Tokyo Olympics: USWNT vs Australia, July 27, pre/pbp/post

Sam Kerr is always a danger.

 

Although it's on the other hand quite established that she tends to not show up in big games (WWC 2019 Round of 16 game vs Norway; NWSL Championship match; UEFA Women's Champions' League final).

 

The last time this 2 played each other was in 2019. USWNT's defense was quite mediocre that Australia could have probably won it if not for Mallory Pugh's 2 goals in the second half. Now back to the present. Their defense is still mediocre (or even worst now based on their Sweden game) AND they don't have Mallory Pugh.

I'm scared.

 

Wouldn’t be good for the U.S. to draw and limp into the quarterfinals solely on the basis of goal differential. I don’t think they should hold anything back in this match.

 

I can't imagine that the U.S. will "hold anything back" against Australia. Despite outscoring New Zealand 6-1, the U.S. did NOT look impressive (in my view). I'd say they need a really strong showing to carry them into a far more difficult game in the quarterfinals.

 

She dit turn up yesterday, although not enough to carry her entire team.

 

just watched the Australia vs New Zealand game and I cannot see the USA not beating Australia. The whole thing looks like a slow motion game plus the NZ goalie was just weak. Be interesting to see who Vlad starts.

 

The thing worth knowing about Australia, is that Gustafsson tried to get their form topped to the knock-out rounds. So they played better against NZ than they did on their trip to Europe, better still against Sweden and he expect them to be even better against the US. So how they played against NZ may not give a complete picture.
Still I am pretty sure US will win.

 

of Australia? They gone downhill last few years. Germany recently debuted an barely 18 year old that went out hog wild on their same old Australian defense(Kennedy, Polkihorne, Williams) within minutes. If an inexperienced pup can do that much damage, thin what our wise old grandma's will do?

 

Kerr gonna eat up Abby.

 

Here is the line-up I think Vlatko Andonovski should start on Tuesday versus Australia:

------------------------------------Naeher-------------------------------


O’Hara-------------Sauerbrunn---------Davidson-------------Dunn


--------------------------------------Ertz---------------------------------


-------------------Lavelle------------------------Horan-----------------


Heath-----------------------------Press----------------------------Rapinoe


Bench:

1. Adrianna Franch
2. Abby Dahlkemper
3. Emily Sonnett
4. Sam Mewis
5. Carli Lloyd
6. Alex Morgan
7. Catarina Marcario or Kristie Mewis


1. Center-Backs

Against New Zealand, Becky Sauerbrunn didn’t play. She was rested for the Australia match. So, she will be fresh against Australia. In contrast, Abby Dahlkemper played 90 minutes against New Zealand. And this is after having played 90 minutes against Sweden just three days earlier. Also, Sauerbrunn is a captain, has a very good positional sense and rarely makes important mistakes. So, I think Sauerbrunn should start against Australia.

But what about the other center-back? Tierna Davidson played well against New Zealand. Her passing and positioning were good. She also seemed composed. Meanwhile, Dahlkemper—although I really like her as a player—was partly at fault on New Zealand’s goal. She got beaten and then fell down. Also, in the US’s match against Sweden, Dahlkemper was arguably at fault on some of Sweden’s goals. I want her to get her confidence back. After the New Zealand goal, she was hanging her head and looked discouraged. But I think this game against Australia is too important to focus on getting her confidence back. So far, Davidson has been playing better in this tournament. So, I’d start Davidson against New Zealand.


2. Lindsey Horan or Sam Mewis?

Lindsey Horan played 90 minutes against Sweden and 84 minutes against New Zealand. And Sam Mewis played only 22 against New Zealand and 45 against Sweden. So, Mewis may well be fresher against Australia than Horan. But Horan played well against New Zealand and had the important second goal. So, I’d start Horan against Australia.


3. Tobin Heath

Tobin Heath played well against New Zealand. She had an excellent assist on the first goal and held and passed the ball well. New Zealand’s physicality didn’t trouble her. She also seemed more accurate with her passing in the first two games than Mewis. Also, she is creative and skillful and can open possibilities for herself and others. She seemed tired and physically weak against Sweden but strong and innovative against New Zealand. So, I’d start Heath at right wing.


