That's still on the club,to a degree.. Why not get the kids a block of hotel rooms and feed them to help them isolate a couple weeks before the tournament?
The MLSPA stringly fought for a minimum amount of time for the quarantine, either in Disney or at home. They would have had to try and cut two weeks out of a four week tournament. Players across all sports don't seem to want to agree to even being the level of responsible most people are right now. Which is kind of crazy given the lung and heart damage being found in survivors.
I have to say, if there's one positive in having so many players go down with so many different injuries this past year, it's that if there was ever a year to get injured for Weah, it was '19-'20, just a bit unfortunate he got injured for the first time in '19 rather than in '20, but regardless, having a season shut down meant that basically he lost very, very little time with the surgery because the entire league as a whole put a wrap on the season what was it, like 4-6 weeks later. Normally he would have lost like 5+ months of training w/the most recent thing, and instead it was just about 1.5. So while I'm frustrated too, at the end of the day, he lost basically about 55-60% of his first season with Lille, and then the season itself was done. Chief concern now is that the injury doesn't have long term effects w/him (sounds like it could), but having missed basically the entire past year, well, like I said, if that was going to happen in any season, let it be in the shortest season since WWII days. Fate picked the right year for him to miss time, hopefully he comes back at 100%.
If the excuse is that their youngsters have to live with family members who are more susceptible to community spread due to work, then I don't see why FCD couldn't have provided them with rooms and food for a while. IF they offered and were shot down by the players, then that's a different story.
I'll also add some agreement w/the general sentiment that thus far, when I've watched him (I missed his Celtic time other than clips here and there, and btw, isn't it a "THANK GOD" scenario that he told Celtic to stuff it, and played in the U20 WC instead of doing some last tinkering with their -------- down the stretch in '19 so he could play in that cup, and that he chose to play in that instead of the total ---- show that was Berhalter's summer of '19 tour of the bowel's of hell?) he's been a guy who has more magical moments, than consistent games. That being said, he's had quite a few fantastic games and magical moments. He was terrific against Ecuador, I think Nigeria too, and of course the hat trick against Paraguay two years earlier. He also looked special quite a bit w/Celtic in their rare instances in which he got some time. Definitely looks like a player that could add a ton as a winger, and especially as a Forward too. He fits beautifully on the opposite side of Pulisic, making both wings too scary to keep your eye off of, and if it's true that Pulisic has gotten outrageously good at essentially deeking (to use a hockey term) defenders w/his runs even to the extent of tweaking them just as a fullback confirms and moves his head, man, they could be beyond lethal together.
What I recall as well, when you have a talented group, it usually peaks at about 3 guys, getting more than that is something that I can't even remember happening other than '99.
But that's what it is, for any national team. If you dig into U20's, no matter how good, or how poor, you consistently see the success rates/hit rates of players in the 23, especially field players, is basically about 10-20%. Forgive me w/not carrying references and links, but I do remember somebody showing like decades of it, and it was consistently, 0-1 in horrible years, 2-3 in typical years, and in the very rare year, 3+. Even w/Golden Generations, you're not pushing through double digit or even high single digit U17's, the best years on quality, say top 40-50 sides, still typically only graduate at most, like 5-7 guys, maybe, and that's exceptionally rare. You did your job well if you hit with 3+ of them that are senior regulars, you did a superlative job if you have more than 3.
I have no idea what the offer was exactly, but I did read that MLS wanted everyone to come to the bubble early to quarantine long before games so this could play out. The MLSPA refused because people did not want to be away from their families that long.
And it's not just the US. Mexico won the 2011 U17 World Cup (granted, on home soil, but still). Made up of 17 and 16 years, that team should have been the core of the 2014 World Cup team and the 2018 World Cup team. I don't believe a single member of that 2011 U17 World Cup squad made EITHER of those squads.
I'm responding to @grandinquisitor28 as well with this. Realistically, a lot of kids either weren't discovered or develop later than 17 plus there are only 23 spots for the full USMNT while there are 23 spots every two years for the U17 team. I don't think anyone expects half the team to progress to that level but the better teams have 6+ guys you can look at and say they have a chance. Injuries, development, kids that peaked too early are going to knock some off for sure. I look at the teams as a marker for the strength of the age groups they represent. Sure, sometimes a Dempsey pops up or you get an unexpected dual national but it's not a coincidence that our lost generation had horrible results at the U17 World Cups. 2015 had mixed results but at least we were in a tough group and I thought we played okay. It was better than the days of losing to Uzbekistan and not qualifying. 2017 was the best we had looked in a full generation. 2019 was another tough group but we looked bad and surprisingly unathletic. I look at the 2017 team and see the following guys that have a chance to be top-level players: Weah Sargent Dest Gloster Durkin Akinola Sands Booth That's pretty rare for a group. The question is was 2017 the outlier or a sign of things to come? I believe it is a sign of things to come but 2019's group is not on that level. The DA in general and specifically some MLS and USL academies have done a really nice job of expanding the pool of players from which we are drawing. That's really helped the depth of these and the coming age groups. More chances for late bloomers, etc.
