Great stuff. I'd like to see the percent increase from a different year than '79-'80 though. That was in the peak of the NASL days, and there were still many areas in the country that had neither high school varsity program nor a youth soccer league or association. We didn't have youth soccer in our area until '78, and no varsity soccer in high school (boys/coed only) until 1984, whereas those other programs already existed. So it really had nowhere to go but up. I'd like to see how it compares from around 1994 after the World Cup, or 1996 after MLS got started. I doubt the percentage would be nearly as great, but I bet it would compare favorably.
After having thought about this issue recently again, the conclusion I came to was that the great hole in our system is at the middle school / junior high level. Here is my thinking on that point. From, lets say, 5 - 12, football, basketball, baseball, and soccer are on a pretty level playing field with regard to how kids participate. All have youth leagues of one kind or another that cost x number of dollars to take part in. Therefore, parents have fairly equal choices in sports they choose to introduce their kids to. When a kid gets to middle school, the balance changes in favor of two primary sports, football and basketball. In our state, virtually every middle school in the state has some kind of program for both boys and girls in these sports. The cost to play for your school in comparison to select soccer is not very close at all. Uniforms are provided for, travel to and from games is taken care of, games are not generally on weekends where they might interfere with other family plans. Plus, your kid gets to play for their school and get support and recognition from their classmates. Add to this that other sports like track and field and volleyball also come into play and it is easy to see why interest might begin to wane when kids hit junior high. Soccer is at a real disadvantage when it comes to middle school kids and once those kids are lost to the other sports at this age, there really is no going back, which is too bad because more and more high schools are putting together soccer programs. Without the linkage between elementary and high school, the sport will continue to suffer through the middle school years.
I think it's mostly a myth. As discussed... kids drop out of lots of sports for lots of reasons. The kids who are good usually keep playing...
Good point. There was a gap for me between when I stopped playing youth soccer between 6th grade (the early days; no more clubs or rec divisions for my age group at that time) and high school. Played basketball in between for my middle school. Luckily, I lost interest basketball so I went back to soccer and loved it.
I think another point that can be made is that a lot of people don't see soccer as a sport that can be played just for fun. As you get up into the higher age groups, there is a decline in the number of rec teams, as the good players go up to the elite divisions. It's been a while (10 years), but the last time I reffed, there was only one boys U-16 rec team in our whole league (which was, at the time, one of, if not the largest league in our state)! I sort of got the impression that a lot of kids quit playing when they realize they're not going to be good enough to go pro, or get a free ride to Clemson or UCLA. That, and as they get older, there aren't enough hours in a day to spend an hour and a half running up and down a soccer field, when there are jobs to go to, lawns to mow, dates to go on (I wish ), ad infinitum, and you just about blow an entire Sunday afternoon doing it (especially hard for those few of us who still do that thing called "church," and are at least marginally active). There needs to be more of a push for small-sided soccer in the late teen and adult ranks, in addition to indoor soccer. How many zillions of adults play softball on weeknights as opposed to baseball? Games, for the most part, are seven innings, or 75 minutes, whichever comes first (at least where I've played (I suck, BTW )). Why not have a 5 or 6 a side outdoor league during the week, where the games are 20-40 minutes long (2x10, 15, or 20-minute halves), played on smaller fields (say, 130' x 70') and smaller goals (6'6"' x 12')? Five a side in England has surpassed 11 a side in participation, and they have huge leagues (several five a side teams even have their own websites, believe it or not). It could end up being, as several have said, to soccer what softball is to baseball.
