The script - 2019/20 epl prediction

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by Sexy Beast, Jul 31, 2019.

  1. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    #26 Sexy Beast, Aug 14, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019
    First of all, Klopp being genius doesnt minimize the fact that Pep is the genius as well. They are clearly two stand out managers in the world.

    But, lets see if liveprool can replicate the same form again. There are many reasons why they wont break the 90 points landmark this season.

    Champions league remains a huge lottery whether you win it or lose it so this doesnt apply to it as much.

    Liverpool had season with no major injuries for their key players or players in positions in which they cant afford injuries. Again we come back to left back. Robertson, the signing Klopp made for the first team completed 36 games last epl campaign. How many did Mendy?
    You can take away 57.5M from the net spending because Pep could hardly count on Mendy. Pep had to improvise with Zinchenko, Danilo, Laporte, Delph, etc. The Liverpools front three is basically undestructabile. Aguero in 2018 campaign when theyve reached 100 points has missed more minutes than all of liverpools front three put together..... what if salah gets injured for like 2 months this season?

    https://understat.com/league/EPL/2018
    Even with hardly no injuries whatsoever Liverpool was much less impressive in both attack and defense plus how many 3 points they won last season by a late gamewinner. How many Origi had alone? They wont keep winning 2-1, 1-0 with late goals and unimpressive performances. Luck runs out in 38 games format and plus you will lose some games being absolutely dominant team which is essentially 90% of games City draws or loses.

    Alisson had one of the most impressive gk seasons in recent history and he boosted their defensive record by a lot. I doubt thats sustainable especially with Alisson being out now. Will Van Dijk replicate the same type of performance? What if Van Dijk gets injured?

    If at the end of season liverpool again gets 95+ points we can to some extand say he had accomplished the same thing Pep did with City but with much less money.
    But i doubt it. They have to keep overachieving and having luck by their side.

    The difference between Liverpools net spending and Citys net spending is simple. City has bought first XI, bench and future, Liverpool has only bought the first XI which luckly remained healthy.

    As i said, give it time and other teams will catch up with City in terms of net spending. From now on they will have 1 or 2 significant signings per season while others will have to go through what City under Pep has gone through in 2 seasons, which is change of generations. Plus for example, City can sell Sane for 100+M and feel basically no consequences whatsoever. Hell, they can sell De Bruyne for 150M and you essentially get last seasons City. Only thing Coutinho has done for them is lowered their net spending.

    If you think Klopp has done as good of a job as Pep, you dont understand how much better this City team is right now and settled for the future, and you dont understand how much more it had to be done to bring City to this level than Liverpool.

    Kolarov, Clichy, Demichelis, Kompany, Otamendi (29), Sagna, Zabaleta, Fernando, Fernandinho, Yaya Toure, Navas.

    The arguably the best Citys squad in last few seasons:

    Ederson
    Walker, Kompany, Laporte, Zinchenko
    Fernandinho
    De bruyne David Silva
    Bernardo Aguero Sterling

    6 of those were already in City when he came. So he replaced 30+ old fullbacks, bought quantity of players for bench and replaced few players that dont suit his style of play like Hart, Mangala, Nasri.. we can call that a luxury.

    I cant see how could Klopp or anyone do as much for City spending any less money than Pep did.

    I would understand the argument for net spending if he bought like Eriksen for 80M and then sold him for 40M because he didnt do well. He bought Bonucci and then terminated his contract for not settling in, etc.

    He uses 95% of players he bought and the core of his best players remains that he inherited, (unlike Klopp who had to change whole XI but that might be due to quality of players)
     
  2. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    What I said is the word 'genius' being overused.

    You are right City hasn't bought ready made superstar attackers for 100+ million. However, in the past 4 years they were responsible for creating the most expensive goalkeeper in history (at that point), the most expensive full-back in history, the 2nd most expensive defender in history, the most expensive defensive midfielder in history, the most expensive attacking midfielder in history, the most expensive winger in history. That's quite a list.
     
