Ukraine vs Russia III

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by argentine soccer fan, May 16, 2023.

  1. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    If Putin fears anything it wouldn't be losing an election but an Orange rebellion.
     
  2. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Won’t they just announce that Putin got 98% of the vote with something like 90% turnout regardless? Russia lacks a functioning opposition, so its not like they can drum up large scale protests if Putin doesn’t actually get those numbers.
     
  3. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Civil disobedience in Russia involves getting really, really drunk, as opposed to their normal state of just really drunk.

    That's why there hasn't been a revolution since 1917.
     
    yasik19 repped this.
  4. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In a surprise to approximately no one. Ukraine has finally admitted that they were behind an air defense attack that shutdown 2 Russian fighters and 3 helicopters last year inside of Russia.



    Previously it was announced that the aircraft were shot down in a friendly fire incident, but it turns out it was actually done with a Patriot battery.
     
  5. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    There have been plenty of revolutions but none successful.
     
  6. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For instance?
     
  7. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Kronstadt and Karaganda were 2 of them with Krondstadt having the bigger chance of success since it was near Leningrad. In Soviet Central Asia there were rebellions throughout the 20's.
     
  8. yasik19

    yasik19 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Chelsea
    Ukraine
    Oct 21, 2004
    Daly City
    I would call the Kronstdadt a rebellion more so than a revolution.
     
  9. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Kronstadt was pre-Stalin. Karaganda is not in Russia.
     
  10. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    I don't think Putin cares for the election as an election, but as a poll on what people think about him - as a confidence vote. Russia's economy and population and institutions have not yet suffered an appreciable amount from the war or even the Wagner revolutionish march. But that could change at any time. The election would help him find our how much time he has.

    What Putin would love is an agreement to freeze the fighting for a while and then restart it all later. Ukraine isn't the issue, it's just a battle in Putin's war against the West and getting too caught up in it hurts that larger war.
     
    The Irish Rover and bigredfutbol repped this.
  11. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course but they'll know the real data and if actual votes for Putin fall below a certain threshold then the regime will be in panic mode.
     
    The Irish Rover repped this.
  12. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If machinists and mechanics keeping Russian trains on the rails and planes in the air all quit working en masse, there's not much Putin can do to stop them. Hence the payouts and high salaries to keep certain parts of society running.
     
  13. yasik19

    yasik19 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Chelsea
    Ukraine
    Oct 21, 2004
    Daly City
    In fairness, Karaganda was USSR at that point.
     
  14. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But it was never Russia.

    We haven't seen an attempted revolution in Russia in the last hundred years and by that I mean demonstrators on the streets demanding political change, as in the Arab Spring, the Orange Revolution or even Tianamen Square.
     
  15. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Someone seems to have bent Mike Johnson’s ear about Ukraine. With the pro-Putin faction growing among Republican House members, Johnson has been making comments that are very favorable about passing funding for Ukraine. he wants to link it to US border funding, but Biden has said it should be included in funding for Israel and the border..

     
    deejay, edcalvi, ChrisSSBB and 1 other person repped this.
  16. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Russia is trying to cause an immigrant crisis on their border with Finland. Dozens/Hundreds of migrants from central Asia and the Middle East are showing up on Finland’s birder crossings. Interestingly, they have been provided with bikes to get them to the border, but since Finland is rejecting them at the border, the bikes are being abandoned and the migrants are taking buses back to St. Petersburg.

     
    spejic repped this.
  17. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    It's hard to have a revolution when the potential revolutionary leaders are either languishing in a maximum security prison in Siberia, or falling off high windows.
     
  18. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    xtomx repped this.
  19. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Since the war started the Russian budget deficit has been inching up, and now it's at about 1% of GDP. I'm sure everyone is now saying "What, that's all?" The United States budget deficit is somewhere around 6% of GDP and most European nations are somewhere around there. Even in times of great need, they still keep a close to balanced budget. It isn't because they are run by budget hawks, it's because they can't do any more than that. They are cut off from the world's financial market, so they can't borrow from the West. The places they can borrow from charge higher rates. They also can't borrow internally. In one example of why a strongly unequal wealth distribution is bad, most Russian save nothing and the very wealthy put their wealth overseas. There is no internal store of savings to tap, no disposable income buffer to increase taxation.

    This is something I brought up a long time ago - Russia cannot debt finance this war. They are stuck spending what they earn, and that depends on the price they can get for their oil. Russia's effort must stay within that limit. It is a place we can hurt them, if we have the will.
     
  20. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    #5845 The Irish Rover, Nov 28, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2023
    Even more relevant is the percentage turnout of registered voters. If the percentage of, ahem, "unassisted" voters (i.e. people who weren't rounded up and bussed to the polls or told that their government sinecure is at risk if they don't show up) is low, that's something that'll cause deep, deep concern in the Kremlin.

    This stuff is not important in a full-on dictatorship, but is crucial to an autocracy's legitimacy. It's something Putin pays attention to. A lot.



    Edit:
    Everything above is a repeat of this post, which probably put it better.
     
    bigredfutbol and American Brummie repped this.
  21. The Irish Rover

    The Irish Rover Member+

    Aug 1, 2010
    Dublin
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic
    Naah.

    Trump's too chickenshit for that.

    Cruel and malicious enough, certainly, but anything that approximates to courage?

    The question answers itself
     
  22. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    They like doing this kind of thing. They made sure that Europe was the destination for lots of Syrian and Libyan refugees.
     
    Minnman, Mike03 and bigredfutbol repped this.
  23. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Putin just solved the budget crisis. Taxes on Alcohol are set to increase next year.

     
  24. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And given the rise of the far Right and anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe, I think it is a tactic that worked for Putin.
     
    Cop Shoot Cop and spejic repped this.
  25. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes

Share This Page