waves. A lot of people thought we might have been witnessing the fall of communism in China in Tiannamen Square. It wasn't, but it was an important step.

The fact that there is a significant and young population in Iran that wants change bodes well for the future there.

 

Ignorant and biased video. Largely ignorant comments (Chris M being perhaps the exception). It would take too long to explain things and I am too lazy.

valanjak, I really wish I had the time and patience but I don't and many of your comments require too much reasoning against.

 

No, it is not simply the comment on Palestinian issue. I even agree that Iranians don't consider that as an important issue and the fact that an Islamic government is in power has lead to some calling them an Arab government and even worse when it came to silence the demonstrations some time ago (I don't wanna go into that).

However, Iranians don't care about social reforms as much as people outside of Iran are lead to believe. People care about having a comfortable life and their food comes first. That is why in the elections Karroubi and Ahmadinejad did so well while Moin didn't.

By showing clips from the affluent parts of Iran, you don't portray all of Iran.

And your statistic of 70% Iran not being religious is far from true!

Changes will happen but slowly. Foreign influence is the last thing anyone wants.

 

Well here's to hoping that the Youth of Iran will find their voice and find a way to get out from under the religious fanatics running the nation. Perhaps in time, and not to far from now this will happen.

 

Social reform is important, especially for the youth of the bigger cities.

But religion remains very important in less affluent parts of the big cities as well as smaller cities.

I am too lazy as I said before to explain everything but know that you are projecting your own views on Iran. Next time you go to Iran, instead of spending all your time in affluent part have a look at south Tehran and compare it with the North. Then go to smaller cities and villages. Alternatively ask people who know these people and you will see everything isn't as you think them to be.

 

Iran is a big country and you can have a different view of it depending on where you live in Iran. Which social class, which economic class, which region, etc. The video shown by ABC is good in one sense, and terrible in another.

It is a terrible video when it tries to extrapolate one statistic (70% of Iranians being young) and show one class of young Iranians to imply they represent all that 70%. That is a terrible lie.

It is a terrible video when it talks about the government throwing its critics in jail! The video itself belies that claim, given that in country's were mere criticism lands you in jail, you don't find people openly giving interviews to foreign journalists crticising their government on camera. More to the point, it is impossible to visit Iran and believe that merely criticising the government lands anyone in jail. (You can go to jail for doing certain things in addition to merely criticising, but that is a different issue).

It is a good video, however, for millions of Iranians, including those living outside, who are fed up with steretypes of their country -- and themselves --being depicted as part of some sort of a backward, crazed, Taleban like society. Most middle and upper middle class Iranians, numbering in the millions, live a life here that (with few superficial restrictions with occasionally arbitrary applications) is analogous to how people live in the West. Good or bad, that is a fact.

Politically, however, Iran is a society with the following break down, easy to understand if political science (as opposed to propaganda methodology) is used.

1) Roughly 20% of Iran's eligible voters have not voted in any recent elections, not even when in 1997 or 2000 when reformist won the elections. That 20% would include both those who are totally apolitical or clueless, as well as those who strongly identify with various exiled "opposition" groups such as MEK, monarchists, or ones claiming to represent ethnic or religious minorities.

2) The remaining 80% break down as follows:

a) Roughly 15-20% are extremely dissatisfied with the regime, are mainly secular in orienation, among them many are Westernized and will only participate if they feel their vote might lead to fundamental changes in Iran. They are the ones that steered the reformist movement towards more radical agendas, and the first to feel "betrayed" by it. Incidentally, a large part of the folks making up this group are from the segment depicted in this video.

b) Another 15% are more willing to participate, but they generally will vote for reformist type candidates and will generally not vote for the conservatives. Like the first group, this one is disatisfied as well but not to the same level or degree.

c) The rest of the population, some 50% of Iran's electorate as a whole, is traditional in orientation and divides itself between the different political wings in the regime depending on who can better tailor message to attract them. A large part of this group did vote for Khatami in 1997 and 2001, but they would not vote for someone like Moin, preferring instead figures like Karrubi. Among them, however, there are roughly 10 million voters who have consistently voted for "conservatives" and "hardliners". The latter constitute roughly 30% of the electorate who votes.

Once you realize the political break down in Iran, it is not hard to figure out why Ahmadinejad won. And once you understand these figures, you will also realize that Khatami did not win merely because of groups (a) and (b) I have listed above. He won because he, unlike a pure secular figure, was able to get a good chunk of group (c).

All this said, absent attempts to ruin Iran from outside or impose solutions that don't belong to Iran, I am confident that Iran's future will look very bright. In part because of the folks shown in that video, provided they don't fall for the propaganda that tells them that they either should get their way in full. Or they should not participate at all.

 

Well, Ken, I have to say, that breakdown of the voting population certainly makes sense.

Unfortunately, however, the Iranian government is a radically fundamentalist theocracy which has called for destruction of Israel, has funded terrorist groups, and is keen on getting nuclear weapons.

And it certainly doesn't seem to be losing power.

Whether we can wait for reform to take hold is debatable.

 

For my part, I just want to clarify that we need to be patient with the maturation of the reform movement, but I am not suggesting that we should be patient with the current government.

Indeed, the more pressure we can apply to it, the more incentive reformers have to make changes sooner rather than later.

 

We can afford to be interminably patient if the Mullahs weren't 18-36 months away from having a deliverable nuclear weapon.

And probably a mere 9 months from bringing the Busheur reactor on line.

I am sorry, anyway you slice these developments, it's not good. Not good at all.