4. Megan Rapinoe

Against New Zealand, Megan Rapinoe sometimes held the ball a little too long on the US’s left flank. At times, she probably should have crossed it earlier. Or, if she was going to hold it that long, it was important for her to beat the player. Also, her crosses and passes into the box weren’t as accurate as they usually are. Sometimes she should lift her head up and take a peek of what’s going on in the box before she releases the ball. She might see a teammate’s run.

But she did hold the ball well against New Zealand. And she seemed more confident with the ball at her feet and more proactive than Christen Press when the latter played left wing against Sweden. So, I’d start Rapinoe at left wing on Tuesday.


5. Center Forward

This is the hardest one for me. Should Andonovksi start Carli Lloyd or Press at center forward? Carli Lloyd pressed well against New Zealand, played good defense and was strong-willed. She wouldn’t be denied. But she’s also 39 years old, she didn’t score against New Zealand, and sometimes she looked a step slow. In addition, she played 74 minutes against New Zealand, after playing 45 minutes against Sweden. And the game against Australia is only three days after the game against New Zealand.

Further, Press scored a very nice goal against Australia and had a nice assist to Alex Morgan. And, against New Zealand, Press played only 22 minutes. So, she should be fresher against Australia than Lloyd.

But Lloyd rarely succumbs to the pressure. Sometimes the pressure can cause Press to withdraw a bit. So, should Lloyd start? I’d see how they seem in training. But I’d be inclined to start Press. Her speed, relative youth and quality of her play versus New Zealand would be key factors. In addition, it would be tough for Lloyd to be at the top of her game after playing 74 minutes versus New Zealand just three days before the match against Australia.

But I could also be convinced to go the other way. Lloyd has a way of rising to the occasion and being resilient and resolute. And if Lloyd does not start, she should be an option for the second half.


6. Bench

During the telecast of the US-New Zealand game, Julie Foudy said that Lynn Williams had sustained a leg injury, which may have been a factor in Williams not dressing for the New Zealand match. Foudy suggested that Williams could be healthy for the Australia match. If Williams is healthy for the match, should she be on the bench instead of Catarina Marcario or Kristie Mewis? I’m open to it. Williams is the second all-time leading scorer in NWSL history, is tied for first in scoring in the NWSL this season (with 5 goals) and has scored 11 goals in 37 games for the US women’s national team, a rate of 1 goal every 3.3 games, not bad for a player who has generally played right wing for the US. Williams also is 28 years old (young for an attacking player on this US team), fast and physically strong. Finally, for the US, she has scored 2 goals in 2021 (here) and scored 3 goals and provided 6 assists in 2020 (here).

Moreover, an 18-player gameday roster with Williams on it and without Marcario or Kristie Mewis on it still has reasonable cover at central midfield. Sam Mewis can play all three central midfield positions. For instance, if Julie Ertz needs to be taken out, Horan can play defensive-midfield, with Sam Mewis as one of the attacking center-mids. And, in a pinch, Tobin Heath or Carli Lloyd can play attacking center-mid.

However, for it to be reasonable for Andonovsky to have Williams on the 18-player roster for Australia, Williams would have to show him that she’s totally healthy. And even if she does show him this, perhaps Andonovsky should have Marcario or Kristie Mewis on the gameday roster instead. For one thing, I thought Marcario played well against New Zealand in her short time on the field. She passed the ball well.

In addition, if Marcario and Kristie Mewis are not on the gameday roster, the US would have only one obvious player to back up the three central midfielders, namely Sam Mewis. Although Lloyd and especially Heath can play attacking center-mid in a pinch, I can see how Andonovksy might be hesitant to have neither Kristi Mewis nor Marcario on the bench. Having only one clear option (Sam Mewis) on the bench to provide cover for three positions is a bit of a risk, especially with Julie Ertz’s knee being an issue. In contrast, without Williams on the gameday roster, the US still has solid cover at right wing (the position Williams generally has played for the US). Both Heath and Press are good at right wing.


