For those who would like to adjust their portfolio in accordance with the risks of a military confrontation I refer you to ING's recent report. It's titled "Attacking Iran: The Market Impact of a suprise Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities". Apparently the economists at ING believe an Israeli strike is much more likely than a US attack. Maybe the ING strategy team should have consulted with the folks here at BigSoccer before they published their report. One bit of advice they give: buy oil. Would have never guessed that one on my own.
I would think this too, but I wonder, for a country that rarely has a weak stomach for a fight, if they have the stomach to do it right now.
I don't know - Halutz is gone, so a lot will depend on who will replace him. Ashkenazi is certainly someone who commands respect, at least on paper. If the scandal with Olmert progresses and he's "asked" to step down, who knows who will replace him, maybe Livni, maybe she will be the second Golda Meir, but who knows.
Israsel might feel backed into a corner, but I'm afraid that such a drastic move could back them into a corner! The problem is that the Iranian threat (1) isn't static and (2) is obviously not Israel's only concern. I'm a little worried that Israel isn't fully aware of issue 1.
Because if the enemy of your enemy is your friend then if you have a friend who has an enemy that means you are the enemy of your friend's enemy but if that enemy is also the enemy of your enemy then that means your enemy's enemy is your friend and enemy.
Meaning Israel can make things much worse vis-a-vis Iran! An Israeli attack on Iran would almost certainly be a mistake, regardless of the (possible, though very far from certain) short-term benefits. Even these little leaked semi-threats are counterproductive. Israel should confine it's threats and FOCUS to deterrence. If Iran attacks, Israel is ready for war. If Iran nukes Israel, Iran will suffer the same fate. Short of a secret memo detailing an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel, I see absolutely no scenario where an Israeli attack on Iran makes sense from a risk/reward analysis. It would make Iran a much more dangerous long-term enemy.
Well, war is rarely the only option. So all I'm saying is, when the cost benefit analysis is done, the fact that Israel is going through a bit of a malaise at the moment might tip things in favor of other options.
well, i don't know all the details, but was there a memo about about Iraq's plan to attack Israel before the Osiraq bombing?
How do we know for absolute certain that no US attack is imminent? US Wrestlers Arrive in Iran for Takhti Cup I considered opening a new thread to talk about the incredibly important role that sport has played in detente, particularly wrestling between the US and Iran. Certainly sport can also prolong conflict in "cold" form (see Iran-Israel for the other extreme), but in this case things like the Takhti Cup are essential engagements. I recall the Iranian team competing about 80 miles from where I live, in Spokane, in the Free Style World Championships in 1999. I also remember film from the first US wrestling contingent to Iran in 1998, for a cup competition. A US wrestler waved the Iranian flag following a silver medal performance, and gained some notice at the time. The event is not so "obvious" an opportunity for detente as it was under Khatami, who used sport and cultural exchanges very consciously in an attempt to encourage detente. Ahmadinejad has been much cooler in his approach to such exchanges - courteous, but cool. Even Khatami's efforts soured following the Axis of Evil comment from Bush in 2002, so it hasn't always been smooth even before Ahmadinejad's election. Essentially, we need this, if for nothing else than to remind wrestling fans in Iran (which means a majority of the population) than Americans are "normal" people, too.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070116/ap_on_sp_ot/iran_wrestling_2 TEHRAN, Iran - U.S. wrestlers were welcomed to Iran on Tuesday with bouquets of pink and white flowers at a time of increasing tensions between the two countries, recalling the days before Tehran's reformers were defeated by its current hard-line leadership. The Americans, wearing jackets emblazoned with "USA Wrestling," were given the warm greeting by young girls in traditional Iranian dresses at an airport in the southern city of Bandar Abbas. The 14 wrestlers are to participate Thursday and Friday in the Persian Gulf Cup, also known as the Takhti Cup, the top wrestling tournament in Iran, where the sport has been a national obsession for centuries. In a small — but, for Iranians, significant — goodwill gesture, the American wrestlers were exempted from having their fingerprints taken as they entered the country. Iran imposed the fingerprint requirement on Americans after the U.S. imposed a similar rule on visiting Iranians. In 2003, Iran boycotted the world freestyle wrestling championships in New York because of the U.S. policy, seen as humiliating.
The Iraq mission was much easier. It's highly questionable that even America could stop Iran's nuclear weapons program at this point. We also need to remember that Iraq and Israel had fought several wars. Israel has never fought a war with Iran going back to biblical times! While Iran is a very serious threat to Israel, the relationship and danger could get much worse. Would an attack on Iran make them more or less likely to try to "wipe Israel off the map?" An attack on Iran would be an extremely serious and dangerous move. Given an Israeli leadership that turned parts of Lebanon into rubble and then got cold feet when a few dozen soldiers got killed and they realized they'd actually have to fight a real war, I have my doubts about how carefully they think things through. Yes, to be honest, I'm worried that Israel will do something foolish.