I think a good percentage of kids who drop out of sports are the late maturers/ late puberty kids. Our competitive environment squeezes those kids out way too early. It's a shame because many studies I have read show late maturers in general become bigger and stronger than early maturers. Early maturers dominate sports around ages 13-15, the middle school years through early high school. After that the late maturers begin to take over and dominate. Tough part is, is to figure out how to keep those kids involved and motivated through those tough times. One study I read said back in 80's the Eastern Block countries began to seek out the late maturers for their Olympic squads and had improved results. http://www.geocities.com/capitalunited/athletic.htm
This is an old thread, but it's important because this issue directly affects and reflects the quality of soccer played in the MLS/USL/USMNT, and the popularity and financial success of pro soccer in the US. The fact that soccer has exploded to become the #1 youth sport in the US is a testament to things like: simplicity in rules and equipment, low cost, large number of players involved in games, appeal to both sexes, perceived safety, perceived cardiovascular benefits, egalatarian involvement on the field, etc. Not to mention it's fun for kids - it burns a lot of energy, is fast, simple, and fun. Soccer in its basic form is a simple, effective formula for fun that has won over the rest of the world for a hundred years. Some ask "why hasn't this translated to the pro level"? And some point out that it's still struggling to make in-roads at the college level. And this excellent data shows that it's still only the #5 participation sport in high schools in America...although it has grown tremendously over the last 30 years. So why is soccer in America taking long to crack into the high school level, even longer to crack into the college level, and longest to crack into the pro level? Because sports are an inverse pyramid of money as you go up those levels. And money means established interests/institutions around them. And these take a long time to change. But they're changing. Even if it's happening slowly. The world has globalized at an alarming rate over the last decade, and will continue to do so. Soccer essentially "missed" America for a very long time because, as odd as this sounds, we were "provincial". And now that the world is opening up, soccer is pouring into America like flood waters through a hole in a dam. Soccer WILL crack the high school level in participation, as the moderator's research shows us. And it WILL crack the college level. And it will crack the pro level. And when it does, America will be a world soccer power like few others. It cannot be stopped.
I agree that it is changing and will continue to do so. I live in the same area of Houston as Woodlands above, and I have lived here for 20 years now. When I was growing up I didn't even KNOW anyone who I at least knew they played soccer. In our neighborhoods we got together to play pick up games of football and basketball. I grew up playing all of the "big 3" sports. I never once saw a group of kids kicking a soccer ball about. Now, today, in the same neighborhood I grew up in, kids are always in the street playing soccer, and at the neighborhood park, twice a week high-school age kids come out, on their own, no coaches or adults, choose up sides and play pick up games of SOCCER. It is penetrating our nation, kids are staying with it longer and longer, and that is a very good thing in my personal opinion.
While we're on the subject, there were no soccer programs at the middle school level in our school district until 2007. And we parents had to complaint to get this to happen. It's a slow process that is happening. Once we see every middle school, high school, and major university in the country have a varsity/district soccer program (not just club level), then these programs can start to get more competitive and attract real crowds and generate more interest for the sport, both for players and fans. This directly addresses the original point of this excellent thread. We need to get all our schools around the country to get involved with soccer. And the ripple effect will eventually be felt from everything to pro soccer attendance to TV contracts, etc. If you're a parent and your local school district doesn't have a soccer program, you need to email your principals and put pressure on them.
All of the highschools, at least in Houston, do have soccer programs basically. The middle school level for the most part no, though more are moving to add it. The problem though is this. Having a school team at middle school might raise the profile of the sport some - a good thing. But it will also take training time away from the club teams, which means it will hurt the overall quality of the players I think. There is no way a middle school will ever offer the level of training that a top club team can. I guess it could be a place for the rec players to play, and the club players stay with their clubs until high school ... we could see.
I think the whole club-versus-school debate can be answered by saying "both". For our school district, the middle school season is short, starts after the club season ends, and most of the players are club players. The school team practices 4 or 5 times a week, unlike 2 times a week for club. It builds team spirit, builds school spirit, brings classmates out to see the games, and can be a feeder for high school, which can feed into college. Private clubs have developed as a replacement for underdeveloped school programs. And by having a school program, you attract a whole new audience (kids who wouldn't normally have the parent time/money/transportation for a private club), yet who may have the natural talent, especially if identified at a young enough age. If soccer is ever going to get as big as gridiron, basketball, and baseball, it needs to get big in the schools.
