UNC 2023

Just thinking about who is returning and not the outstanding freshman class we supposedly have coming in ...

I think we lose some underrated and consistently healthy pieces in midfield. Moore did more for this team than I think a lot of people realize. I think we still have some really good players left there, but both Meza and Dellaperuta have a history of injury. That being said, if those two plus Colton can stay healthy that is arguably one of the better midfields I can remember UNC having in a while. I do vaguely remember were supposed to get an outstanding freshman next year as well, from the U20's but I'm drawing a blank on her name. She was excellent at the U20 WWC ... if those four click it'll arguably be the best midfield UNC ever had.

Our back line will be really good... healthy. Bell and Herr between Dellarose and Elgin, a veteran Tolentino still there as well.

on the front line Isabel Cox is a loss. Her regular replacement is up in the air but behind her the starting 11 is pretty clear cut: Allen; Dellarose, Bell, Herr, Elgin; Colton, Meza, Dellaperuta; Dahlien/Dellaperuta, Patterson, Sentnor.

Agree that Sentnor should be MAC Hermann Finalist at a minimum.

Writing all that I couldn't help but remember how much Anson heralded his depth coming into the 2022 season, and if the 2023 rookie class is as good as everybody seems to think that depth will still be a big advantage.

I also remember how we ended the year playing 15 players in the final three games. I like the idea of shortening the bench but it shouldn't have been the defacto route, especially against UCLA who were so vulnerable to the press in both games. I think that was a mistake and I hope we don't abandon the high rotation just because it worked against teams like FSU and ND. The depth is there and should be used against most teams short of the very elite midfield and attacking players.

 

My pre-season rankings, which I just finished, have Arkansas v Stanford and Florida State v North Carolina (again!) in the College Cup if teams finish in accord with their predicted strength.

 

it might be less about who is leaving and more about who is coming in ... UNC has the top recruiting class in the country.

from TDS:

The 2023 signing class includes forward Melina Rebimbas (No. 3 overall), defender Evelyn Shores (No. 6 overall), defender Savannah King (No. 10 overall), forward Olivia Thomas (No. 12 overall) forward Mia Oliaro (No. 18 overall) and goalkeeper Abby Gundry (No. 24 overall)

 

For my rankings, I only look at historic trends. For each team, based on its past ranking history (I use my own Balanced RPI rankings, which have results similar but not identical to Massey in most cases), I look to see which trend measure most closely has corresponded over time with its next year’s rank. I then assign it a rank for next year based on that trend. As examples, for North Carolina I use the average of its average rank over the last 9 years and its trended rank based on the last 4 years. For Florida State, I use its rank last year; for Arkansas its trended rank based on the last 8 years; and for Stanford its average rank over the last 9 years. Once I have these "preliminary" ranks for all teams, I then simply put them in order and assign final pre-season ranks accordingly.

So, what I do is just one way of doing pre-season rankings for teams. For each conference, the conference coaches rank their teams in order before each season. Chris Henderson also does it. This year, the coach and CH pre-season rankings of teams within their conferences ended up both being on average 2.44 positions away from where they ended up. When I ranked teams within the conferences based on my global pre-season rankings, I ended up at 2.61 positions away, so close but not quite as good. These numbers are pretty consistent with prior years.

As this shows, there are many ways to predict how teams will do next year. The coaches take into consideration everything they know about their conference opponents, which is a considerable amount of knowledge with many nuances. Chris Henderson considers numerous factors including among others players departing and players coming in. I only consider historic trends. All are legitimate ways to do it and none is perfect. I think that is the best way to look at such predictions.

It is interesting, however, to see how close the trend method comes to the coach and CH methods.

 

My daughter played against Thomas this past summer in a women's summer league, and she is very talented. Speed, size, finishing, etc... she has it all. I wouldn't be surprised if she comes right in and contributes for the Tarheels.

 

With its absurd recruiting, UNC should win the title every year. It's amazing that so many talented players join that program knowing that the odds are fairly high they're going to spend a lot of time standing on the sideline over their college career--as happens when you've got 20+ five stars on your roster.

 

You probably didn't mean this literally but it does raise an interesting question.

Is UNC underachieving relative to its talent level?

Everyone (on this board) knows that the Heels haven't won it all since 2012. In those 10 years they have gone to 5 College Cups and won or shared the ACC regular season or tournament title 5 times.