Well U.S. Forces are stepping up their excersis in the Persian Gulf and will be sending another carrier to the region, while Iran is talking tough about nuclear standoff. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070118/ap_on_re_mi_ea/gates http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070118/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear IMO, much depends on Israeli leadership and whatever might happen with Iran - Olmerts does not have the power or will to do anything serious, but that might change if Peretz is fired.
Looks like some of the staunchest supporters of the Iraq Invastion have now turned into the harshest critics of the war. Interesting.
There have been a couple of interesting articles in the last few days indicating that Ahmadinejad's hand is being weakened by pressure from Khamenei and Parliament. Asia Times NY Times But even if Khamenei really does want Ahmadinejad to stay out of the nuclear debate does that indicate any Iranian move towards concessions to the US? I don't think so. Sounds like Khamenei wants a change in the tone of the debate, not the substance.
Iranian anti-US cartoon http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGOuBzwTz1c another one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCeJGAAW6jw
I am posting this message from the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, at the Hormuz hotel, which is hosting the US wrestling team. Indeed, my room was on the same floor as the US wrestlers. Although I talked to a few of the US wrestlers, and even attended a press conference at the hotel featuring the US coach and the executive director of US wrestling, I did not get around attending any of the matches. But I was glad to hear the US wrestling team express their gratitude for the hospitality they had encountered here. The US wrestlers are spending the day visiting Bandar Abbas, situated across the straits of Hormuz on the Persian Gulf. The weather here, quite unlike Tehran which is cold and has experienced a lot of snow this winter, is spring like. The people of Bandar Abbas are a friendly and quite a jovial bunch. The locals include those who have African decent (roughly 25% of the population), while others trace their roots to ancient Persian tribes and speak an ancient Persian dialect. Bandar Abbas, which used to be quite poor, has grown a lot recently and much of its population today is composed of immigrants from elsewhere in Iran. Nonetheless, this port city, whether its poorer areas or its more modern ones, exhibits a rather laid back and relaxed atmosphere which distinguishes it from the hustle and bustle of Tehran. I have enjoyed my trip here tremendously and wanted to also commend the Iranian wrestling federation for picking this venue for these games. In terms of political issues, and somewhat related to your post, I was tempted to ask the following question in the press conference last night, although I chose not to since I was sitting there merely as a hotel guest who decided to walk into the conference and not as someone otherwise affilated to the event. Specifically, I wanted to know if there was any political input in the decision of the US wrestling federation to accept the invitation to attend these games. In other words, I was curious if the State Department had recommended against accepting this inviation, and the US wrestling team had nonetheless chosen to attend? Or whether their attendance had the full blessing of the US government? One thing is for sure. Rightly or wrongly, despite the location of this port city very close to naval forces from both Iran and the US, you would never get the sense that you are visiting a city bracing itself for any sort of war! The atmosphere here has been just the opposite. For the Iranians here, let me recommend they visit Bandar Abbas, and especially take the ferry across to Gheshm Island. That island is bigger than many of the Arab states in the Persian Gulf and has a lot to offer visitors. From a beautiful coast, to a nice town and many scenic villages, to historic sites and more. Indeed, I would love to see Gheshm receive more attention from investors and authorities in Iran, since this place has more potential than places like Kish island. Gheshm can become a place that can accomodate many more tourists than it does right now, while at the same time elsewhere in this huge island, in the inlands, Iran should be able to expand the industrial manufacturing plants as well as the naval and other bases here.
I'm afraid that once Iran evolves it's thinking and decides that the US will attack it will be too late to avoid attack. I doubt either side has the vision to avoid a confrontation and I think it will spiral out of control when it happens.
This is a very true and the US always beat Iranians by making the Iranians work harder than they are used to. Our way of looking at wrestling is a combined game of mind and body, the mental aspect of the game is very similar to chess, whereas the US wants to always use brute force. That's pretty much American way of doing things in many ways which goes back to the vastness of resources from the begining, so that mentality has becomed integrated into the culture. It is also one of the fundamental reasons why the country is so wasteful.
Sounds like the tourney had some good moments. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/more/01/19/us.iran.wrestling.ap/index.html While Bush has done a terrible disservice for the US with his foreign policy, the hard liners in iran have been just as bad. Maybe those Iranian spectators can help lead the way to getting a better govt. there in Iran.