7. Australia

Australia is a good team. They pass the ball well, play quickly, and are strong and skillful. Moreover, their number 10, Emily van Egmond, who plays central midfield for Australia and plays for West Ham United, has a good touch and makes good decisions with the ball.

There is a good chance that Australia will start against the US in a 3-4-2-1 formation. They've started in that formation in their last four games. Here’s a link to the way Australia set up against Sweden:

https://us.women.soccerway.com/matches/2021/07/24/world/olympics-women/sweden/australia/3497375/

And here’s how they set up against New Zealand:

https://us.women.soccerway.com/matc...olympics-women/australia/new-zealand/3497374/

And here’s how they set up in a friendly against Japan only July 14:

https://us.women.soccerway.com/matches/2021/07/14/world/friendly-women/japan/australia/3524439/

The 3-4-2-1 is a popular formation in men’s European club soccer. For example, in the final match of the Men’s European Champions League, Chelsea started in the formation against Manchester City, and Chelsea won the match.

An advantage of the 3-4-2-1 is that it often results in a team having six players in midfield, where games are often won and lost. However, a disadvantage of the formation is that the backline can be overrun. The three backs can be exploited. They often don’t have the numbers. Moreover, against Sweden, Australia’s center-back Claire Polkinghorn seemed a bit slow and clumsy.

When playing the 3-4-2-1, one way to compensate for having only three pure defenders is to play your wingbacks deep. But that means that you often are left with only four players in midfield, so you can be outnumbered by a team that plays five in midfield, which the US essentially does with the modern 4-3-3/4-1-4-1. The US should try to keep the ball against Australia.

In the attack, Australia’s Sam Kerr is obviously very good. She scored two goals—both on headers—against Sweden. Moreover, she’s the all-time leading scorer in NWSL history, and, in the 2020-1 English Women’s Super League season, she scored 21 goals in 22 appearances for Chelsea, the team that finished first in the league. Kerr is fast, strong, explosive, good in the air and can dribble fast with the ball under control. In addition, on crosses, she is good at getting in between the two center-backs. This is how she scored both goals against Sweden. Here's a link to an article that has videos of all the goals in the Sweden-Australia match:

https://www.managingmadrid.com/2021...-appearance-in-swedens-4-2-win-over-australia

The US center-backs will have to be aware of where Kerr is. On crosses, it’s important that she be marked closely -- touch tight. Moreover, perhaps sometimes the US defender closer to the Australian crosser of the ball should look over her back shoulder in order to locate Kerr, so that Kerr doesn’t get separation from her.

Although Tierna Davidson is reasonably fast, I don’t think either of the US center-backs is a speed merchant. So, the US backline is going to have to play smart against Kerr. Keep her in front of them. Perhaps on occasion, they also should step up and trap her offside. But they should be careful. She’s good at timing her runs to beat an offside trap.

 

#whoisvlad

 

Given how poor the US backline have been playing so far, the frontline will really need to step up their offense to outscore Kerr.

 

...as they were saying in Barcelona, before the WCL final. In the end, outscoring 0 goals would have revealed quite easy.

I agree that US backline has been a mess so far, but, on the other hand, it's not a given that Kerr will show up for the big match.

 

edcrocker, really good analysis. One question I have is about the pairing of Davidson and Sauerbrunn, the question being whether it would work b because both ordinarily play as the left center back. If both play, my guess is that Becky would play the right side position.

The other question I have is regarding Horan. She works really hard and is resilient, but I am wondering if she needs some rest, particularly looking forward to knock-out stage games. I am a big Horan fan, but even for her it seems like a lot.

 

Thanks EdCrocker for that dissertation on who, why,where and how.
I agree with your assessment but I'd like to see the Mewii and then bring on Rose later( IF we need her)

ПУСТОВОЙТОВА ????
What a name !!!


I'll stay up for this one tonight

 

I really think that Horan should start on the bench. Her attributes can be best used at this time not in her regular midfield position but to sub in and play at a traditional center forward position.

