I don't think it's really one depth chart. Jesus is one kind of striker; Vazquez is completely different, and I don't think either are good enough that fit isn't a major part of why they'd be selected at this point. I think it's a big reason why Ferreira made the Qatar roster -- because he was a change of pace for a coach who was seriously considering multiple times to use something false 9-ish and put the scoring on the wingers. I'm not saying this is the right way to think about it, but I don't know that Pepi was ever in contention with Ferreira; I think he was competing with Sargent and Wright. And in that context, Berhalter's comments about size, physicality, etc make a lot more sense. Because of this, I do think Ferreira has dropped down a bit in part because the false 9 is pretty dead. We did it before Balogun's commitment, and with that and Pepi's continued development, the striker position doesn't look great, but it doesn't entirely look like we need to run out Reyna or Ferreira at the false 9. I also think that it's worth noting that for the World Cup, some of the decisions clearly leaned to size, strength and experience relative to other rosters. And I expect that for Copa as well and less so for CONCACAF-only comps. Either way, I think it's weird to see Ferreira behind Dike on depth charts. Dike has barely played over the last two years and while he has some great positives, he's the least well rounded striker on these lists.
I don't think a 9 that passes to goal scoring wingers is ever out of the playbook as long as we have Pulisic as our best player.
When I list Dike ahead of him, not on my perceived Berhalter depth chart but my own, it's because I think Dike can play striker in international competition. If we had to throw a guy out there against a non-concacrap foe with any size, and Pepi, Balo and Vasquez were unavailable, I'd go with Dike before I'd go with Ferreira. Now is that going to happen? Nope. Berhalter didn't appear to rate him when he actually was healthy, now that he's missed nearly 3 straight seasons with never ending injuries, he's even less likely to be in Berhalter's consideration. I would imagine he's 7th or 8th on the striker depth chart for Berhalter while he's probably 5th or 6th for me (I have Ferreira ahead of him for concacrap, and Dike ahead of Ferreira for outside concacrap). So that's the only reason you see him there for me. It's also worth noting, he's basically not been looked at both because I don't think Berhalter rates him AND he's been injured over and over and over again. I think you're pretty much right about everything else. Don't disagree, and its not like you're wrong about Dike either, I just need to explain why he'd be there for me and isn't for Berhalter. But yeah, for the USMNT, he's not as irrelevant as Hoppe but it's close.
I think with the 9 position a lot of it has to do with the player who has the most self confidence in himself at the time the roster is decided. You want the guy who's going to want the ball and take shots. So the 9 spot can probably be the most fluid of them all.
Dike's just got too many can'ts for me: doesn't seem like he can do 90, can't really defend, can't use his left foot, can't get shots off quickly, and so on. He's big and strong and fast and he's pretty good in the air and when he gets a shot off it's a rocket, but I think he's somewhat half dimensional right now.
I agree. But he's also only had a few years of professional playing. Hopefully if he can stay healthy he can develop other parts of his game. Because we've got no one else who has his combo of physical size and athleticism.
Everyone's over thinking it. It's against Jamaica? Well they're in the Caribbean so it's so obvious who should get the start. Do I have to say it?
Form is really important to Berhalter. Certainly much more important than for this board. We've seen him drop a lot of players we were certain were favorites. He also dropped Pepi for poor form although just about everyone agrees it was a mistake. Right now his list is probably Pepi, Balo, Sargent, Wright, Vasquez and only then Ferreira. That could certainly change by the Copa. This is really as it should be for spots 3 through 10 with only Balo and Pepi being a notch above IMO.
He didn't drop Pepi for form. His only argument against Pepi that made any kind of sense at all was, well, he didn't rate the Netherlands, period, but since then he's called in Dest, Tillman, and Pepi so, it doesn't make any sense. The form argument dies right here, as I've posted before: What were Pepi's production #'s before the deadline for naming the roster? In his first 9 games for Groningen (8 Eredivisie and 1 League Cup Match) he scored 6 goals, and added 2 assists, just to underline it, in his 10th game, a couple of days after the worst announcement of his life, he scored again, making it 7 goals and 2 assists in his first 10 matches for Groningen. Well? Did he poor in the goals and get skunked otherwise? It turns out, nope, in those first 10 matches he was only skunked twice. So the Pepi exclusion remains utterly obtuse, to this day, he made contradictory statements about it as well (in one case suggesting it was about Pepi competing with Ferreira for a spot, in another case mentioning the comp was Sargent, and also mentioning that the league was a bad match for what we could expect in the WC (which was odd since the Dutch were always the most likely opponent in the knockouts, and the opponents across the board had either great size, or good to average size, not ideal for Ferreira (even with his Caribbean conquests). I don't think there's an answer there, or really anywhere. We'll never know why he left him off, though I think the simplest answer is the right one: He was lazy as hell in his thinking, and focused more on Pepi's swoon in Augsburg where he earned only a handful of starts (people forget he didn't score there at all yes, but he also barely played, and only very rarely started matches there), and his swoon with the senior team where after a blistering start against Honduras and Jamaica, his play became more middling to erratic, with no goal production, and uneven at best performances. That's the only argument that makes sense to me. He hadn't score for the US in a year, didn't score for Augsburg, Ferreira was productive for