I don't have the recruiting rankings in front of me from the last 10 years but I think that it is safe to say that the Tar Heels have been probably been in the top 5 or 10 (almost) every year and have been #1 more than their fair share.

Yet they haven't won it all since 2012.

Nevertheless, I tend to think that they aren't underachieving.

Obviously how you answer this question depends greatly on your expectations. If you are one of those fans who believe that your team should win every year then you are probably disappointed by this record.

However, more measured fans realize that there is a lot more than HS talent that goes into winning titles. Coaching is also obviously important but injuries, luck and recently the portal are huge factors.

Also, I'm not sure how reliable these rankings are. This is not to throw shade on TDS but they are only one evaluator. Bigger sports like basketball and football have several evaluators and they miss on players all the time. No one can see every recruit in the country and even if they could it is very hard to project how good a player will be 2-4 years in the future.

Also, TDS doesn't really evaluate international players. That means that many teams (like FSU) aren't getting full credit for the talent that they are bringing in every year.

Finally, I would say that if you are getting to the CC every other year that isn't underachieving in my book although it may be a bit frustrating to Carolina fans. However, your mileage may vary.

 

How did you rank UCLA, UNC, FSU and Alabama in your last preseason rankings!

 

UCLA 13
UNC 4
FSU 2
Alabama 61

Given my method, it is not that surprising that I had UNC and FSU among the top four. They have been very consistent historically and thus relatively easy to predict using historic ranks as I do. Over the last 15 years (excluding 2020), UNC has had an average rank of #4 (rounded off) with a standard deviation of 3, which means that you should be able to count on UNC being within 3 rank positions of #4 roughly two-thirds of the time. This is extremely consistent. For FSU, its average rank is #7 with a standard deviation of 5, which likewise is very consistent. That I missed on UCLA is not that surprising, with an average rank of #8 and a standard deviation of 15. On the other hand, Alabama has an average rank of #76 with a standard deviation of 39, which makes it unpredictable and certainly not predictable as a #1 seed.

My pre-season predictions going into this year would have had Duke v UNC and Arkansas v FSU in the College Cup.

 

CP, I always just assume UNC and FSU will be in the College Cup nowadays. And most would predict Stanford with Alyssa Thompson. But Arkansas? The Razorbacks have made the quarterfinals only twice in program history and never advanced. Averaging seven of the last eight UCLA seasons would include those under the beleaguered Amanda Cromwell.

 

I know that Arkansas seems odd. But I have protocols I follow and I do not vary from them no matter what I think.

Of the history-based predictors I use, which are either average ranks over a set number of preceding years, trends over a set number of preceding years, or the two averaged together, for Arkansas the predictor that over the last six years has been most consistent with where its rank ends up is its trend over the preceding eight years (extended forward to next year), which puts it at #1 next year. Seems odd, but it is what it is. For UCLA, the best predictor is its average rank over the preceding nine years, which puts it at #8 next year.

Although Arkansas is an eyebrow raiser, here is what I have for the top 15 for next year, which does not look so bad (some may think Notre Dame should be higher up on the list).



These are not predicted final RPI rankings for next year. Rather, they are predictions of the team ranks in terms of strength. Because of the way the RPI formula works, even if these ranks were absolutely correct for all teams, their final RPI ranks next year could be quite different. This makes a point about the RPI -- it does not measure team strength but rather measures a combination of a team’s winning percentage and who it played, using a formula that has some significant deficiencies.

 

Looks like Abby Allen is transferring to Texas.

 

Marz Josephson to Kentucky was the transfer I saw.

I wonder if anybody has an official list of players who enter the transfer portal? I have to think there are a couple more, at least 3 or 4 every year.

 

Jessica McDonald comes to mind

 

Transferring both in and out for Anson has been historically low until very recently. For four+ decades the transfer-out number averaged significantly less than one player per season.

In this time span (from 1979 until present) the significant transfers-in were even lower with a rate of transfers in who played significantly only 6 by my count: Allie Long (2007 junior from PSU), Adelaide Gay (2010 junior from Yale), Alexa Newfield (2013 junior from Georgia), Abby Elinsky (2015 sophomore from Illinois), Lois Joel (2019 one season from WVA), and Emily Moxley (2021-22 junior from UNC-W)

Although technically she transferred in to UNC from a junior college, I don't count Jess McDonald as a "real" transfer. She committed to UNC in 2006, but had to catch up academically to be admitted and did so splendidly in the honors program at Phoenix College and graduated early in order to enroll at UNC in 2008. She started for three years and scored the winning goal in the 2009 NCAA championship game and has had a long pro career and some US senior national team caps.