I know we do not usually use a traditional center forward that receives the ball and holds it to allow the remainder of the team to get up field and then distributes but we may need such if we are tied or behind in a match or are being pressed and need most players to play defensively. In that circumstance a target forward that can hold the ball and is a good/great passer is a real advantage.

She also then would naturally be available for headers etc. if and when the US gets forward.

But that kind of flies in the face of the constant movement that the US thrives on as a traditional center forward spends a lot of time waiting.

But Andonovski will not even consider that as he would see it as taking a valuable player out of the midfield but we have plenty of mids and the number of players that can hold the ball and score with their heads is pretty small. It also would allow most/all of our best ball handlers to be on the field at the same time.

But that is an idea, like moving Williams back into defense, that is probably bad and, even if good, requires imagination and willingness to experiment a bit inside a tournament. The USWNT, their coach and most of the players and US Soccer lacks much of both of those qualities.

I just throw it out as an idea that might be considered. I know it has been discussed before but when it was discussed the US had not recently been beaten badly.

Now I don my body armor and await, with great anticipation, the shots that are sure to come.

 

It's Tuesday in Japan folks! Okay the middle of the night but I can hardly wait for this 3rd group match. Sam Kerr is a beast and I'm pretty sure she's going to score against us depending on how well our defense decides to play. That's how top class she is. We have given up more goals in the last couple of games than like ever in the last several months with Vlatko.

We need to start scoring more goals. Period. Because everybody knows if Sam Kerr is on her game and she probably will be against the US, she's going to get at least one or two goals.

Alex Morgan will likely start up top again along with Tobin Heath and Press.

 

Actually, FanofFutbol, in one of the Mexico games -- I think the second one -- they did add Horan as an additional forward at the beginning of the game and scored almost immediately. So for this game, if she needs rest, what you suggest would be a good option.

 

Thanks for the nice words. I really appreciate it. And thanks for the really good questions, as well.


1. Center-Backs

According to my research, Becky Sauerbrunn and Tierna Davidson have played center-back next to each other only on two occasions, namely in the US’s 1-1 draw with Sweden in a friendly on April 10, 2021 and in the US’s 6-0 win against Argentina in the SheBelieves Cup in February of 2021. I didn’t watch the US-Argentina game. Although I did watch some of the US-Sweden friendly in April, I didn’t focus on Sauerbrunn and Davidson and don’t remember how they played together. However, I did record some of the game. I might try to watch it.

Here is a link to soccerway.com’s presentation of the US’s starting line-up in the Sweden draw:

https://us.women.soccerway.com/matches/2021/04/10/world/friendly-women/sweden/united-states/3471577/

And here is soccerway.com’s presentation of the US’s starting line-up in the 6-0 win against Argentina:

https://us.women.soccerway.com/matc...believes-cup/united-states/argentina/3442213/

So, Sauerbrunn and Davidson do have some experience playing center-back next to each other. But not much experience. If this were a must-win game for the US, I would start Sauerbrunn and Dahlkemper as the two center-backs. Cpthomas, like you, I’m uneasy about the lack of experience Davidson and Sauerbrunn have playing together.

However, my understanding is that even if the US loses to Australia, they still probably will advance to the knockout round. My understanding is that, in order for the US not to advance, China would have to defeat Holland and/or Zambia would have to defeat Brazil. Here are links to two articles on this issue, one by Soccer America’s Paul Kennedy, the other by Sports Illustrated’s Avi Creditor:

https://www.socceramerica.com/publi...aign=25835&hashid=_gtI6vkpqMTEE-n2lzMRV4g2kbs

https://www.si.com/olympics/2021/07/26/uswnt-olympics-bracket-scenarios-australia-group-finale

Moreover, the Wikipedia article on 2021 Olympic women’s soccer does a good job of laying out the different groups. Here’s a link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics_–_Women's_tournament

The relevant part starts about halfway down the page.

So, maybe Andonovski should start Sauerbrunn and Davidson as the two center-backs against Australia to get them some more experience playing together and to get Davidson prepared for the knockout round. And, so far, Davidson has played better in this tournament than Dahlkemper

By the same token, it’s not impossible that China could beat Holland and/or that Zambia could beat Brazil. Moreover, for confidence and morale, it’s important that the US play well and win against Australia.

