The USMNT 26-man roster for World Cup 2022 announced p80 #1991

And with Ream starting all but 1 game he really messes with our average. What's the mean? More like 24?

 

Here's a list of teams since 1950 that according to Transfermarkt have fielded a lineup in the knockout stages of the World Cup as young or younger than the lineup we fielded against the Netherlands (25.2 years). I've also noted the youngest and oldest lineups fielded by each team at any point in the tournament. That was a lot of lineups to scroll through, so it's possible I've missed some, but hopefully not.

North Korea in '66 (22.3 to 23.1)
Ghana in '06 (24 to 25.1)
Yugoslavia in '62 (24.3 to 25.3)
Saudi Arabia in '94 (24.6 to 25.7)
Ghana in '10 (24.8 to 25.9)
USA in '22 (24.9 to 25.5)
Spain in '06 (24.9 to 26.9)
Slovakia in '10 (25 to 26.9)
Brazil in '54 (25.2 to 27.2)

If Chris Richards had been healthy for this tournament, it's possible we'd have fielded the youngest lineup of any knockout stage team in over 50 years (though I don't think we can assume we'd get out of the group stage absent Tim Ream's contributions).

 

Put another way, in the last 19 World Cups there have been 8 teams as young or younger than this US team that have made it to the knockout round. I can't be bothered to do all the addition, but there have been somewhere around 250 teams that have participated in all those cups combined.

 

Players I think have a better than 50% chance of being on the roster in 2026 by age:

Zimmerman (33)
Turner (32)
M Robinson (29)
A Robinson (28)
Pulisic (27), McKennie (27), Adams (27)
Richards (26), Weah (26), Sargent (26)
Dest (25), Aaronson (25)
Tillman (24)
Reyna (23), Musah (23), Pepi (23), Scally (23), Paredes (23)

18 players. That's not a bad core. 2 or 3 more will emerge that have the coach's confidence. Add a couple goalies. And that's your 23. We aren't going to have any "roster fillers" or "vibes guys" next time. Unless the rosters are 26 again. Then I could see 1 or 2 of those kinds of players.

 

Would be interesting to see their averages at the next WC. Might give us some ideas what to expect for 2026.

 

Three of the teams (North Korea, Yugoslavia, and Slovakia) did not qualify for the subsequent World Cup (in North Korea's case apparently because they refused to play Israel in World Cup qualifying?).

The lineups for 90's Saudi Arabia, 50's Brazil's, and aughts Ghana aged about a year or less, on average, from one World Cup to the next. Spain's lineup aged about 2.5 years from '06 to '10.

I'll do a deeper dive on Spain '06 and Ghana in '10, since both fielded lineups that were pretty similar in average age to the US this time, and since those are the two most recent examples.

The Spanish lineup's average age was 24.9 years in its 2006 knockout stage game and it was between 27.3 and 27.6 in its 2010 knockout stage games. 7 of 11 starters, all of them in their 20s in 2006, basically stayed the same (Casillas, Ramos, Puyol, Alonso, Xavi, Villa, and Torres, though the latter was benched for the final, with a 22 year old Pedro taking his place). Fabregas, who was a starter in '06 at the age of 19, was instead a regular sub in '10, while Iniesta, who was depth on the '06 roster at the age of 22, was a starter in '10. Three players who were starters in that '06 game did not make the roster in '10: CB Pablo Ibanez (24 in '06), LB Mariano Pernia (29 in '06), and AM Raul (28 in '06), while three of Spain's starters in 2010 did not make the roster in '06: CB Pique (23 in '10), DM Busquets (21 in '10), and LB Capdevilla (32 in '10).

Ghana's average age was between 25.2 and 25.9 in its 2010 knockout stage games, and it was between 25.4 and 26.5 in its 2014 games. There were only 4 players who started regularly in both tournaments: Mensah, Asamoah, Ayew, and Gyan (aged 19 to 24 in '10). In addition, Sulley Muntari and Kevin Prince Boateng (aged 23 to 25 in '10) were on both rosters and were expected to start regularly in each, but Muntari played sparingly in 2010 and Boateng played sparingly in 2014 both due to personality/disciplinary issues. Essentially none of the other starters in '14 (all in their 20s) were on the '10 roster, and none of the other starters in '10 were on the '14 roster.

Obviously, for more reasons than one, I'd hope that Spain is the likelier path to follow.

 

But of course "better than 50%" isn't 100%. Let's say you think they have a 75% chance each. That means you'd expect 13 or so of those players you'd listed to make the roster.

 

Yes. There are guys who are locks barring injury and some just over 50%.