the senior team (admittedly against totally bunk competition, and not against the tougher competition and he tailed off yet again at the end of the season), and maybe he went with the hot hand who wasnt actually hot? I don't know, it just never made sense because the hottest striker in the pool in the fall of '22 was Pepi, not Pefok, not Sargent (who cooled and was shunted back to the wing), not Ferreira who did little yet again down the stretch, I guess you can say Wright was hot, he was, but Pepi was the one guy producing a goal contribution per start essentially which made the exclusion utterly mystifying. As for Berhalter going with hot hands and form? I don't really agree. I think he's more a vividness bias guy to quote Matt Kelly at playerprofiler. If you're an edge guy, and you have a horrific performance, you're probably gonna get bounced out of the pool. If you're a locked in starter, you're probably gonna get forgiven screw ups, or like Weah, ice cold form for club. Think of the guys that made vivid screw ups or crap performances and how quickly they disappeared: Trapp, Bradley, Yueill, Lovitz and friends from '19, the pile of wtf moments from Bello, and McKenzie and others in '21, Lletgett's horror show match at Panama, Zardes in qualifying (own goal+), JAB's horror show in Window 1, Sargent's horror show in window 1, Pefok's blown sitter against El Tri in window 5. I tend to think he gives people a quick hook when he's already a skeptic and something vivid happens, or if a guy has slowly played himself out of contention (say Arriola vs weah, kind of). Since he's an analytics guy, maybe thats some of it too, I honestly don't know. But I don't think it's hot form, because guys like Aaronson, Pulisic, McKennie, Weah, Ferreira, Sargent, just to name a few have been ice cold, and still gotten love. I tend to think he has his biases like anyone, and when he sees something that underlines, italicizes, and bold types a bias, he acts. But that's just a hunch based on what he's seen. With a guy like Pepi, it's different, I dont know wtf happened there, and I tend to think the answer is one of two things: 1. Greg Velasquez at scuffed calls his, his penchant to be "too cute" periodically. Overthinking something, or underthinking it because he's taken by an "idea" and getting too cute when something should be obvious ("not only should Pepi be in the pool, he should be starting"). 2. He overreacted to Augsburg, and the window 3/4/5 lack of production with the senior team, and underreacted to his sudden explosion of productivity immediately after arriving in Groningen. I tend to think it's a "sign" that this might have been happening the summer of '22, he left Pepi off of that summer window, which should have alarmed us all more, a la leaving Sargent off in '19's Gold Cup, but none of us thought he'd be stupid enough to not have him in the roster for Qatar, we were all panicked that he might be stupid enough to start Ferreira over him, we weren't afraid of him actually leaving him at home, for all of us, that wasn't even considered a possibility. Now people try to figure out why, but that's assuming it was rational, when it wasn't, it was idiocy, always was. Simple as that.
I think that no matter which forwards he took they wouldn't have done much or anything and someone would be second guessing him. They just weren't very seasoned yet no matter who he chose. Since he started Ferreira in the Netherlands game because Sargent was hurt then perhaps he saw something in some of the opponents that he thought he could exploit with a false 9. Sargent was his first choice but he brought a false 9 backup in case of injury. I guess a reporter could ask him but I don't think we'll get a truthful answer until he's no longer the head coach as he still has all of those same players and almost every coach is going to coach speak.
Form is important to every international football manager...........................unless its Ronaldo or somebody undroppable. The biggest thing to me about March is that the Euro guys will be in-season, and the domestic guys will be only getting started. So for me, Jesus isn't really in the top 5 of options anyway. If Berhalter takes 3 guys it'll likely be Pepi, Balogun, and Sargent. But so far this cycle, he hasn't actually picked a 3rd forward, so.................... if Ferreira (or any other MLS forward) starts the first half of the MLS campaign on absolute fire, then Copa America can be a consideration. People will always bitch about something. We want a pool big enough that decisions have to be made, and coaches will be judged on those tough calls. If Berhalter had left Wright or Sargent off of the roster, people would have complained about that too. The guy playing at the highest level was actually Pefok for a Champions League finisher in the Bundesliga. When folks look at our poll on forwards prior to the World Cup............................Ferreira finished in 1st place. Based on 2022 performance, the majority of Big Soccer posters had Ferreira in their squads too. He was the incumbent, so to speak. There was a game of musical chairs in 2022 as Berhalter looked for guys, and Ferreira was in one of those chairs as the fall of 2022 was approaching. Just the way it is. I once went back to the World Cup roster prediction thread, and posted the rosters of people who've subsequently bitched about Jesus Ferreira. They too.............mostly had Jesus Ferreira in their squads.
This is something kind of off the radar. He had a groin injury (don't know how long and if it was a problem last fall) but he re-injured it in the Miami game on a free kick. Getting back to 100% may not happen for a while.
Oh I mean Dike just because he’s had a string of injuries. It’s not really worth thinking about his spot on the depth chart until he can be healthy for a bit.
re-reading that I see I got that wrong. Just shows that any of our players can get injured so having all of these choices is actual;ly a good thing. there's plenty of time for all of them to improve and make it impossible not get picked but of course only two or three will.
and perform. And honestly, I think we should forget about it entirely until the second half of '26. I don't think Berhalter rates him, and even if he does, he doesn't rate him as a top 5 guy in the pool.