I'm not sure I see the point here. I might be missing something? U17 team success doesn't correlate all that well to later senior team success except at the extremes. Don't qualify through CONCACAF? Okay, you have very little talent. Be a U17 success because your country is a perennial contender? Sure. But even winning it hasn't been a great predictor of success. The players selected for the U17 team are rarely the best players 3-5 years later. The attrition rate is massive in all sports at this age. This isn't just a matter of Dempsey or someone blossoming in their 20s, there's a lot of players that blossom at 18. Again, there's a lot of very best who show early, but there's just a lot of development It's not that I don't think that a U17 roster or results are completely meaningless. I just think that people put more emphasis on them than is warranted. If nothing else, the fact that half your age group is a year younger when years mean a TON is enough to point out where evaluation, especially on results, is challenging. -------------------- 2017 was very strong. I wouldn't include a number of those guys in the top level players bucket, but getting Weah, Sargent and Dest plus a couple of lottery tickets is a really nice haul. (And I might add Vassilev). The 2019 didn't perform nearly as well, but I'd say Reyna (Dest) and Pepi (Sargent) are in the class above, and many would put Kobe Hernandez Foster in that group. I'd say 2019 is a slight step down. But then you have Las and Odunze in goal, and the former definitely has the hype to rank. (I have no good opinions on youth goalkeepers). 2019 has a bunch of lottery tickets to me, though, as well. I consider youth goalkeepers lottery tickets, plus Scally, Bello, Busio, and Kayo. I think Leyva and AOC are just as interesting as Durkin, if not moreso. The rest? Eh. The midfield was either young or slow or both and that killed the team, but there's high end talent there. Of course, and this is part of my point, is that 2019 inherently has more lottery tickets because 2017 has had some of theirs already not come true or at least lose luster.
I don't think we disagree actually. 2017 was better than 2019 but it's still hard to predict what will happen. I think Reyna, Pepi (who I still don't rate with Weah and Sargent), and KHF are the only three guys from the 2019 squad who I'd put above anyone but maybe Durkin from the 2017 group. Not to say Bello, Scally, Las, etc can't become something, but I don't think we had the same top end or depth. I did almost include Vassilev on my 2017 list but he is a bit more mysterious so still in the Bello/Scally tier for me. My main point is that I do believe youth results matter to a degree in that it shows the strength of entire ages. I hope and believe we will see more teams like 2017 in the future and more age groups like the 00's. 2019 was a rather unathletic bunch that only looked decent against another team not known for athleticism and even that was a boring 0-0 draw where we were outshot and outpossessed.
I'm just gonna say again that I disagree. I've never seen reference to any hit rate like that with any national teams. I think the sampling data isn't going to be the greatest for a variety of reasons: 1.) Historically the vast bulk of European teams other than like Spain, didn't take the tournament seriously until the past decade from what I can recall. 2.) These teams are always going to represent a brief moment in time & rosters can be impacted by injuries, poor selection and bad coaching (and we've had all of the above). 3.) How effective are we at even spotting, and evaluating talent to begin with (I refuse to believe the 1990-1995 generational drought was because we started to develop the least talented generation of soccer players exactly when the sport was peaking historically 2002 and beyond) in the country. It makes zero sense (other than in viniculture analogies) that we could produce better crops of youth talent when the entire country ---- all over the sport, and gave it literally zero media attention for decades w/players born in that 1965-1977 window and even to a degree with players born circa 1978-1983 and beyond. I'm sorry but the environment for kids to pick and pursue soccer and actually have it make any sense at all for them was 10,000x better for kids 10 and under in the late nineties and aughts and especially exactly when the drought hit than it ever was for 10 year olds in the sixties, seventies, or eighties (when I look back, other than indoor, there wasn't any soccer on tv to speak of other than on Spanish and Italian speaking channels, and even major tournaments were barely covered (I remember vague attention for '86 when I was 11 and finally regular attention for '90 when we finally qualified when I was 15). I know I'm not arguing here, I'm just mentioning that difficulties in identifying and spotting talent can be a bit of reason for why sampling data isn't entirely reliable. Did the country produce virtually no soccer talent circa 1990-1995 because of randomness, or because we did a really bad job of identifying talent (I 1000% feel it's the latter, w/only a small portion of the explanation being randomness). Anyway, in looking at the data, what you're imagining just doesn't really happen. '17's just don't produce 6-9 future starters in strong or golden generation years, that just doesn't happen. I wish I could track down the post where someone rolled through our own history, but I've also read posts where people ran down some other teams track record and the hit rate is just way lower than you expect. The best analogy I could make is that U17 Prospect hit rates are far closer in