There were also 5 more transfers-in but in 3 cases they did not play at all and the most active was Cannon Clough who played in 2016 primarily as a substitute with one start.

The best player we lost via transferring out was clearly Merritt Mathias. It was clear when I first saw her play in 2008 that she was an excellent player and would eventually be starting. She even did get some starts and significant playing time in her freshman and sophomore years, but she had the unfortunate timing of playing at UNC when the likes of Tobin Heath, Jess McDonald, Alliey Long, Whitney Engen, and Meghan Klingenberg, all of whom were already on, or would soon be on the US senior team, plus Casey Nogueira and Yael Averbush -both All Americans. With the exception of McDonald and Klingenberg all of these players would be gone by Mathias' junior year and I was hoping the Merritt could wait to become the recognized star that she was. Unfortunately for us UNC fans, she transferred to TAMU before her junior season and, good for her, she has had an excellent career since.

 

I'm sorry to hear that. She's been a real trouper for UNC. She was a stalwart center back for us for two years with out injury and did an excellent job. But this year changed that. She got some time early in this season and it was clear that the staff wanted her to play at her usual position. But the several looks that she had were really disappointing -not only for her but any one watching. Without any hard evidence, I'm wondering if she isn't suffering from long COVID. In the three times she played, she seemed to be in a brain fog, uncharacteristically tentative and just not her old self. I was really hoping that she would be all healed and ready to go for the 2023 season --and I hope that she is-- but at Texas and close to home. I wish her well, and with thanks and appreciation for her play here at UNC.

 

Looks like a good move for her. She will have graduated from UNC this spring and getting to play as a graduate student sounds perfect for her. She is a good keeper, and she certainly made some critical stops for us. She will do well at Kentucky.

By the way, is her move to Kentucky as a graduate student having graduated from UNC really a "transfer"? It seems to me that graduating from a university she is completely free from any hold the university would have on her. Could she not then present herself to another school and compete for a spot on the roster armed only with her 5th year privilege from the NCAA. Or does her absence from the team in her sophomore season to heal an injury make a difference because she then has two years eligibility?

 

I don't know if I'm reading her post as "happy to be able to come back this year" or "happy to be able to come back next year" ... but I think Emily Moxley seems to be saying she's returning next year on her Instagram. That's a big return for UNC if so.

 

Good information, Babs. Emily Moxley has certainly earned her keep. The defense next year should be quite strong with Maycee coming back from her injury and it will be interesting to see who will be her fellow defenders.

Tessa DellaRose made her mark this year starting every game until she was injured late in the season. Kayleigh Herr and Emerson Elgin (who like Tesa will be sophomores next fall) saw significant time this year and will also be firmly in the running.

In addition we have two great defenders coming in as freshmen and both of them could easily start. Savannah King from southern California and Evelyn Shores from Georgia. Savannah has been a starter with the U17s for the last 18 months -including the U17 world cup in India, while Evelyn has traveled with the U20s this last year (but did not make the final cut for the U20 world cup).

So for the moment not including not including Emily Moxley (who actually played offense for most of her two years at Carolina), we will have 6 very competent defenders plus Paige Tolentino who has significant experience as a sub. And these 7 defenders should be as good a defense as we have traditionally enjoyed.

But I must admit that I would LOVE to see Tori Hansen come back for a fifth year. She really didn't find her niche for her first three years. But boy did Tori stand out this fall ... and is in the running for the Honda award!! She played 2271 minutes this year which is more than double her minutes in her first three years combined. How 'bout an encore Tori?! And if Julia Dorsey also stayed for another year it would be amazing. Up to this point, UNC has not taken a 5th year starter. Emily Moxley would be a home grown first, and if Tori or Julia join it would be amazing!

 

the initial NWSL draft list has been released and there is not a single Tar Heel on it. Take from that as you will.

https://www.nwslsoccer.com/news/nws...istered-for-2023-nwsl-draft-presented-by-ally

 

Well, players have well over two more weeks to declare/register. There will be many.more names added, I'm sure.