Under Dunga, this Brazilian side often has a hard time breaking down a bunker (in large part because Dunga likes to keep 3-4 in the back, so Kaka & company often have to try to score while going 6-7 on 10) and rely on the counter and set pieces to score. Sound familiar? With that in mind, I believe these are the main keys to the game: 1. Set pieces. Who ever scores more goals from set pieces will likely win the game (if it's Brazil with the advantage on set pieces, there's no "likely"). 2. The American left side vs. the Brazilian right side. If Dunga allows Maicon to go against Bocanegra, Brazil will likely score; I think that Maicon will burn Boca at least a handful of times if he's allowed to go forward. However Dunga may not let him, in part because he's conservative, but also because it would present a ton of opportunity to our stronger countering side. I really like having Donovan and Davies running along the same side of the field, especially against a defense where the rightback is caught upfield. That was the case in the first 25 minutes of the Spain game, when Donovan's and Davies's speed opened up numerous scoring chances by throwing the Spanish defense in to disarray (go back and take a look at the first goal; the Spanish defense was so out of whack that their left back was left trying to deal with our big hulking bull of a centerforward all by his lonesome on the Spanish right side of their box). So if Maicon goes forward, the US has a good chance of scoring as well. This leads to 3. Whoever scores first will almost certainly win the game. If Brazil scores first, Maicon will sit back, closing up a promising avenue of attack, and us, with our not-world-class possession skills, will have to chase a goal against a deadly counterattacking side. If we score first, we can sit back, and either Dunga will have to bring up Maicon (giving us more opportunity on the counter) or Brazil will need to break down our shell while effectively playing with a 3 man disadvantage on offense.
These are the same points one might make for any game, but whatever... 1) No rash tackles. No red cards. Keep 11 men on the field. 2) Control the midfield. 3) Deny time and space. See #2 4) Mark tightly, esp. on set pieces. 5) Be first to the ball, wherever possible. 5) Don't be afraid to win. Punish Brazil's mistakes.
Control the midfield? If that won't get us, then Brazil's speedy attackers will test Gooch, Demerit, and Boca's pace. South Africa gave Spain trouble with a 4-5-1. Will BB do the same vs Brazil, who South Africa also gave trouble. Hey, I'm ecstatic we've gotten this far!
The biggest key to staying in the game is not getting another red card. That seems kind of obvious, but when the team is averaging almost 1 red card a game, it is something that the team needs to be careful of. Unfortunately, that is not entirely in the USA's control. There seems to be bias as to who gets a red and who gets a yellow.
We're hot right now with the 442. That seems to truly be the best formation for the guys we have out there right now. If say Ching were at this tournament and Jozy was injured, and were Torres or Adu or Kljestan showing well in the tournament so far, I might be advocating a 451. But this is the formation that we've been doing the damage recently with these guys who are in form. So I say keep it. It's working, and it keeps things simple for our guys, and they've been benefiting from the simple approach.
Be everywhere, all the time. There was a U.S. player within a step of a Spaniard - if not glued to his hip - pretty much all the time in that game. Deny them space. Sounds easy...
The psychological factor is important too. Unlike UEFA teams, CONMEBOL teams make a point of playing most of their matches as visitors, in hostile environments. Africa, Asia, Europe, North America are regularly visited by the South American teams, and more often than not they return undefeated. Also, the CONMEBOL qualification is the most murderous: playing at 3600 meters above sea level, or in the 47C of Barranquilla, or being unable to sleep the whole night because the fans outside your hotel put heavy metal full volume, etc., nothing compares to the sort of mental pressure those teams have to face every year. I think that may be the key here.
The Brazilian right side is worrisome. Maicon presents a bigger challenge on attack than Ramos, even though Ramos is a very good player. We will have a larger left side (LM and LB) to help deal with Maicon. However, the tactic against Spain of conceding the wings and many crosses is more dangerous against Brazil as they are more dangerous with balls into the boxes, imo. Yet, if we defend more towards the sidelines, we can leave more gaps towards the middle of the pitch which Brazil can exploit as well.
OK, it is better to slow up the attack and keep possession than to play only defense with a team that is superior in talent and is pressing to score! That's it we can't try to run with them