After yet another slow start to the season the conventional wisdom, or should I say hope, is that the 2015 Galaxy will repeat their recent history of strong finishes. This pattern is remarkably consistent going back to at least 2011, with the turnaround always starting between games 12 and 14: Season Starts, Games 1→13 Year: W-L-T, Points 2011: 6-2-5, 23 2012: 3-8-2, 11 2013: 6-5-2, 20 2014: 5-3-5, 20 2015: 4-4-5, 17 Season Finishes, Games 14→34 Year: W-L-T, Points|Season Total,WC Finish 2011: 13-3-5, 44 |67, 1st 2012: 13-4-4, 43 |54, 4th 2013: 9-6-6, 33 |53, 3rd 2014: 12-4-5, 41 |61, 2nd 2015: ??-?-?, ?? |??, ? So (as I believe Dashiel often points out) our record this season is a typical of recent years. But can this team repeat those very strong finishes we put on from 2011 through 2014? Overall during this period we averaged 1.9 pts per game over the last 21 games and only once did we lose more than 4 of them. But this season we've lost Donovan and Sarvas and have been plagued by injuries. However Keane is back(?), we pick up Gerrard in July, and the we have 3 more games this year to turn it around (24 games left rather than 21). Does this team have what it takes to put together yet another strong finish? Or do you think we will limp along for much of the rest of the season as we have so far? Or something in between (my guess)? What are your predictions?
Best guess – this year ends up looking an awful lot like 2013. I say the turn around happens a littler later and is a little weaker than years past. The extra playoff spot means a comfortable, but low seed. As for the post-season itself it’s going to come down to the answers for these 4 players Robbie - is he fit and in form? Steven - does he adapt in time? Omar - can he keep his head in the game and his feet behind the halfway line for 90 minutes? Penedo - Superman or Clark Kent? Realistically, this feels like a transition year and the Cup is a long shot, I’d like to see LA really focus on the USOC. But this is MLS, if those 4 guys are on song that’s as good a spine as any in MLS.
This is definitely a transitional period and this season will reflect that. Fortunately (?), the injuries have come early during the season and not later. As long as we don't push previously injured players to play when they're not 100%, then we should have our strongest lineup ready to rack up the points we missed out on earlier this season. Prediction: Given Galaxy's previous seasons, I expect them to finish off strong. Maybe not as first or second in the Western Conference, but hopefully third.
I think it's almost entirely dependent on the injuries. There is quality in the group as a whole, and experience. We are going to lose some important pieces during the Gold Cup and probably for other international callups as well. Zardes, Penedo and Omar gone for several games will make things difficult. I'm not too encouraged by the injury record this year. Dunivant gone for an extended period. Rogers out with who-knows-what. AJ injured in preseason, and evidently not healed enough to come back without re-injuring himself. Keane, also injured, back in training, then injury re-occurs. I hope our training staff knows what it's doing. I hope Gerrard doesn't find himself the target of some random headhunting midfielder. We aren't going to blaze up into 1st place, or put on the offensive show we did last year. But I believe we'll pull it together enough to stay in playoff position in a very tough conference, maybe get as high as second place, and then there's no way to predict the playoffs right now.
Yes, I think injuries will determine whether we can battle for a 2-3-4 playoff spot, or battle for a 5-6-out position...
I don't know, he stands pretty close to the touch line. I could see him sticking a leg out and catching Gerrard.
Yes he does, must be part of the tactics in the 300 page plan they have. But we won't see that Galaxy hater unless they make the cup final. That is a long shot, even in the weak eastern conference. They are still the Red Bulls
Thank you! Finally decided to join. It's good to find a forum with great discussions about my favorite team.
This is a dangerous paradigm, fraught with peril. Just ask the Kings this season. Eventually you'll flip the switch and nothing will happen, or another team has a bigger, better generator backing up the switch.
2013 is still too fresh. I think most of us are skittish and a bit worried that the end product in August when we have the full team isn't going to be quite good enough. I guess we'll see. I am cautiously optimistic that the full team will gel and play good soccer, but I don't have too much of a rational basis for that.
Sorry but I don't see us ending up in 1st or 2nd as remotely realistic. From 2011->2014 the average # of points needed to get 2nd place was 59 which is 1.74 points per game. For us to average 1.74 pts/game for the entire season we will need to average pick up 47 pts in our last 24 games, which is a blistering ~2 pts per game. A record of say 13-3-8 or 14-5-5 would accomplish this but I don't think we have the talent to immediately start dominating the league like that. I did the math for all the playoff making finishes using the 2011-14 averages* Place, Pts needed in last 24 games, Example record for achieving that 1st, 52, 16-4-4 2nd, 47, 14-5-5 3rd, 42, 12-6-6 4th, 41, 12-7-5 5th, 36, 10-8-6 6th, 31, 9-11-4 Based on the realities of the math and our personnel I would predict we end up in 5th or 6th place. Our high side potential is probably 3rd or 4th. OTOH the positive takeaway from these numbers is that we should make the playoffs if we at all deserve it. A 9-11-4 record or its equivalent shouldn't be that hard to achieve. *There is one qualifier to the above math. There seems to be more parity than usual so far this year. If this continues then the points needed to come in the top 6 may be a bit lower than average. But the differences would show up more in the top spots (1st ->3rd) and be smaller as you move down. And I still predict a 5th or 6th place finish.
I was warming up my fingers to point this out. What might be interesting is to compare points/positions in 2015 to the same stage in prior seasons. E.g. last season at this stage there was a more than 10 point gap between LA and Seattle and RSL in 1st and 2nd respectively at this stage of the season; this season it’s 4. That doesn’t take in to account games in hand though.
Welcome! This is a great group of people here, and you should meet folks in person if you ever get out to a game! I'm terrible at predictions, but will say it was great to get the points tonight. We should rise in power rankings as a result.
Well we have two wins in a row to start the hoped for turnaround. But as a reminder of the task we have in front of us -- even after grinding out these consecutive 1-0 wins we are still in 6th place in the Western Conference in ppg. We have a lot of work ahead and little margin for error the rest of the way in.
Bruce seems to have similar thoughts, although he seems a bit worried about National Team callups in June...this is from last night.