  3. ChizzyChisnall

    Feb 2, 2017
    Club:
    AC Siena
    Agreed. Football is a weak-link sport. Splashing out 100+ million super attacking players don't often bring better results than spending relatively less (but still absolutely big) on lesser glamorous positions such as fullbacks, defensive midfielders and goalkeepers.
     
  4. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    So if you buy danilo for 50 milions he will perform better than if he was bought for 20 milions.
    There is easy argument that all of those players were overpriced. They could have been bought for cheaper if City cared to prolong talks.
    The bottom line, and the thing Pep has to work with, is 24 year old Ederson with one proper year of European football, 23 year old Mendy, Laporte, etc.. those players were in no way established individuals and top 5 in their respective positions, arguably not top 10.

    The part i see is high success rate with his transfers and transformation of players he already had at the club. Most notable Sterling who in 2016 was widely regarded as one of the worst transfers in epl history. Mistakes he made in past 3 seasons cant be counted on the fingers of one hand. The away game vs Tott in ucl, Nolito, Monaco 2nd game, probably few more in 1st season.
     
  5. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Gameweek 2

    Arsenal 1-0 Burnley
    Aston Villa 1-3 Bournemouth
    Brighton 0-0 West Ham
    Everton 3-0 Watford
    Norwich 2-3 Newcastle
    Southampton 0-3 Liverpool
    Manchester City 2-1 Tottenham
    Sheffield 2-0 Crystal Palace
    Chelsea 1-1 Leicester
    Wovlerhampton 1-0 Manchester United

    As i said i would share, these are my predictions for gameweek 2. I might change till the start tomorrow
     
  6. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    I don't think I'll make a habit of it, but using these predictions (not meaning to influence if you still change - I guess I won't anyway though), I'll have another try at picking most likely (indicated by number 1) to least likely (indicated by number 10) scoreline according to my estimations, and then in the second set of brackets the same for results (the winning team, or the draw as listed in your choices above).

    Surely I'll not do worse than last time lol, although I would say I felt all of your predictions last week seemed pretty feasible results wise at least (but the one I thought least likely scoreline wise actually came true). Not to say I'd have picked the same results necessarily in every case (I didn't really think about this, but perhaps I'd have gone with Southampton at least getting a point at Burnley and one or two other alterations, maybe!).

    Arsenal 1-0 Burnley (5) (2)
    Aston Villa 1-3 Bournemouth (9) (7)
    Brighton 0-0 West Ham (6) (5)
    Everton 3-0 Watford (1) (3)
    Norwich 2-3 Newcastle (7) (9)
    Southampton 0-3 Liverpool (2) (4)
    Manchester City 2-1 Tottenham (4) (1)
    Sheffield 2-0 Crystal Palace (3) (6)
    Chelsea 1-1 Leicester (8) (10)
    Wovlerhampton 1-0 Manchester United (10) (8)
     
    Sexy Beast repped this.
  7. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    On second thought I changed it a bit

    Arsenal 2-0 Burnley
    Aston Villa 1-4 Bournemouth
    Brighton 0-1 West Ham
    Everton 2-0 Watford
    Norwich 1-1 Newcastle
    Southampton 1-3 Liverpool
    Manchester City 1-0 Tottenham
    Sheffield 0-2 Crystal Palace
    Chelsea 2-2 Leicester
    Wovlerhampton 1-0 Manchester United
     
  8. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Haha, the one scoreline you kept the same was the one I said was least likely in my view. If the results follow last week's pattern you'll get that one right!

    I probably see the Arsenal & West Ham scores as more likely now. Maybe the Everton and Norwich fixtures too, and possibly Southampton-Liverpool but I'd be undecided on whether I'd guess 0-3 or 1-3 as being more likely. Close calls on switching the Palace result and making it 2-2 at Chelsea, but I'd be verging on considering those more likely too even I think. I might see the Man City and Bournemouth adjusted scores as slightly less likely if anything myself (but can understand the logic of a tight/cagey game between feasible title contenders, and a resounding win finished with a flourish once they have the momentum/confidence and the opposition don't, in theory).
     
