Why are we in our current precarious playoff situation? We were in trouble last season but we finished strong. This year though our finish so far has been anything but strong - for example we have exactly 2 points in our last 4 games. We may still win the whole thing but any objective observer would have to admit we aren't looking like the juggernaut we were in 2011 & 2012. The question is why? The most popular opinion is that it's mainly the defense letting us down. After all we have Keane and Donovan up front, so the offense should be there right? And of course the end-of-game defensive issues have been incredibly frustrating and very well documented. So there is a strong temptation to blame the defense. But is this really the main issue? Last season we gave up 47 goals in 34 games or 1.4 goals/game. This season the goals allowed has dropped to 37 in 30 games or 1.2 goals per game or 0.2 fewer goals per game than the 2012 version. In reality the defense isn't really worse this season - it just feels that way because of the timing of the goals. And for another reason I'll get to below. Lest anyone forget last season we were really, really vulnerable to being scored on in the 1st fifteen minutes. And sadly in the 1st 5 or so minutes on more occasions than I want to remember. This year that hasn't been an issue - it's now the last 15 minutes when we've been kind of a sieve. Of course it feels a lot better to come back to tie after giving up a goal in the 1st 5 minutes than it does to have to watch a win turn into a tie because of a lapse on the last play of the game. But in reality a 1-1 game always counts the same; doesn't matter how you get there. The second likely reason our defense is under the microscope more this year is that last season's offense bailed us out more often. In 2012 LAG scored 59 goals or 1.7 goals per game. That number has dropped to 46 in 30 games so far this year, a scoring rate of 1.5 goals per game. And as goals are wont to do, last season's extra goals turned some games around for us, ties into wins or losses into wins or ties. And we all know that defensive lapses are quickly forgiven after a win. But after a loss not only are they not forgotten - they are likely to be dissected in slo-mo replays and endless discussions on these boards. So objectively speaking our defense is better by 0.2 goals/game and our offense is worse by almost exactly the same amount. So even though it feels like the D is our biggest problem (and it is killing us all emotionally) in terms of wins and losses the bigger culprit is the dip in our offensive numbers. So why the offensive drop off? Keane and Donovan have been away more and that is part of it but they've also upped their goals per game rate in 2013 and that mitigates the missed games for the most part. The main reason we aren't as dominant as in previous years is because for the 1st time in several years we only have two real scoring threats on the team. To see the steep drop off in offensive balance here is a comparison of 2013 to 2012 - Player (games played): Goals, Assists, Pts (2 forgoal, 1 for assist) 2013: Keane (19): 13, 11,37. Landon (19): 8, 8,24. Marcelo (29):4,4,12. Jiminez(24):3,3,9. Zardes (23): 3, 1,7. Villarreal(20): 2, 1,5. Franklin(29):1,4,6. Juninho(30):1,4,6. Omar(24):1,2,4. Also part-timers McBean, Stephens, Rugg have all scored a single goal. No one else on the team has scored. 2012: Keane (28): 16, 9,41. Landon (26): 9,14,32. Beckham(24): 7,9,23. Juninho(32):7,4,18. Magee(29):5,4,14. Buddle(19):3,1,7. Marcelo (27):2,2,6. Dunivant(29):2,2,6. Barrett(18):1,3,5. Jiminez(15):1,2,4. Villarreal, Omar, Noonan had a goal apiece and Franklin had no goals but 5 assists. So in 2012 (with four more games of course) heading into the playoffs we had 5 players who each had 5 or more goals and 14 or more points; this season we have 2 such players. That may or may not go up to 3 players by seasons end if Marcello bags another goal. Not everyone has to score - just setting up people is enough to get the team going. So what about assists? This season once you get past Keanovan the rest of the team has combined for 27 assists, say 31 if we add a few by non-Keanovans during the last 4 games. In 2012 players 3 through 16 contributed 38 assists. That's over 20% more assists last season from players not named Landon or Robbie. A better way to see how much more balanced our scoring was last season is to look just at total points. In 2012 our 3rd and 4th best scorers combined to contribute fully as many points as Keane did. So if Keane was having an off day there were players to step up. This season our 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th players combined still haven't contributed as many points as Keane has by himself. So when Keane is off, like he was against Portland, unless Landon goes on a streak (and we all know he is more of an assist man than a pure goal-scorer), we are likely in trouble. Bottom line - in the course of a single season we've gone from a team with 5 offensive weapons that could really hurt you at any moment, five players for our opponents to worry about, to a team with only 2 real offensive threats. How hard is it to mark out two players? Well pretty difficult when they are Robbie Keane and Landon Donovan. But not nearly as hard as marking them and Becks and Magee and 2012 Juninho. You know that when Sarvas is the third most productive offensive player on the team you are in trouble. And IMO that's the main reason we aren't the dangerous team we were last year and are a long shot to win the Cup for the 3rd time in 2013.
all great points here. Although I clearly don't have the amount of time and dedication you've shown to have researched all of this, I did enjoy reading through it and much of it made common sense. Of all your points though, losing that offensive threat, Mike McGee, resonates more to me than anything right now. Just imagine what it would be like right had he still be on our squad?