My one correction though would be this. You say Middle School could feed High School to feed college. Do you have kids who play? High school play is almost irrelevant in college recruiting. You can not get into a good college, or even a decent one, without being on a good club team. Colleges barely scout high school teams. Why would they? They have limited funds and to travel to see a high school game you see 2 teams and unless it's a TOP school, maybe only a couple of college level players. Instead they go to the top club competitions and see countless college level players playing at the highest level. Now there are two issues here - developing the popularity/profile of the sport, and developing the players. For the first part school soccer is great. For the development of the players though we need to continue to refine our club teams, and bring in the MLS/proffessional side as well. The ODP is also a good program, that may need some tweaking but still brings the best players together to push one another.
Right now, yes, you are correct; club is where the colleges recruit for the most part, at least in soccer. Not so in other sports in America. If soccer could get ever get to the point where it's as big in the schools as the Big 3 sports, it would be a different story. As for my kids, I'm encouraging them to be accountants; sports is just for fun.
Well my oldest boy has a chance at a college scholarship, and he loves soccer. He knows it won't be a career for him but I encourage him to take it as far as he can. The thing though is that high school soccer not being a recruiting center isn't because high school soccer is bad. The Klein High team here would take most any select side in the state. The thing is that at college, particularly for men because of "Prop 44" or whatever it was called, soccer budgets are miniscule and scouting trips are minimal. A coach as I said can go see two good high schools play, and if it's a game (let's say local to you and me) between Klein and Kingwood, or Klein Collins and The Woodlands, they might see a dozen or more college level players. But if they instead take that weekend trip to see, say, the Austin Labor Day Cup they will see every top player in Region III at one place, playing MULTIPLE games, in that single trip. In order for high school soccer to be able to effectively send players to college we have to have the COLLEGE soccer teams budgets quadruppled or more, and staffs increased immensely. If that EVER happens, it won't be in the next two generations.
Good luck to him and we'd better continue any further discussions offline so as not to hijack this thread any more.
After 18 yrs old most sports are given up. Fact of life. Play after that tackle football turns into touch football. Baseball players turn into soft ball players. Soccer is the same turns into rec soccer. These are not the same games. After 18 playing the real games is in college if the player is good enough, or semi pro tackle football, or Amature club soccer in the best adult leagues. Only the best play at those above levels. Then you have the very few. The guys that actually make it to the live the dream and play professionally.
Generally speaking the results are pretty much unchanged. The only time soccer's growth rate deviated significantly from trend was after Pele's first year with the Cosmos. And the following year it went down and resumed normal growth.
Indeed, what prompted me to do this research was some articles in the Houston Chronicle about how there's only one Division I program in the state (SMU) and no Big XII programs. In the article was quoted an AD defending the policy by claiming that soccer is not a popular high school sport because "they give the sport up as teenagers." Needless to say, Texas is rife with college baseball teams--and golf, and cross country, and so on. Seeing that boys soccer is as popular as any of these in high school shows that this defense doesn't hold up the way it did 25 years ago. And the larger argument "against soccer" has always been that it is a "foreign game" inimical to American culture. What the data are starting to show here is that culture changes--it just doesn't change very fast. Everyone, pro and con, is sitting around waiting for the moment to come that will kick off a "soccer revolution"--but that moment will probably never arrive. Because what we're witnessing in reality is a "soccer evolution" and it started decades ago.
Well said. And it will continue to grow for many more decades to come, despite all the worrying, resistance, and prophecies of either overnight success or impending doom. The recent post of that article showing how soccer just reached #3 in high school participation in California shows where the future is headed. The future of America is going to have more soccer in it, whether anyone likes it or not. A perfect example is how attendance at soccer games in LA are already exceeding attendance at many NBA and NHL games.
I'm 17 now, after my freshman year of soccer, and into my sophomore year, I was on the verge of quitting, I almost did once in middle school too. Basically, you look around, nobody cares. I always thought it would be cool to have everyone watching you every Friday night. Eventually I gave that dream up, and decided to finish soccer, and that's when I started following club and international soccer. What I'm saying is, I think there's a point in every teenagers soccer career they have to decide, lately, more have been sticking with it.
