Toughest Places to Play in MLS (Rank 'em)

And Troy Perkins' face.

 

This is going to make for some very boring games. Especially if they play mid day games.

 

Paging Scaryice....

Meanwhile, there are a couple of measurement problems that we should figure out.

A) Do we measure by wins? points? percentages? what exactly do we mean by hardest place to play? I think I would do it by avg. points taken out of the place.

B) Do we count playoffs? I would just because it is when everything is on the line and should be when home field advantage is at its highest.

C) Do we want to just look at the places and not the teams. i.e. control for the fact that some teams have sucked for the majority of thier existance? I would argue no. The places that you hear about as tough to play in are usually the combination of a regularly good team and another factor (cold, heat, fans). Phoenix can't be a fun place to play in, but you don't hear about the dreaded Phoenix Cardinals advantage in the early part of the NFL season.

 

truly, some of the win has to be accounted for by that natural phenom, known as "Crew Suck".

 

that was a wicked bounce.

 

The statistics (damn them!) would indicate otherwise:

1996-2004 (I need to update this)
League Average: 1.68 ppm at home, 0.99 ppm on the road.
Home Wins: 835 (OT: 35, SO: 81)
Away Wins: 488 (OT: 12, SO: 76
Tied Games: 171 (OT: 124)

Home Field Advantage - MLS 1996-2004
1. 2.09 - Miami (1.74ppm/home, 0.83ppm/away)
2. 2.01 - Kansas City (1.76, 0.88)
3. 1.96 - Colorado (1.69, 0.86)
4. 1.72 - DC United (1.78, 1.04)
5. 1.70 - Dallas (1.63, 0.96)
6. 1.68 - Chicago (2.00, 1.19)
7. 1.65 - Columbus (1.70, 1.03)
8. 1.62 - Los Angeles (1.99, 1.23)
9. 1.570 - San Jose (1.55, 0.99)
10. 1.566 - Tampa Bay (1.53, 0.98)
11. 1.40 - MetroStars (1.45, 1.04)
12. 1.38 - New England (1.43, 1.04)

In a related chart
1996-2004 MLS Percentage of Points won
1. 53.77 - Los Angeles - 143-96-35 (OT 9-6-25, SO 11-14)
2. 53.24 - Chicago - 105-74-32 (4-4-23, 5-6)
3. 46.84 - DC United - 130-113-31 (4-11-21, 18-13)
4. 45.50 - Columbus - 121-116-37 (4-6-24, 13-18)
5. 43.88 - Kansas City - 119-119-37 (2-4-29, 16-14)
6. 43.17 - Miami - 56-56-10 (1-1-10, 10-4)
7. 43.07 - Dallas - 119-128-27 (5-2-21, 15-13)
8. 42.46 - Colorado - 113-127-34 (5-3-23, 12-12)
9. 42.21 - San Jose - 116-121-37 (1-1-26, 19-20)
10. 41.89 - Tampa Bay - 83-98-6 (1-2-6, 10-17)
11. 41.48 - MetroStars - 113-137-24 (7-4-17, 11-9)
12. 37.94 - New England - 105-138-32 (4-3-23, 17-17)

 

I've attached a spreadsheet I created early last season. Folks can finish adding the rest of the data from last season or play around with it.

Note: BigSoccer doesn't allow .XLS attachments, so I renamed the file .ZIP. Just "save" the file and rename it with an .XLS extension. This is not a zipped or compressed file.

 

Plugging in last year's data:

Home Field Advantage - MLS 1996-2005
1. 9.00 - Salt Lake (0.63ppm/home, 0.13ppm/away)
2. 2.09 - Miami (1.74, 0.83)
3. 2.01 - Colorado (1.72, 0.86) (was 1.96)
4. 1.88 - Kansas City (1.73, 0.92) (was 2.01)
5. 1.69 - Los Angeles (2.00, 1.18) (was 1.62)
6. 1.68 - Dallas (1.65, 0.98) (was 1.70)
7. 1.67 - New England (1.52, 0.91) (was 1.38)
8. 1.63 - DC United (1.78, 1.09) (was 1.72)
9. 1.62 - Columbus (1.67, 1.03) (was 1.65)
10. 1.61 - Chicago (1.96, 1.22) (was 1.68)
11. 1.571 - Chivas USA (0.69, 0.44)
12. 1.566 - Tampa Bay (1.53, 0.98)
13. 1.49 - San Jose (1.61, 1.08) (was 1.57)
14. 1.37 - MetroStars (1.46, 1.07) (was 1.40)

Now, obviously, this is a relative chart. Most teams found Salt Lake City a wonderful place to visit last summer.