If we make it to the postseason, I consider that a bit of a miracle. If we somehow go all the way and win it, that would be an even bigger miracle. But the doubters who sell LA short will have to reconsider their opinion if they get stood up.
So basically Magee is the difference? Ohh, that's gonna chap some hides. Another thing: last year, we didn't have Omar for the first part of the year. Remember David Junior Lopes? This time we've had him most of the year. So the difference is that instead of the defense tightening up at the end after giving up a ton at the first of the year (which is how it went) we have just limped along pretty steadily leaking goals.
Rep for the work. Not sure we can completely wipe the defense under the table for a whole host of reasons (with DP dollars I expect Omar to be better, the late goals are less easy to recover from if you come out flat then the first 15 minutes, goalkeeping issues in the beginning of the year, Juninho's continual slow start to the season)...but it's hard to ignore this stuff too. You guys all know I hate bringing up Magee because it's done and dusted, but it's fair to say that we need the rest of our supporting cast to finish more, in particular the kids: Zardes and Villarreal, and having Rogers fit. We need more out of them. Hell, if Zardes just had a smidgen closer of a finishing rate we'd be in a better situation. One thing I will say is that Zardes has at least become more of a threat out left making the defense do some work. I saw that when I saw Yedlin go to town against NY, but he stayed back against us. That was partially because he was on the road, but it was also because we actually had an attack up the left. Zardes has learned to at least put a dangerous ball into the box occasionally. For me the bottom line is that I don't know if we have the time to wait for the kids to develop, or wait for Rogers' hamstring to get better. Keanovan and our set piece defending is going to carry us through the playoffs, or they are not. No clue. EDIT: It's not just Magee folks. It's losing Juninho's occasional long shots, and Beckham's threat too. Note that Magee was #5. Not #3. EDIT x 2: For a whole host of other reasons I also don't think this makes us a "long shot." I think all clubs have problems, and this is legitimately one of ours, but that other teams have other issues. I DO think it's a reason why we are not dominant unlike last year.
good post skydog. only thing i'd like to see is last year's D broken into pre-tweet and post-tweet. it feels like it went from terrible to lockdown as soon as we saw Omar comin', whereas this year has been consistent these 2 things. we go as Robbie and LD. no one else has stepped up this year, don't expect anyone else to in the playoffs. someone needs to get Landon more selfish. 50/50 shot or pass? unless it's to Robbie, Landon needs to shoot. I think the board kinda minimizes Becks presence sometimes. most of us, myself included, weren't terribly happy with the DB long ball, but other coaches always felt the need to mark him. it pulled defenses out of shape and left space behind. As much as Juni had to cover for him (and it was a lot, at times), there were just as many times where the other team left Juni alone to cover DB. not a coincidence that Juni's not scoring or even shooting much now. i'd even argue that wing play has been affected in that we had guys running on his first touch because he might spray the ball out there. dont need to look further than Franklin for evidence there. he's basically the same guy, but missing the 5 40 yard runs to the corner he used to get. i think most of all, the midfield is still missing an identity this year. we used to be, find David, and let him get it to the right place. what are we now?
I'm kind of amazed to find out that losing David Beckham had some kind of negative effect on the offense. In all seriousness, pretty good analysis. It's interesting that Juninho has somewhat fallen off the map. Seems Sarvas has replaced him less effectively as the more offensive CM?
agree that the loss of magee is a huge problem. defensive mistakes aside, we've essentially played with a two-man midfield as Zardes/Rogers/Franklin/Jimenez have been completely useless. you can fix a lack of concentration, but you can't replace the experience, the chemistry, and quality that mike brought to the table. not really sure what the fix is this late in the season, other than hoping for rogers to get fit, get playing time, and find some chemistry with Keane/Lando ASAP...
Sweet jeebus, if that's our best hope, we're screwed. I wonder if Bruce had it all over to do again, would he make the trade? 'Cause right now, it's looking like it might cost us the playoffs, the cup, or both. *sigh* Get me a padded cell.
I wonder how different our season would have been if we had acquired Frank Lampard during the summer.