I’m struggling to make a decision here. My feelings right now say start Davidson. Get her some experience with Sauerbrunn, and she’s played well in this tournament so far. And I’d say Davidson starting next to Sauerbrunn would give the US about as good a chance of beating Australia as Dahlkemper starting next to Sauerbrunn.

One thing to consider is that Sam Kerr is fast and has excellent acceleration. Who is faster and has better acceleration: Davidson or Dahlkemper? I don’t know the answer to that. If one is faster than the other, that should weigh in favor of starting the one over the other. But it certainly should be the only—or most important—consideration.

One factor that should weigh in favor of starting Davidson against Australia is that Dahlkemper played 90 minutes against both Sweden and New Zealand, whereas Davidson -- while having played 90 minutes against New Zealand -- played only 10 minutes against Sweden. However, Davidson did play the full 90 against New Zealand, so she is unlikely to be fully fresh for Australia.

Finally, I don’t think the fact that both Sauerbrunn and Davidson usually play left center-back is grounds for thinking that they would not play well next to each other at center-back versus Australia tomorrow. In my experience, it’s not that hard for an elite professional player who usually plays left center-back to play well at right center-back, especially someone as cerebral and thoughtful as Sauerbrunn.


2. Horan or Mewis?

Boy, this is a hard one. Again, if it were a must-win game, I would start Horan. She has played better this tournament than Mewis. But it’s not exactly a must-win game. The US could lose this game and still probably advance to the knockout round. And, as you said, Horan has played a lot of minutes in this tournament; so, if she starts against Australia and the US advances to the knockout round, she could be tired in the quarterfinals, which could be against Holland, one of the best teams in the world.

But my feelings say start Horan. She’s played well this tournament. And it’s important for the US to play well and win against Australia. And she’s durable and has good strength and stamina. However, if the US is leading at half, then perhaps Andonovksi should replace Horan with Sam Mewis early in the second half.


3. Lloyd or Press?

I watched again the second half of the US game against New Zealand. It’s now even harder for me to decide whether Andonovski should start Carli Lloyd or Christen Press at center forward against Australia. Lloyd provides good defensive pressure and physicality. She also sets a tone of assertiveness for the whole team. In comparison, Press is more of a finesse player. And how would the pressure of the game affect Press? Sometimes she rises to the occasion, as she did against England in the 2019 World Cup, when she scored the first goal of the match. But sometimes she wilts a bit, as I seem to remember her doing against Sweden in the 2015 Women’s World Cup.

Moreover, I would like to rest Lloyd for the knockout round, which the US probably will qualify for. I guess I would start Press and bring Lloyd into the game in the second half if the US needs a spark. But I could go either way on this.


4. Lynn Williams or Alex Morgan?

If Lynn Williams is healthy for the Australia match, should Andonovski have her on the bench instead of Alex Morgan? It’s something to consider. Williams’ relative youth (28 years old), speed, and strength could help the US, both against Australia and, if the US advances to the knockout round, in the knockout round itself.

But how would it affect Morgan not to dress for the Australia match? And is Williams ready for prime time?


5. Good article on Rose Lavelle

Finally, here is a link to a really good article by ESPN’s Elizabeth Merrill on Rose Lavelle:

https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/31828833/uswnt-rose-lavelle-emerges-reluctant-star

 

I’m not feeling good about this game.

Someone prove me wrong please.

 

​

10 hours kiddos. 4:00 a.m. ET, 3:00 a.m. CT, 1:00 a.m. McSkillzT. The USWNT proves your Parents wrong because there is indeed something good that happens after midnight. Replay is on the USA Network at 10:00 a.m. ET, 9:00 CT a.m. (I’d love if someone confirms that)

• Afternoon Nap - √ Have I ever extolled the greatest of the afternoon nap?
• Coffee Brewing - √
• Mewii Beer Chilling - √

 

Wow... that's a really long and excellent article about Rose.

Thanks for posting the link!