UK General Election 2017

Discussion in 'Elections' started by The Biscuitman, Dec 11, 2014.

  1. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    The tories are pulling away
    Dude that's not my words that the words and feelings of the British people immigration according to the polls are their # 1 concern hence the rise of UKIP and the fast rise and yes fall of the EDL.the same is true in Germany with PEGIDA.
     
  2. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  3. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    People gonna believe what they wish to believe. Look at the GOP in 2012 and "unskewed polls." And being wrong is no penalty. Morning Joe crapped all over himself and his punishment is good ratings and mention as a GOP Senatorial possibility ... because you know, Senators are better when they don't understand the facts and make stuff up that they hope turns out to be true.

    [Rolls eyes.]
     
  4. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This much

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    We've found out where the tories are going to fill some of the black hole in the their budget... they're gonna nick it off of the charities...

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ll-off-homes-under-right-to-buy-10175492.html

    I seem to remember reading somewhere that something like 3/4 of the houses sold under 'right to buy', (when it should be called 'right to buy cheap), are now back being rented but NOW it's by private landlords, not the council.

    This is from a few years back and the situation has got a lot WORSE now.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2008/sep/30/housing.houseprices
     
  6. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    The guy's a troll... ignore him.

    But on the specific points you mention there are a couple of things worth saying.

    1. The bulk of the people coming in are the same race, (white Europeans), so race isn't really the issue, although bigotry might be.
    2. It's not a simple matter of percentages. It's also a matter of population density and WHERE immigrants actually move to...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_European_Union#Population_by_nation

    If you order that list by population density the countries at the TOP of it, (UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Italy), are already pretty densely populated and, in the case of the south east of Britain, you can probably multiply those figures by a factor of about 4 or 5. Almost half the population of the country live there.

    There are also issues specific to this country, including the way healthcare is funded because it's free at the point of access and the hospitals don't have a way to check who you are or where you come from. I mean, they ASK, but they have no way of checking.

    Of course, what we SHOULD be doing is working with our European partners to implement sensible systems but the current lot can't do that because it would actually engaging with Europe and that ain't gonna happen.
     
  7. White/Blue_since1860

    proudly banned from 5 sub forums
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Well the reasonable thing to do would be to make it a requirement to give info about who you are and if you are not are allowed to get access(to be determined who is) to social security instead of stopping immigration as a whole. Thats pretty European. Continental European. I know you dont have identity cards but hey welcome to the 21st century:
    [​IMG]
     
  8. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Our identity cards are called driver's licenses.
     
  9. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...gration-Labour-tried-destroy-Britishness.html

    Labour mass immigration policy was deliberate and an abject failure. Tbh Cameron is too much of a lefty imo but he and and the tories are preferable status quo to Red Ed.

    Why doesn't labour ever answer the question why did they abandoned there working class base and sold them down the river for corporate greed, neo-liberal economic policies and a neo-con Interventionist foregin policy. Why did they lie to the country about Iraq the EU and mass immigration? Why did they create the largest income inequality gap in UK history? Why did they become Tory lite? Why did Blair/Brown abandoned the very essence of why the Labour Party was created and instead ran into the arms of the Sun and big business. @Naughtius Maximus cannot answer that because he knows his party is morally and intellectual bankrupt hence the drubbing his party will receive in May yet again. Don't say I didn't tell you so.
     
  10. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    So, labour under "Red Ed" shouldn't be trusted because Blair and Brown were too right wing? Methinks you are a tad confused.
     
  11. The Biscuitman

    The Biscuitman Member+

    Jul 4, 2007
    Club:
    Reading FC
    Drubbing?

    Every political commentator, viewpoint and poll says neither the tories nor Labour will win a majority on their own. In fact most opinion polls have Labour in the lead.

    23 years since the Tories last won an election on their own :ROFLMAO:
     
  12. White/Blue_since1860

    proudly banned from 5 sub forums
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    "Waliatiger is a mug."

    That's not my words. Those are the words and feelings of the British people.
     
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  13. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You really seem to be into the you need 50%+1 (or what ever seats) to "win".
     
  14. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    He's not a mug...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

    He's been posting similar drivel across the boards but he hasn't realised we have a functional ignore function on bigsoccer. May I suggest people use it so as to avoid similar derailing of what could be perfectly good discussions ;)
     
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  15. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-cayman-islands-david-maclean-lord-blencathra

    A Conservative peer has described David Cameron’s flagship G8 anti-tax avoidance initiative as a “purely political gesture” designed to head off European attempts to curb the City of London.

    Lord Blencathra, the former Tory home office minister David Maclean, who was ennobled by David Cameron in 2011, told the government of the Cayman Islandslast year that the prime minister’s bid to increase transparency at offshore tax havens was an attempt to distract the G8 and EU.

    I, personally, am shocked... shocked I tell you!!!
     
  16. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is Cameron at least socially moderate? Because this is the type of shit our cons would pull.
     
  17. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Now lets not get ridiculous. ;)
     
  18. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
  19. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    I think he just understands that attitudes have changed somewhat since the 50s. Which is why Farage thinks he's a social democrat.
     