Wanna be more depressed? Here are the stats on our D: With Jaime Penedo entrenched in goal instead of the uncertain Carlo Cudicini, LA's set-piece defending should be improved, but it is more than just a goalkeeper issue. For LA, an astounding 14 of its 37 goals allowed have come via the set piece, accounting for the most in MLS. LA was prevented from flipping the script with Boria's instant call of Robbie Keane leaning in an offside position on a last-minute free kick, but instead of berating the officials (how Keane escaped seeing yellow for dissent in that situation was bewildering), LA needs to take a look at itself, head to the training ground and plug its holes. Between its set-piece and late-game follies (only Chivas USA has conceded more than LA's 18 goals in the final 15 minutes of games), the two-time defending MLS Cup champions have a glaring weakness on which Western Conference foes Seattle, Portland and Real Salt Lake can feast. Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/soccer/news/20130930/mls-power-rankings-week-31/#ixzz2gS9Gytem EDIT: LA have lost 15 points this season by conceding 19 goals from the 75th minute on. (From MLSsoccer.com, one of these articles has the right number, but the conclusion is the same!)
^The fact that we have a stat that is anywhere close to a Chivas stat is repulsive. And they actually beat us on set piece goals allowed. Good lord. Gotta be fixed if we want to win anything. EDIT: And pray to god we don't get a ref that lets everything go without cards. That will kill us.
While I love Sarvas and Juninho equally, they are, IMO the same player. there is no such thing as a comparable replacement for Beckham. But in the middle we had a great combo of Becks and Juninho... Becks was stellar going forward and could also play a little D if necessary. Juninho played all the D and sometimes provided a rocket or two. Now with Sarvas we have two games that play non stop D and provide very little going forward( though i can't discredit their tenacity defensively, especially Sarvas, he is fun to watch) But because its to late in the season to do anything about the roster, we need to change where guys are lined up. We have to also remember the playoffs (if we get there) are GRINDS not shoot outs. LD provides more in that sense from the mid field. Just gives us a little more depth across the field and a little more stability on D. McBean actually can be useful in these types of games if he can provide the hold up play necessary to get LD involved... Also our depth really gets tested without AJ... Wouldn't mind ----------------mcBean------------ ---------------Keane-------------- RR/GZ-----------------------LD -----------sarvas-----juni---------- -duni-----leo/kofi----Omar------AJ ---------------Penedo------------------ That gives us a sub list of: franklin villareal courtois and either RR or GZ even Jimenez
In a league built around parity, winning a third championship in a row was always going to be tough, especially when the players we take in are not as efficient as the players we trade away. After two years of success, the coach becomes complacent, the players become complacent and even the fans become complacent. Closing the 'Fire Bruce Arena' thread was another bad idea. The solution? I don't know.. prayer? Match-fixing? Robbie Rogers coming out of the 500 year long deep freeze that took his career out of its planned trajectory into an orbit a thousand times more vast?! All of the above?
I'm hoping that this Galaxy team is channeling those Lakers teams with Shaq, that just went through the motions during the season and then put an a$$ whooping on teams in the playoffs
Or that MLS has decided it's time for Seattle to win a Cup... but yea that is an excellent analysis and even further reason why I keep preaching Landon in the midfield and Zardes up top. I'd say Zardes would prob score a few up top and it gives us a true goal scoring threat from the midfield. Also Juninho does need to take more long range shots on target to help take pressure off our front line.
Could we try this just for the goats or is that too risky given how we NEED 3 points? Or would Bruce even try a change this late? --------Keane - Zardes------- --------------LD--------------- Juninho - Sarvas - Courtois TD - OG - Leo - Franklin ------------Penedo------------ sub Jimenez for Courtois at the half? Any news on if/when Rogers will be able to go?
From SBI: On Tuesday, Robbie Rogers took part in training for just the second time since being sidelined with a hamstring injury on Aug. 20th. Since being acquired by the Galaxy for Mike Magee in May, the former U.S. International has played in nine league matches for the club. “I’m happy that I play here (with the Galaxy) and that I have my family here to support me,” Rogers told his club’s website. “I love doing this, I feel like I’ve immersed myself in the team and I love being able to train here. It’s frustrating (not being able to play), but it’s part of sports.” While Rogers doesn’t expect to play in Sunday’s match with Chivas USA, he is hoping to be healthy in time for the Galaxy’s match with the Montreal Impact on Oct. 16th.
id love to see that, been preaching that forever, a 4-3-1-2 would solve all our problems. The problem with this is Franklin doesn't have near the quality to provide true width for the attack, which is necessary for this formation. Lastly, I'd rather us use a tested and proven formula for this stage of the season rather than mix things up. Wouldn't mind LD at RM tho and Zardes up top and they can always easily trade if its not working throughout the match
Yep, this is true. And more specifically, not getting anything effective in return or otherwise replacing those guys' contributions. The LA Galaxy have rested on their laurels and not improved (or quite likely gotten weaker), while other teams have gotten much better. San Jose is sort of in the same boat.
why dont we get beckham out of retirement to help us on this last stretch for bare min salary? coming out of retirement seems to be a United players tradition...