Deduct points? The team has absolutely no impact or control and white fans say or do. I think I’m getting in trouble and getting punished because of what fans are doing in the first place is ridiculous. Is the chant wrong?? Of course it is. But you can’t punish the team for it. That’s complete garbage. Do you want to deduct points? That is an awful idea.
I haven't updated any of the other teams's Elo since Round 1 of the GC, but if I drop to US from 1805 to 1750, the direct qual is 80-81%, so close but even a bit more then 10% absolute drop
That adds up to 155.0, which means it expects 43 games with winners and 13 draws, for a draw rate of 23.2 percent. Here is the draw rate in the six Hexagonals: 2018: 9/30 = 30 percent 2014: 11/30 = 36 2/3 percent 2010: 5/30 = 16 2/3 percent 2006: 4/30 = 13 1/3 percent 2002: 6/30 = 20 percent 1998: 13/30 = 43 1/3 percent Total: 48/180 = 26 2/3 percent Do you think that having more teams should decrease the draw rate because there are games between teams that are farther apart? If we would expect 26 2/3 percent draws in a Hexagonal and a little lower in an Octagonal, 23.2 percent makes sense. If the top four win all games against the bottom four, the top four would have 24 points without playing each other. If the top four had 3 wins and 3 losses against each other, they would all have 33, so 34 guarantees qualification. It is possible to have a four-way tie with 11 wins and 3 losses. NoSix posted the formula in the Statistics and Analysis forum in 2008, and I looked it up. Here is what he said: "Getting back to the original question, given a round-robin group (each team plays each other team home and away) where m teams advance and n teams do not, the required number of points to clinch advancement is given by: {[(m+n)*(m+n-1)-(n-1)*(n-2)]*3/(m+1)}+1" For automatic qualification, m=3, n=5, and it becomes {[(3+5)*(3+5-1)-(5-1)*(5-2)]*3/(3+1)}+1. That becomes {[8*7-4*3]*3/4}+1, which becomes 44*3/4+1, which is 34. The Hexagonal required 22 points to guarantee qualification, which was 2.2 per game. 34 is 2.43 per game, and it is going to be more because more teams are competing for the same amount of spots. I calculated how many points would be needed to guarantee qualification from a single round-robin group of eight with three automatic spots to see if it would be half of 34. In a single round-robin group, the top four play three games against the top four. Since that's an odd number, they can't win half of those games, so the most even distribution would be if all of them went 1-1-1 against each other and 4-0-0 against the bottom four to finish with 16 points. That means 17 points would guarantee qualification, which is half of 34
Good observation about the draw percent. I was already aware of this. I don't think it's anything particularly in the Ocho vs Hex, it's just that the Poisson is never going to be a perfect fit for goal scoring. I always check that, and the 23% vs 27% is close enough for me to use it, though someday I might work on improving it. So, we need 34 to guarantee direct advancement. I'm going to hit refresh a bunch to see if I can get closer...
I'll be shocked if you get a simulation with the top four having 33. Applying the draw rate to the 44 games where one or both teams finishes in the top four makes a 1.239 * 10^-28 probability of those 44 games having winners. That's without requiring the top four to beat the bottom four in every game and without requiring the top four to get three wins and three losses against each other.
I hope the players and Gregg get a chance to watch the absolute shellacking the US women took today against Sweden. The idea that "oh, we have the most talent and can just show up and win" never works. I'm not saying the women had that attitude necessarily, but it's still an opportunity to be reminded, as the men head into matches that actually, really, honestly finally "count," that Elo points won't win a single game. Instead, gameplan (including --are you listening Gregg -- adjustments during the game), focus, effort and execution are the only reason the team will get results.
Getting word FIFA has denied El Salvador's request to play World Cup home qualifiers in the United States because of crowd limitations in San Salvador. Awaiting further details ... #usmnt— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) July 22, 2021
I really have to wonder why FIFA would care if a team voluntarily chose to play a game outside of its home country. Given FIFA makes every decision through the lens of “how much money will this make”, I fail to see why this would cause FIFA to receive less money.
Fantastic stuff! Does that formula account for the possibility of draws? 34 seems like a high number compared to historic Hex numbers. Was wondering if the formula is counting all games with a winner and loser.
True. I think the women were more like the USA in 2018. They have many players on the downslope of their career, coupled with an arrogance rightly won. Contrast that with the current USMNT. The players are all on the upslope of their careers and have serious motivation to take every possible point. If they had somehow tied T&T late and qualified, you might have a point. But Pulisic will be out for blood. The women won the last two world cups and the game was kind of a dead rubber. Upsets happen and ELO is just a simulation. But I think the guys will be super motivated and hopefully the coach gets out of the way.
I had no idea FIFA had any say in that. Is it deemed too advantageous to the US? FIFA doesn’t understand soccer in CONCACAF does it? P If they aren't, it won't even be due to prior successes, it'll be because they kept hearing how big the talent gap between them and their opponent was. I hope they don't read BS.
I would imagine it’s because it gives the US an advantage, not just over El Salvador, but everyone else in the hex who has to play at El Salvador.
I think what changed here is the situation on the ground in El Salvador. They're now apparently talking about letting vaccinated people into home WCQers. If teams are able to host home WCQers, then they should do so.
That's always one of the issues typing on my phone - I make my messages too short. You're right - if El Salvador is allowing some fans (i.e. relaxing restrictions), then they should play in their home country. I was thinking FIFA would prefer a full stadium elsewhere compared to a limited crowd in the home location - especially if they knew the team would still have a good advantage with the crowd like they would have in DC. And I admit it - I'll always get a dig in at FIFA whenever I can!
Honestly I feel like they’ll be able to lobby the government and get a good atmosphere in their own country. I’d rather get them with a full strength crowd and get our boys the full experience.
#USMNT will play its second World Cup qualifier against Jamaica on Oct. 7 in Austin at Q2 Stadium.— Paul Tenorio (@PaulTenorio) July 23, 2021
Any chance of getting tickets if you're not in a supporter's club? US Soccer announced a lotto process split between several US/Austin supporter's groups for tickets. Don't really want to join a club just to get a ticket, but mildly considering heading down to Austin for this one if I can get two tickets...
Joining the club is really pretty cheap compared to the overall cost of going to the match - tickets, travel. lodging. Just join AO and be done with it.