analogy to Baseball draftee hit rates post round 1 (and even round 1) then they are to NFL draft player hit rates (hockey is kinda similar too). I don't think this should be surprising either because if you look at sports, the leagues that draft high school age talent, versus the leagues that draft players 20 and above or 19 and above (NFL and NBA) have much lower hit rates across the board and especially in round 1. The NFL features a ton of busts, no doubt, but typically the hit rate for round 1 guys is around 50% in terms of usable talent (higher for certain positions like OL, lower for other positions like OL), ditto the NBA, but if you look at baseball or hockey, they're picking 18 year olds in the case of hockey, and can choose high schoolers, or college players in baseball and the hit rates sink far lower in both of those leagues. I think the difference between athletes whose tape and analytical data is limited to age 17 or 18 and younger, versus players where you have tape and analytical data from age 18-21 makes an enormous difference. A lot of player, A LOT, fall through the cracks between age 17 and age 21, a ton of them and for a variety of reasons. Some guys had size/speed/athleticism advantages due to the Gladwell B-Day thing/maturing earlier and as other players catch up the advantage disappears and so do they, sometimes it's mental make up, sometimes it's injuries, sometimes its family challenges, maturity issues, dedication etc. W/regards to all of these issues, you just know WAY MORE about how they will impact the players for the good or for the bad based on how their careers evolve from age 17 to 21, then you do based on data streams that end w/the 17 WC. That's why theres just way more clarity with players as they exit their 20's. It's a fact that five years ago Haji Wright was at least as hot a prospect as Pulisic, if not moreso, but somehow Dortmund just by luck, or by insight, knew the better bet was Pulisic, and put their eggs in that basket. Wright may turn it around, but at this point, Pulisic is a hit, and Wright is a miss. You just never know.
National Team Regulars in bold, and I'll put in italics guys who at least logged a cap or two or more but weren't regulars (in as much as I can with my fuzzy memory (mine starts w/the USMNT circa 1990): 1985: I recognizes 0 of our players. Zero. We went 1-2, out in group stage. 0 Players 1987: Now we're talking (1-0-2, dead in the group stage) 1 Player Troy Dayak: I remember this name, not sure why. Chad Deering: He had a career. Steve Snow: His star burned bright, and then flashed out of existence too soon. 1989: 1-1-1 dead in the group stage. 1 Player Claudio Reyna: Goes without saying. AJ Wood: Only relevant in MLS. 1991: 3-0 in group stage, crashed out on PK's in the QF's. 0 Players I recognize the names of ZERO players. 1993: 1-1-1 in group stage, crashed out 3-0 in the QF's. 1 Player John O'Brien is the only guy I recognize 1995: 0-3 out in group stage. 2 Players Howard and Rimando are the only guys I've ever heard of. 1997: 1-2 out in the group stage. 2 Players Danny Califf and Tyler Twellman are the only guys I remember. 1999: 2-1-0 and Semifinalist. 4 Players: I recognize these first four names, I think Countess and Thompson once were thought as quality players. Countess Akwari Abe Thompson Cronin Legit: Beasley Donovan Gooch Beckerman 2001: 0-3 1 Player Jordan Stone-I just remember him from his goofy hair in the predraft prep for MLS. The Below: Justin Mapp Mike Magee Quaranta Eddie Johnson Chad Marshall All of those guys except I think Magee were all either occasional or long term relevant for the senior team, and Mapp was one of those classic, Great "lost tracks" from a CD type player who was expected to be something (much like Gaven later) and it just didn't happen. 2003: 2-1 and out in the QF's to Brazil 1 Player, maybe Spector Gaven Adu-How do we classify him? Szetela Westburg This was an exciting team with four legit Senior team prospects, and none of them ended up hitting in any kind of long term sense. 2005: 2-1-0 out in the QF's to the Netherlands 3 Players, we blew it with Subotic Altidore Gonzalez Subotic 2007: 1 win 2 losses (horror show loss to Tajikistan) out in the R16's. 1 regular, maybe (Shea had a moment for a while) Brek Shea Greg Garza 2009: 2 wins, 1 loss, out in the R16's. 1 Player Juan Agudelo Perry Kitchen 2011: 1-1-1 and out in the R16's. 2 Players Paul Arriola Kellyn Acosta 2013: Failed to Qualify 0 Players in reality, but 1 according to Berhalter Shaq Moore Corey Baird Justin Glad Mukwelle Akale Rubio Rubin 2015: 2 Players Christian Pulisic Tyler Adams Worth noting that like the '13 group, theres a bunch of kids still toiling away, trying to make it, not proven to be below the level, but not having proven they're good enough either. 2017: 2-1, Quarterfinalist, lost to England. 3 Players Tim Weah, Josh Sargent, Sergino Dest In the fullness of time, it could produce as many as 7, inexplicably Llanez was left at home, and guys like Gloster, Sands, Durkin, Akinola all have a reasonable chance and the book isn't closed on Carleton, Goslin, Acosta, Reynolds and the like. If you look through, going back to '85, it percolates back and forth between typically 0 and 3 graduates, w/only '99 sticking out as an aberration (I do suspect '17 will be another one in the fullness of time). This is typical w/other countries from what I've seen as well, although part of the reason almost certainly is that it has been and will always be more difficult for a player to break through as a regular at a Germany, or a France or a Brazil than it will be for a player to break through with the US, or South Korea or an Algeria.