I think Berhalter rates players based on how they fit with what he's trying to do. A different coach might have different tactics and choose others and then someone would be mad at that coach form leaving out good players who don't fit what he's trying to do. Dike isn't going to press, or play amazing passes to Pulisic and Weah but if he starts being an unbelievable scorer I think Berhalter would alter the team's plans and include him. He kind of did with Pefok until he cooled off. Dike needs to get healthy and score so much he goes to a top 4-5 league team and score more.
I'd normally think that's a possibility, but the problem is, we don't have much time. Balo and Pepi have clearly locked onto the top 2 gigs, Sargent is humming for the first time in his club career the last 18 months other than the injury, Wright is officially usable at least as a club player, Ferreira's always Ferreira (lots of goals, lots of assists, playing against crap opponents, untested against quality), Pefok suddenly woke up a bit. Dike's been largely out since the summer of '01 other than some months here and there. When can he break through? There's no way he's getting an invite in spring or summer of '24, which leaves fall of '24, and '25 to make an impression unless injuries hit. I'm just skeptical. He just had terrible timing with injuries because post-covid, we had to reinvent the striker position with Altidore and Wood shoved into retirement, and Zardes sooned to be kicked out the air lock. So there was an opening in '21, and he was somewhat promising before getting hurt in the Gold Cup and then, basically a black hole since. And since then, Sargent, Pepi, Ferreira, and Balo have layed claims, while Pefok and Wright have done business periodically in Europe for Pefok and consistently for Wright, and now the position looks nothing at all like it did in 2021. Its loaded with accomplished guys playing in Europe, and Ferreira. It's not a barren wasteland anymore. I get that technically there's an opening fall '24 through winter '25-'26, but that's not really a lot of time for a guy based in Europe to grab an injury related opportunity and run with it. March, Summer, Fall windows of '24 and '25 and that's basically a wrap. I suspect there's next to no chance barring an injury apocalypse.
After Pepi and Balogun, the whole thing is wide open. And frankly, Pepi and Balogun aren't playing so well in club soccer that their slots should be automatic. None of them, and I mean none of them, are distancing themselves. Ricardo Pepi has played 200 Eredevisie minutes this season. So if Dike gets hot? Sure. Why not? Ferreira? Sure. We're open to anybody performing well.
I'm a broken record but for my money, it's Balogun and then Chef's choice. Nobody else has any iron claim from their work at club or country. Wright may have turned into the 1st backup winger the way he's going and Sargent is doing well in the Champo.
Balogun has scored 4 goals across all competitions. I like him, and I'm calling him up for the Nations League too. But its not like he's in great form and should automatically be a USMNT selection. He's not Kylian Mbappe. Count me as somebody who thinks scoring goals for Norwich, West Brom, or friggin' Coventry in the Championship doesn't automatically put a forward ahead of a Liga MX or MLS guy. I don't have the inferiority complex required to believe that. If Berhalter takes Vazquez to the Nations League over Sargent or Wright, I'm fine with that decision. Its such a "6 of one; half dozen of the other" scenario. The MLS guys aren't as in season as the rest, so I don't expect them in March. Ferreira is also out with a groin injury right now; he's even further behind.
Pepi's playing great. Balo has fallen off since last year, but it's not bad. Pepi has an immovable object in front of him pouring in goals and assists while PSV has maybe their greatest club season in decades and decades. His minutes reflect the reality that a coach is unlikely to move off a system that has produced an undefeated Eredivisie season, and their first run to the CL knockouts in eons. What he's done with his minutes is telling (goal or assist every 60 minutes is fantastic). Balo's 8 goal contributions is fine for 900 minutes, especially when you consider his missed penalties would more typically put this at 10 goal contributions in 900 minutes. He's fallen off, but he's still Balogun. None of the other guys are really all that close to that beyond maybe Sargent with Norwich (a goal every start at striker) but even that is being done in the championship, which is a bit of a mess in terms of style of play and transferability.
I'm sorry. I'm just not totally as convinced that Pepi's place is as unassailable as other folks believe. [As an FCD guy, I'm a Pepi fan of course.] Pepi has played ~200 minutes in the Eredevisie this season. So "playing great" is in the eye of the beholder. His 4 goals for PSV in the Eredevisie have come against Heracles, Almere City, NEC, and Heerenveen. If I'm looking at the Eredevisie table correctly, those aren't exactly the best teams in the division. I can say the same thing about Pepi as I said about Sargent. I don't count a goal against an awful Eredevisie team like Heracles more than a goal by Vazquez for Monterrey or a goal by an MLS guy like Ferreira. Yes..............there's like that one goal against an exhausted,10-man Sevilla in extra time. It was an important goal and well-remembered. Great. Again, I'm calling Pepi up for the Nations League too. But he's actually not had a very productive year. Neither has Balogun. They shouldn't be automatic selections. We do have to call up somebody, though. I know I'm alone on my soapbox.