I gave up playing soccer when I was 12 and I changed schools. I got into rugby instead which I found more interesting to play.
I'm proud of that. I know a guy who who was a soccer star in high school. He was one of the best players in the small league even as a sophomore, and led their school to their first ever victory in the district playoffs, and then led them back two more years. Their school never had more than about a dozen spectators at any soccer game. When he was a senior, he played varsity basketball because he was tall, they needed players, and they heard of his success on the soccer field. And on the basketball team, he played to crowds of hundreds every game, even thousands in some tournaments, was listed in the newspaper every week, and was occasionally featured in short clips on the nightly TV news. And he was a mediocre basketball player, on a team that placed last in its division. What kind of a message did that kid receive about what society valued more, soccer or basketball?
Bumping this thread as the numbers for 2006/07 came out: http://www.nfhs.org/web/2007/09/high_school_sports_participation.aspx Baseball: 477,430 Soccer: 377,999 So in the past two years, boys soccer has gained another roughly 5,000 players on baseball. At some point, I'll redraw the graphs and see if this makes any difference to the catch baseball year.
It set soccer back a bit in terms of the "catch date", which would now be at 2023. Here are the participation figures for soccer and baseball, with the ones in italics being the future projections from the trend line. Code: Year Soccer Baseball 1972 78,510 1974 98,482 1976 115,811 1977 115,811 1978 141,070 1979 132,073 1980 133,649 1981 149,376 1982 161,167 1983 162,504 1984 173,423 398,608 1985 180,281 391,810 1986 196,028 393,905 1987 203,984 406,046 1988 208,935 407,630 1989 218,973 412,825 1990 220,777 413,581 1991 228,380 419,015 1992 236,082 433,684 1993 242,095 430,401 1994 255,538 438,846 1995 272,810 440,503 1996 283,728 444,476 1997 296,587 444,248 1998 309,484 449,897 1999 321,416 455,305 2000 330,044 451,701 2001 332,850 450,513 2002 339,101 451,674 2003 345,156 453,792 2004 349,785 457,146 2005 354,587 459,717 2006 358,935 470,671 2007 377,999 477,430 [i]2008 385,595 477,706 2009 394,266 481,250 2010 403,295 483,884 2011 412,553 486,182 2012 421,870 489,029 2013 430,756 491,628 2014 440,686 494,266 2015 449,729 496,557 2016 458,349 498,866 2017 467,337 502,098 2018 476,529 504,851 2019 485,310 508,079 2020 494,191 511,284 2021 502,940 514,663 2022 512,086 517,858 2023 521,224 521,351 2024 530,161 525,197 2025 539,169 528,628[/i] The survey goes back to the academic year ending 1970 for each sport, but started my series for each sport based on the line that gave me the best R-squared value (for baseball, 0.9428, for soccer 0.9908) which ended up being kind to baseball because that sport actually declined in participation by a good 40,000 boys between 1978 and 1985, which neither the stats nor myself considers very relevant to today. Eliminating everything before 1985 for soccer would have almost no impact except to reduce soccer's R-squared.
I completely disagree which is why I posted the information on LA schools into the MLS thread until someone moved it to this where few people follow or really pay attention to its significance. But then again I live in a place where very large numbers of people of all ages follow and play the sport. It is having a profound effect and will continue to do so. This is happening at the college where attendance has been increasing 5-10% a year for the top programs. Connecticut had over 58,000 in attendance this year. Santa Barbara played in 3 games where attendance was over 7,000. Furthermore, if many of the most meaningful games weren't played in frigid winter conditions (often at night), attendance would be much higher for many schools. This is still peanuts compared to basketball or football, but the growth is becoming noticeable. Take a look at the U17 and the U20 team games versus Brazil. The growth is also having an impact on the quality of players we are producing. But what you are seeing is just a start as compared to what is coming. As we get more second and third generation coaches the quality and quantify of players will really start to increase.