That's a good post. I didn't have time to respond earlier but I was going to say that I don't think we actually disagree on that much. I forget what number I used earlier but if you get 6+ guys who look the part and even play one minute for the full USMNT from a U17 group, that's a good start to a golden generation. I do think you can spot a trend where if a U17 team didn't have much success (tournament expanded, group draws matter, etc) or many players that made it to being USMNT regulars, the age group in general tended to be pretty weak. The 17' group appears special, the 99' group was special. The thing about the 99 group was they were followed by the 01', 03', and 05' groups who were all decent as well. That stretch from 07'-13' was brutal which is pretty much in line with the lost generation that led to the core of our current team being barely old enough to drink. The 15' group still has some guys that we can't close the door on just yet and produced possibly our two best players. Too early to say how the 19' group will fare but I think we'd all be happy if we pull 2-3 national team regulars out of it. And then you add in the off year guys who don't play up and it makes it even harder to truly project. This whole discussion started with me saying Pepi wasn't as good as Weah and Sargent as a 9 and morphed into me saying I was overall disappointed in the 19' squad. I would also like to add about player selection from the lost generation because I had the luxury/horror of seeing a lot of that first hand. You are absolutely correct and USSF got very lazy and resorted to only looking for kids that came from the right places and tended to just keep picking from the same small pool of players. It led to a lot of underserved areas and kids that just weren't getting opportunities because very few MLS teams had legit academies and many of the ones that did charged all but the most elite. I think the issues of that time period are about 50% remedied. There are still some "dead zones" in the country but it's not as big of a problem as it used to be. Pay to play is still a problem but less so if you're in a major market and you're elite. This discussion is very interesting to me. It would be better to compare the U20's but many of the best players aren't playing with the YNT by then. I can let this go back to Weah but would absolutely enjoy getting further into it on a proper forum for it at some point.
I don't mind the '19 U17's as much as others because we can already see some guys going overseas and other guys getting interest and most of all because I honestly don't know what the ---- happened. Credit to 97531 because he called the crash and burn months in advanced. While he liked a lot of players I believe (if I'm remembering right) he had little faith in the coach, and was really concerned w/the selection (he often is, as we all often are) and the Xi's. I look at that team and they outplayed the hell out of a Mexico side that went on to the U17 Tourney Final in the spring of '19 for about 75 minutes, hit the post on potential winners like 3 or 5 times, and easily should have won the Qualifying Final before losing in extra time, and then like six months later they're just a straight up dumpster fire at the tournament itself in 2 of the 3 games. I don't know what that it all meant, but I'm not at all soured on the players, I think it very well could have just been a bad tournament for a reasonably good class. I don't think they're the same quality as '15 and '17, but in fairness, I think the '15 and '17 classes were probably 2 of the 3 best since '99, I have a feeling in the fullness of time '19 will be a solid class, maybe not a great one, but not a bad one either. Time will tell, I'm just skeptical that they suck. The bulk of the '07-'13 classes which formed the bulk of the '90-'95 classes gave off a "bad crop" scent from the jump, they always seemed kind of poor. The '19 class features a lot of guys that people were more or less excited about to varying degrees throughout much of '18 and '19 and I remain hopeful for the group. GK: Las and Odunze Plenty of people have been excited about both of these keepers. D: KHF, Bello The heat's gone off Bello a bit, but KHF has just moved abroad, and Bello remains a potential prospect. MF: Leyva, Busio, Kayo, Kayo's just moved to Europe, Busio's drawn Euro interest, and Leyva had an awful tourney but remains a good prospect. F: Pepi, AOC, Reyna 1 of the 3 has already hit, if any more hit it's just gravy, and Pepi and AOC aren't guys that I'm like, "no chance" like I was w/say all of the forwards at the '15 U20 WC other than Rubin (who also has crashed and burned). Pepi and AOC still have a decent shot as well. If I were to guess, in terms of field players I get the sense that we'll get 3 out of the group with a chance for 4 which makes it better than nearly all of the other tournaments and that's what matters (if it happens), add keepers and it could be 4 or 5 too.
