Post-match: The Post Presidency :: Trump Faces The Music Thread

Exactly.., !

 

How else are ya gonna solve the Indian problem?

 

Is this good or bad?

“The prosecutors have sought approval from a federal judge to invoke what is known as the crime-fraud exception, which allows them to work around attorney-client privilege when they have reason to believe that legal advice or legal services have been used in furthering a crime.” https://t.co/NYxF7QIik6 pic.twitter.com/ogppskNkDT

— Bad Fox Graphics (@BadFoxGraphics) February 14, 2023

 

Boris is back? Where is all this going?

 

Short answer is bad. Very bad.

 

For Trump.

This is serious and one of the few legal "end arounds" for attorney-client privilege. They must have some serious dirt to take this extraordinary step.



For your reading pleasure:

https://www.justia.com/criminal/working-with-a-criminal-lawyer/the-crime-fraud-exception/

 

It will be fascinating to watch the GOP’s reaction to a Trump indictment….or multiple indictments.

They are shameless…so it would be incredibly easy for them to jettison trump. Turn on their media machine to reprogram their supporters to the next dear leader. Trump? “Was never a big fan…hardly knew him. I am shocked….shocked…to discover there was illegal activity going on”. Of course….it would have been easy for them to impeach him as well.

I just don’t know whether both sides of the GOP can pull together or whether this fractures the party.

 

That is precisely what will happen.
We saw a mini-version of it during the November election.

It will fracture the hardcore MAGAts, but the rest of the party will coalesce around...somebody-
DeSantis, Pence, Haley, maybe someone like Kasich comes out of his hole (his campaign website is still up taking donations!, although the latest update was June, 2021).

Fox will likely be "ALL DeSantis, ALL the Time," since they openly fellate the "strong man" persona, i.e., would be dictators.

It might also be why Haley took this exact time to announce her run for the Presidency. If/when the 'big guy' goes down, she can say she announced before and "was never really on the Trump train" (despite being Ambassador to the UN).

He will never "go away." I think we have seen that.

Of course, Tr*mp's death would be the best outcome for Republican at this point.
Note, I am not wishing death upon anyone, but you all know that is what the Republican Party is thinking.

They save face by not having their hero and savior indicted and convicted.
They get to maintain the delusion that he was there to "Make America Great, Again" and fought for "them."

 

I guess my other questions are

1)who will he endorse in exchange for a promise of a pardon?
2)what kompromat does he have on that person to ensure they follow through?
3)will he be able to keep his mouth shut about the deal or keep the group of people with knowledge of it small enough to keep it quiet?
4)how long would merrick garland navel gaze before authorizing a criminal investigation after it inevitably becomes public?
5) would public knowledge that the gop nominee has entered into a (likely illegal) agreement to pardon trump in exchange for his endorsement have any negative affect on GOP voters going into the 2024 elections?

 

That is my take, broadly speaking. I have been writing for a while now that I would bet against Trump winning the GOP nomination. Republicans aren't different from Democrats in wanting to WIN, big time, when the other party has the Presidency. And Trump is damaged goods. When the campaign gets going and there is a clear front runner who is not named Trump, I expect that candidate to attact a stampede of GOP voters who want the Presidency back and who believe that Trump will lose in a general election. It would be the same process that propelled Joe Biden in 2020, where Dems who might have well voted for Bernie, Liz, etc. just say to heck with it, this guy has the best chance of winning, and we MUST expel Trump.

 

I would agree with all of this if Orange Shit Clown didn't have children who think they are owed the presidency.

 

I guess it's that time for my annual "we got him now" post!

 

I think you have this backwards. Trump can absolutely give up his grip on the GOP. He's the head of a cult now, so if he leaves the GOP a sizable portion of his cult members will follow him and he will continue his grift.

The fact that Trump is the head of a cult is why the GOP can't quit him. If Trump leaves the GOP, his followers go with him and the GOP will lose them as voters.

 

As I understand the polling, Hailley jumping in only steals anti-Trump votes from deSantis-- 10 or 11%-- and so gives the nomination to Trump.

Lotsa time yet-- but that's a wisdom from a day when there was much more fluidity in the voters. If it is as fixed as it has been of late "lotsa time" makes little difference.

 

The theory I heard on the radio this morning is this why Haley is in the race- to take votes from DeSantis and help Trump defeat DeSantis.

Maybe a VP nod for her afterwards? Pretty much ticks every "box" if they are looking for some level of diversity. Female, ethnic minority, has some significant level of experience. She is seen by many as a "moderate" (i.e, not completely insane) Republican.

The test of the theory is to see if Trump comes out hard with the insults, as he has done with just about every single person who has ever dared to do anything that was not pro-him.
If he does attack viciously, the theory doesn't really hold water.
If he does not attack viciously, maybe there is something to it.

 

1. Whomever offers one. I find it hard to believe there are many Republicans at this point who would not offer the pardon.
2. Very little, probably none. He is all bluster and nothing else (unless Russia has something they would be willing to share). By the way, for the past 15+ years, bluster has been enough for him.
3. No, of course not.
4. Hopefully, Garland will be ex-AG by then. If Garland is still AG at that point, nothing will get done.
5. No, of course not. It would ENHANCE the candidate's standing in the eyes of the MAGA crowd and would almost assuredly mean the cult followers would vote for that candidate and not sit out the race if a "normal" Republican does get the nomination.

 

I was just going to edit my post to add that tidbit. Good job.

Frankly, I think if she was Republican nominee, she would stand an excellent chance and could be the favorite against Biden or many Democratic Candidates, in opinion polls, at least.

She would syphon off a couple of percent of Democratic voters. Not enough to win the popular vote (mentioned in her video), but probably enough to flip a few "battleground" states (f*ck you, Electoral College!).

The bigger issue would the wingnut arm of the Republicans turn out to vote for her or would they stay home or vote third party?

If Trump does NOT get the nomination (hopefully, because he is in prison or, waiting, sentencing), and a "regular" Republican does, which wingnut would run under the "American First" or "Liberty" (they do love that word!) Party?

 

As far as I know, and I'm not the most clued-in person, he hasn't came out swinging against her yet. With DeSantis he didn't waste much time.

And I have it in my mind that she consulted with him at some point. I'm sure that's not actual, but it's in the back of my mind somewhere.

 

Correct. DeSantis has not indicated he will run, but Tr*mp has been attacking him for a few months.

The was part of the theory I heard on the radio today.

 

I think it was somebody at Bulwark (was it that Longwell piece you posted?) said that she's the perfect candidate for that part of the population who is all in on MAGA but who doesn't like Donald Trump.

That Venn diagram is going to look a lot like the infinity symbol.