  20. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    W
    You know your party lost its way but are trying to do a weak recorrection.
     
  21. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    We shall see in May
     
  22. Anthony

    Anthony Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am an American and have no vote. I lived in London for 4 1/2 years but even had I stayed, I would not have become a citizen. My sympathizes though are with the Tories so take what I say next with these facts in mind.

    It is going to be a hung parliament. The UKIP vote might suddenly break toward the Tories or the SNP voters might come home to Labour but for some various reasons I doubt there will be much of that. While UKIP started as a Tory breakaway (when I lived in London, they called UKIP "Friday night Tories" -- basically they would say during the week what Tories would say on Friday night after knocking down a few gin & tonics) they are getting a bit of Labour support also. As for the SNP, now that independence has been taken off the table it is safe to vote for them. The Unionists most effective campaigner last year was Gordon Brown, and he is retiring as an MP.

    The polls have shifted a bit toward Labour the last week or so and given the electoral system's slight bias against the Tories that bodes well for Labour. But they still look unlikely to win a majority of seats. But no matter who wins the most seats, with the Lib Dems collapsing that means the only real coalition partner is the SNP. The Tories might be able to form a minority government with the Irish Unionists and remaining Lib Dems not in coalition but agreeing to not bring down the government, but I do not think there will be enough of them. I doubt the SNP will enter into coalition with the Tories, but you could imagine the Tories making a deal with the SNP to grant more powers to the Scottish parliament in return for the SNP absenting itself on English/Welsh matters.

    More likely I think is the SNP enters in a confidence and supply agreement with Labour. In return Labour grants maximum devolution to Scotland AND also agrees to close the Trident sub base in Scotland and maybe even dismantle the Trident system.

    One other outcome is a Grand Coalition. That has worked in Germany, not sure how it works in the UK. The last time that was tried in peacetime (The McDonald- Baldwin National Government of 1931-1939) it eventually turned into a mostly Tory government anyway. I am not sure Miliband would go for it as the recession is not the Great Depression (Supposedly Ned Heath stayed in parliament long after he had any reasonable chance of regaining power because he figured he would be available to lead an all party National Government in times of crisis)

    So in the end, I expect a minority Labour government.
     
  23. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dos a cero!
     
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  24. Naughtius Maximus

    Jul 10, 2001
    Shropshire
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    A grand coalition, (other than in the great depression, as you say), wouldn't work for political reasons.

    UKIP was always called 'The BNP in blazers' and that's not actually too far off the truth. Whether that's a compliment to the BNP or an insult to UKIP is another matter but, in many policy areas, they'd agree if you gave them a few G&T's. That's the reason they've had problems with some of their candidates and supporters going 'off message'... because that's how the rest of them think as well. They just don't say it when they're sober.

    UKIP are trying to maintain they're taking support direct from Labour but I suspect you could count the percentage of people going straight from Labour in the 2010 election to UKIP on the fingers of one hand. Now, if you extend the period back, say, 15-20 years, THEN you might be right but they've really only got the one policy that's ever likely to appeal to some of the older Labour voters, (of a particular stripe), and that's immigration and, if those people haven't gone tory by NOW, they'll probably NEVER go that way.

    Don't forget, call-me-dave said he was going to get immigration 'down the the tens of thousands' too so if THAT was all they were interested in and they weren't too well informed, (so likely to believe Farage), then why wouldn't they vote for the tories last time? It doesn't add up IMO.

    So I think they'll be a certain type of low-information ex-labour voter from, say, 20 years ago but they'll mainly be people who are non-voters in any real sense. The BULK of the UKIP vote, though, will be ex-tories, either from the last election or from the two or three before that, possibly with a gap in between.

    I don't see ANY circumstances in which the SNP would prop up the tories with the possible exception of full independence but then, even with THAT, the tories would have to forego any austerity in Scotland... can you imagine how THAT'S going to go down with the tory faithful south of the border? Not well, I'd say. I also don't think it's likely the SNP would go for it either because there's no WAY their supporters would accept any of the measures likely to come from it... effectively the same argument in reverse.

    So the most likely scenario, as you say, would be a minority Labour government BUT there's also still a question mark over the Liberals Democrats. Although they're vote is looking very low they've still got support in certain areas so the percentage means very little in their case. Even if they DO lose a large slice of their support, they could still have 30+ seats which, together with some of the other smaller parties, might be enough for us not to need the SNP because we can count on 6-7 votes from the other smaller parties.

    The other thing will be how much damage UKIP do to the tories. They don't have to win seats... they just have to deny the tories a win and let us, the liberals or whatever in.
     
  25. The Biscuitman

    The Biscuitman Member+

    Jul 4, 2007
    Club:
    Reading FC
    I think all eyes will be on the SNP and the DUP come 7th May as they will hold the balance of power in terms of forming coalitions with Labour and The Tories respectively.

    It will be a close run thing obviously but if I had to put money on it I would say it will be a Labour/SNP coalition. (Sticking with my prediction on my opening post on this thread)
     

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