The 2019's aren't devoid of talent. It was in the wrong places and wrong ages to win. They were largely devoid of talent up the spine outside of goalkeeper. Central defense and midfield were not strong. Goalkeeper and fullback are excellent. Scally, KHF (who played CB) and Bello vary in everything but potential, where they are all high potential. I'm not a huge AOC fan but Reyna and Pepi are a legit attacking crew, but Pepi is young. They started a LB at CB and the midfield was bad. Kayo, Busio and Leyva have some potential, but Kayo is raw, Busio is more of a second striker on a team that doesn't play one, and Leyva was very young. I don't care how good your outside players are, lacking talent in the middle is a disaster.
97531 is pretty on point with what he sees but I was more of a passive observer at that point and didn't know as much as I often do going into these events. I can't get out of my head how totally nonathletic we looked in the front and how frequently we were overrun in the midfield with the guys I had been most excited about coming into the tournament (Busio, Leyva). It was a weird look for a USYNT as we have almost always been good at running and jumping but less good at actual soccer things. It was like a 180 from that old school mindset. That's one of my problems with US Soccer in general though is that we get these weird initiatives that come down and end up being total overcorrections. I've seen it many times through the course of my coaching licensing. It's like we were embarrassed about our reputation of being athletes who couldn't play soccer and went and found the most skilled guys we could find whether or not they were athletic. That's why the 17' team was so impressive to me. We had guys like Weah, Sands, Dest, Gloster that were great soccer players and great athletes. Then add in some guys in the middle like Sargent who is still a good athlete and Carleton (who really made that team go) who was not a good athlete but had some decent protectors behind him and it's a beautiful thing. Other than Bello, Scally, and KHF none of the 19' guys really seemed like they had the burst to do much when they did beat someone with skill or a well-executed passing combo and those three guys were all on the back line. Reyna obviously has the ability to do that but rarely showed it in those games. He just looked frustrated. I'm not giving up on the 19's but I will be shocked if they match the 17's and pleasantly surprised if they match the 15' group. Like I said before, if we get two LB's, Bello and KHF, plus Reyna out of this group, then we have fixed two of our biggest problem spots of the last 20 years so no complaints. At that point, Pepi, Scally, Busio, whoever else rises to the occasion is just gravy. I just saw @gogorath comment and that midfield was indeed a disaster. I mentioned it in passing above but it's worth coming back to. Mostly, I think it was a poorly constructed midfield and if you can't compete in the middle, you can't win games. And funny enough, I had coached Mason Judge (an 02' center defender) at a coaching course and part of the reason I made it a point to watch is that I assumed he would be one of the starting U17 central defenders. He was very talented and I wasn't at all surprised that he was in the national team pool. I think he was training with kids two years older than him and he was smooth on the ball and a great tackler. Needless to say, I was disappointed he wasn't even on the squad, especially considering our weakness at the position and it looks like he's progressing nicely in Germany now.
19's were a train wreck and looked to me very much like the senior team did at the time, thinking about trying to implement Gregg ball rather than actually playing soccer. They looked much more organic in qualifying.
I think your right about trying to play GB’s style they weren’t used to. I love the idea of each age group playing similar styles so they can seemlessly move up to the next group. I think for this team they should have left them alone since there wasn’t enough time to learn the new stuff. Start the next group on Triple G ball. So I’m mixed on how to judge this group. They looked great in qualifying and pedestrian in the WC. Probably in between. Should be 3-5 full national contributors although some may be from the age group and not the tournament team (like always).
Tim Weah vs Mexico pic.twitter.com/xLk2ia1n48— Kranks (@dis_possessed) November 14, 2021 Tim Weah vs Jamaica pic.twitter.com/m3ZiAfQe3H— Kranks (@dis_possessed) November 17, 2021
Tim Weah is also out for Lille and at this point, his involvement for the national team in January seems doubtful.
Man, Weah is more time injured than he is on the field. I wouldn't be surprised if Lille trades him, loans him or just let's him go soon.