  9. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Well thinking is that Wolves wont play high press or go out there to outrun United which means that United will have to break double, mid pressing, defensive block rather than counter attack like vs chelsea. I dont think they are particularly great offensively and with Pogba being distracted, they lose their best creator, distributor, holding midfielder.
    Wolverhampton is good enough to keep clean sheet at home against this United. They were great against top 6 last season. They could score because they are having an underdog, nothing to lose mentality and they just as well might be better team at this moment. I dont know how tactically and physically prepared they are, but 1-0 is not something i would find surprising.
    Having that said, like always, it can go in many directions. Some wolves player might have a day off and whole team might lose because of it. After all their individual quality is lesser..
     
  10. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Well, I am sure that my tendency is to err on the side of predicting more goals than there actually are (on average). Even nowadays slightly I guess, after the increased rate of goals with various rule changes facilitating that.

    My idea for that game has Wolves taking the game to United a bit more than yours does though I think (and so I'd feel about 4 goals in the game could well happen at least, not that I think it is highly likely or something though - I wouldn't go that far), but we'll see what happens!
     
  11. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Liverpool does surprisingly well with their 3rd/4th goalkeeper. Yes it is only Southampton but they don't need to get out of 2nd gear. So much surplus of quality (didn't see first 25 minutes tbf).

    1162746315643789315 is not a valid tweet id


    1162736339684491266 is not a valid tweet id


    It is not great football but very reminiscent of the ManUnited Ferguson teams that also paced themselves.

    Also: Salah shows more and more in a creative sense.
     
  12. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord




    ManCity should win this with ease now, with him back and a bench stronger than ever.
     
  13. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    As i said. If they can repeat 90+ points season, it means it wasnt a fluke, they actually know how to pace their form. If they dont, they overachieved in 2019 epl. I think its later.
    (You can carry moment throughout the same season, but i believe you cmat throughout the stretch of 2 seasons so that will be a good indicator).

    Remember last season when they started with the incredible clean sheet form? Two games in they concede at anfield from norwich and southampton. It is not quite like last year. I reckon in next months they will draw some outside top 6 matches by 1-1, 2-2 that they didnt last season just because of absence of alisson. And i expect an injury of any key player at some point, like salah firmino, van dijk that will slow them down for a bit and put them outside 90+ reach.

    I dont think it is sustainable and remember, Fergusons united werent hitting 97 points campaigns, but rather high 80s if i remember correctly. Thats easily 4,5 games difference result wise. Thats not nothing. Pacing perhapse yes, but 97 points kind of pacing, i dont think so. I believe it is overachiving, luck and from the games ive watched, it felt like that.
    We'll see tho.
     
  14. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    I am going to say it, if City threepeats wuth another 95+ season, they are the 2nd best team of all time regardless of ucl. If they dominate ucl it might be close with number one.

    Its unreal how good that team is. Absolute joy to watch
     
  15. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Arsenal 2-0 Burnley (2-1)
    Aston Villa 1-4 Bournemouth (1-2)
    Brighton 0-1 West Ham (1-1)
    Everton 2-0 Watford (1-0)
    Norwich 1-1 Newcastle (3-1)
    Southampton 1-3 Liverpool (1-2)
    Manchester City 1-0 Tottenham (2-2)
    Sheffield 0-2 Crystal Palace (1-0)
    Chelsea 2-2 Leicester (1-1)
    Wovlerhampton 1-0 Manchester United (1-1)

    Few narrow misses. Few major mispredictions. As per tradition, my gameweek 2 is worse than gameweek 1
     
  16. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
  17. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    What is the rating (the vertical axis) based on?
     
  18. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord


    Fergie Time in the reverse!
     
    EvanJ repped this.
  19. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    "Only second".. I mean how often does an away player scores a winner in 90th+ minute on any stadium?
     
  20. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
  21. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
  22. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Maybe time to change my predictions...

     
  23. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    To what
     
  24. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Change my call for a City league win to Liverpool. Allison will be back later.
     
  25. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    City looks vulnerable with Otamendi and Stones. Thats true. It will be their biggest test yet. Will see.
     

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