In absolute terms, here's the fewest points per match given up at home by team:

1. 0.693 - Los Angeles - (106 points in 153 matches)
2. 0.811 - Chicago (99/122)
3. 0.8816 - DC United (134/152)
4. 0.8824 - San Jose (135/153)
5. 0.887 - Miami (55/62)
6. 0.948 - Kansas City (145/153)
7. 0.980 - Columbus (150/153)
8. 1.000 - Colorado (153/153)
- 1.005 - League Average
9. 1.098 - Dallas (168/153)
10. 1.124 - New England (172/153)
11. 1.255 - Tampa Bay (118/94)
12. 1.294 - MetroStars (198/153)
13. 1.688 - Salt Lake (27/16)
14. 2.188 - Chivas USA (35/16)

 

The problem with drilling down too far with statistics and soccer is that the sample sizes are so small.

Dallas played, what, 14 games at Southlake?

And what of the differerent stadium configurations? Foxboro Stadium's soccer field became significantly smaller once the corner seats were put back in for the start of the NFL season. The MetroStars have played on more surfaces at Giants Stadium than I care to try and figure out. San Jose played a handful of games at Stanford.

How do we count the LA/Chivas games at the HDC (3 last season?)

At some point the discrete sample sizes just become too small.

----
However, some interesting things can be gleaned from the data. The MetroStars and Wizards have basically lived under similar conditions, yet the Wizards definitely do better at home whereas the MetroStars actually play as well on the road as they do at home. In fact, if the MetroStars home record were near the league average, their history would likely be far different than it is.

Everyone talks about San Jose's "perfect" home season last year, yet the team's historical home/away points per match differential - decreased. Why? Because the Quakes were very good away from home, too. And frankly, their "perfect" season included 7 ties.

Another thing to consider if you look through the historical data is that the Shootout era definitely changed the way points accrued. With shootout winners only getting 1 point, and the losers getting nothing.

The Overtime era, only had a small incremental effect as a large majority of games that went to overtime ended tied.

But then teams motivations, and the way they approached games and results differs between the three eras (shootout, overtime, current).

 

HDC has to be tough to play at. Now that Chivas USA are at least decent, it's going to be hard for visiting teams. LA are a good team also. Both sets of fans were brilliant last night.

 

Top 10 worst visiting team seasons 1996-2005 (points per match)
1. 0.250 - 1998 DC United/RFK Stadium (2-14, 1-5)
2. 0.286 - 2002 San Jose/Spartan Stadium (1-12-1)
3. 0.357 - 2002 Los Angeles/Rose Bowl (1-11-2)
T4. 0.438 - 1999 Dallas/Cotton Bowl (3-13, 1-1)
T4. 0.438 - 2000 Chicago/Soldier Field (2-13-1)
T4. 0.438 - 2005 San Jose/Spartan Stadium (0-9-7)
7. 0.467 - 2003 Chicago/Cardinal Stadium (1-10-4)
T8. 0.500 1997 Kansas City/Arrowhead Stadium (4-12, 2-4)
T8. 0.500 1999 Los Angeles/Rose Bowl (4-12, 2-2)
T10. 0.563 1996 Los Angeles/Rose Bowl (5-11, 3-1)
T10. 0.563 1997 DC United/RFK Stadium (5-11, 3-2)
T10. 0.563 1998 Chicago/Soldier Field (3-13, 0-0)
T10. 0.563 1999 San Jose/Spartan Stadium (3-13, 0-7)
T10. 0.563 2005 New England/Gillette Stadium (2-11-3)

Top 10 best visiting team seasons 1996-2005
1. 2.286 2001 Tampa Bay/Raymond James (10-2-2)
2. 2.188 2005 Chivas USA/Home Depot Center (11-3-2)
3. 2.063 1999 MetroStars/Giants Stadium (13-3, 3-1)
4. 1.857 2002 MetroStars/Giants Stadium (8-4-2)
5. 1.733 2003 Dallas/Cotton Bowl (8-5-2)
6. 1.692 2001 Colorado/Mile High Stadium (6-3-4)
7. 1.688 2006 Salt Lake/Rice-Eccles Stadium (8-5-3)
8. 1.625 1999 Tampa Bay/Raymond James (10-6, 2-1)
9. 1.563 2004 Columbus/Crew Stadium (8-7-1)
10. 1.500 1997 San Jose/Spartan Stadium (10-6, 3-2)
10. 1.500 1998 New England/Foxboro Stadium (10-6, 3-1)
10. 1.500 1998 Tampa Bay/Tampa Stadium (10-6, 3-1)
10. 1.500 1999 New England/Foxboro Stadium (10-6, 3-2)
10. 1.500 2000 DC United/RFK Stadium (7-6-3)
10. 1.500 2002 New England/CMGi Field (7-7-0)