Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

You know how a few months ago, Iran and Pakistan were bombing each others terrorists groups.

This kind of feels the same.

 

According to Israel's Army Radio, presumably trying to explain all the intact Iranian missile boosters scattering the Negev desert visible to ordinary people in the area, it was the American interceptions that were really poor. 25% or 2 out of 8. The Israelis claim there own system intercepted, if not 99%, but at least 90% of the Iranian missiles.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-799335
Only 25% of US interceptors succeeded in Iran attack - report

Only two out of eight US interceptors succeeded in hitting Iranian missiles during the drone and missile attack that targeted Israel in mid-April.https://t.co/5tySHN5k4y

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) May 1, 2024

 

The Israelis want to show they will not be bound by the "new equation" and red lines asserted by Iran in Syria, but their strike latest Syria has avoided the Iran backed forces in Syria, hitting assets of the Syrian state instead. The Israelis will eventually and gradually work back to their pre April routine, except I doubt they will attack any actual Iranian targets and officers in Syria as they had been doing after Oct 7 in particular. Attacks on Iranian backed militia forces in Syria, however, will in all likelihood eventually resume even if the Israelis will be at pain to make sure they don't miscalculate this time.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-799678
Eight Syrians injured in first alleged Israeli airstrike since Iran escalation
Initial reports indicated that several people were injured in the alleged Israeli airstrikes.

 

Reports pouring in that the president, Ibrahhim Raisi, has been involved in some kind of helicopter accident near the border with Azerbaijan. The foreign minister was also on board.

The reports speak of a “hard landing”, which isn't good, but the Iranian term for crash has reportedly also been used. Neither the IRNA news agency or state TV offered any information on Raisi’s injuries, if any, but prayers were requested for the safety of the president.

It's a religious regime, so it would be advisable to avoid reading too much into the prayers angle but it doesn't look good at all..

 

Let’s try to resist indulging conspiracy theories that have no evidence.

 

From the Guardian, citing news agency reports:

Unnamed official: Helicopter crashed in mountain terrain in heavy fog
The helicopter carrying Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister crashed as it was crossing mountain terrain in heavy fog, an unnamed official told Reuters.
“We are still hopeful but information coming from the crash site is very concerning,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.​

 

For various reasons, it seems very likely that the helicopter suffered a catastrophic incident. The weather conditions (extreme fog) in a mountainous area make it possible the helicopter somehow crashed into the mountain and suffered an explosion. But terrorism/sabotage (whether carried out by foreign or domestic elements) causing a sudden explosion, seems quite possible as well.

For now, I suspect Iran will be managing the news to slowly prepare the public as it tries to determine the cause of the incident and as it decides if and how to handle any transition. But suspicion of any Israeli role, particularly given the strong presence by the Mossad and the Israelis in Azerbaijan, is certainly an issue on many people's minds. If any Israeli link is discovered, the "inevitable war" in the title of this thread will become inevitable indeed and the real question will be if the US would also get itself involved?

 

Gotta blame the Jooos somehow.

 

Because of the sudden loss of communication and disappearance from radar with a helicopter that was equipped with various GPS, satellite, and other means to give track of its whereabouts.

 

It isn't. The presidency is important in the Iranian system, but its powers are mostly domestic. De jure the foreign policy, military, foreign intelligence and internal security structures report to the supreme leader. De facto they always do. Comparisons between the American president and the governor of a state or a corporate Chairman & CEO versus the COO are commonly used.

If someone wants to take out a key figure in the political leadership, the President would not be particularly high on the target list.

 

It could. I am not ruling that out.

 

But who put the mountain there?

 

So had Kobe Bryant's helicopter.

I've got some familiarity with the area from the Azeri side. It's (alpine) mountainous, with sometimes sharp variations in elevation ranging from 2,500-4,200m, deep valleys and unpredictable weather with dense fog very common. Even Airbus and Boeing flights out of the international airport at Nakhichevan are subject to disruption due to the fog.

The place where the chopper came down, Varzaqan (near Julfa) is at the foothills of Mt. Boz Goosh (spelling??), which is 3,300 metres high. Occam's razor suggests some combination of pilot error and foul weather, possibly compounded by the pilots in the convoy being under scheduling pressure.

 

The latest comments and reports from Iran are more encouraging and suggest the speculation about an explosion might have been premature.

 

No explosion while the craft was in the air suggests no sabotage.

No explosion on the ground suggests some kind of mechanical failure, with the pilot(s) able to assert a degree of control on the descent/impact.

As you say, encouraging.

 

A photo of search and rescue crews at base camp. Note the density of the fog.

 

More positive news. From the Guardian:

Contact has been made with one passenger and one crew member who were on the helicopter, an unnamed Iranian official told state TV.
The official said contact has been made on several occasions.​

 

Iran's system works mostly based on consensus between often competing power centers. The president's power and influence are quite dependent on his popularity, personality, connections, and electoral mandate. Some presidents have been more influential than others. De jure, the president heads the Supreme National Security Council whose directives on foreign policy/national security if approved by the Supreme Leader are binding. He also appoints the cabinet ministers in charge of managing the foreign and national security affairs, albeit for these posts the tradition is to consult with the Supreme Leader before nominating the foreign minister, defense minister and intelligence minister. But the president basically oversees the state budget and manages both the domestic and foreign policy under varying degrees of supervision or (in many cases) competition with the Supreme Leader.

 

I listened to the official (who I think is one of president Raisi's executive deputies) make those comments to state television. If true, obviously explosion and sabotage will not appear to be the culprit.

 

Not sure how encouraging it is, I think the outlook is still pretty grim.
While the fact that contact have been made with a couple of the crew/passengers suggest no explosion has occured, a "hard landing" in a mountainous area or direct on a mountain is not optimistic. Any person that sustained a moderate/severe injury without healthcare access to attend those injuries, is pretty f*cked.

 

Possibly, but helicopters don't fly as fast as planes, even Cessna-type light planes. Impact injuries will therefore be relatively less severe.

Please note that "relatively" is doing a good deal of the heavy lifting there. And if the chopper rolls over after impact/landing all bets are off

 

I was a helicopter pilot in the Marine Corps. I have seen this movie before -- several times. Unfortunately for the crew and passengers I hold out little hope anyone survived. Based on the terrain and meteorological conditions it looks like CFIT (controlled flight into terrain).

And believe me, helicopters may be slow compared to most fixed wing, but they go fast enough that when they crash like this, there's typically little left but some wreckage and a black smudge on the mountain.

 

Can anyone make me understand why anyone, let alone a head of state, would fly with a helicopter in that weather?