Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

I honestly think the calculus has changed for the US, and for Iran for that matter, in light of recent events. Both sides know that a war that the US could easily get dragged into, against its own will, would be devastating.
The US is desperately wanting to get out of the Middle East mess and pivot to the East to counter China.
The US influence in the Middle East is in a free-fall, and in my view it is an essential strategic interest for the US to come to an understanding with Iran, and also put a little break on Iran's complete pivot to Russia-China axis. Especially since Iran's regional influence has reached to this height.

Nuclear deal is first step. There is a lot of politics that will be a stumbling block, but I think many sound minds in the US also realise there are strategic interests.
It will require a lot of political capital, and Biden might enfuriate his donors, but honestly as things are going now he will lose a lot of grass root support anyway and risk losing the election regardless.

As for a deal being done in 3-4 months, well a framework for a deal is already there, which is the original JCPOA. They are not starting from scratch, although I would imagine amendments would have to be made, seeing as how the original deal had sunset clauses that could be a point of contention and the level of enrichment. They US may be looking to extend the time for the sunset clauses, Iran would want to stick to the original, who knows. But I dont think it would be big enough issue that would render a deal impossible.

 

A deal with Biden is not worth the paper it’s written on. There are elections in the USA in a few months. If the Americans are lucky they will have more elections after that date, all of which will have the same protagonists involved.

America cannot be trusted to keep to its commitments. Iran knows it. Why would either Biden or Iran spend all that political capital to try and reach a deal only to have unilateral withdrawals whenever the political wind changes?

 

That’s what I said.

 

We have to get past politics and think about how to bring the region back from the brink of blowing up into a fullscale regional war, which could happen with the slightest miscalculation.

I cant find the article anymore, so this is probably a moot point.

 

Wait, found it.

Iran reportedly in contact with U.S. about new nuclear negotiations

Haaretz front page.

 

I’m not sure how to take your post. If your point is that Iran shouldn’t negotiate before the election because why go through the process if we know (and we do) that if Trump wins it will all be a dead letter January 20, you have a good point. Iran negotiating just tips their hand.

If you mean that Biden will renege on the deal after the election, I completely disagree.

One paragraph makes me think the former but the other makes me think the latter. Can you clarify?

 

In case of a Trump election win, I am not convinced that he will renege on the deal or the negotations (if the a deal has not materalized before the elections)

Yes, he has done so before obviously. But it would not be a foregone conclusion it would be an exercise he would repeat, considering what a bad policy it was the last time around.
Even Trump has checks and balances.

Would it really be that controversial to propagate for a nuclear deal as part of the election campagin, considering the region was on the cusp of a major regional war?
Would that not resonate with a lot of voters, that getting back into the JCPOA would make the region and the world more safe?

 

I don't believe there is anyone who seriously imagines a nuclear deal is even possible between Iran and the US. There are, however, those who quietly believe that just to have negotiations can help reduce tensions. They are wrong in their calculations. It will have the opposite effect both in the US and Iran. Iran is too toxic a subject politically in the US for negotiations to accomplish anything other than deflect responsibility from those in the US and Israel who didn't take the win Iran's capitulation by entering into the JCPOA represented. While those left in Iran to carry this heavy burden of standing up to the world's hegemon don't need to their efforts defeated once again from within.

Iran is in a pretty good position right now, while the pro Israel lobby is reduced to claiming imaginary things to cover up their embarrassment that their "mighty mouse" so clearly blinked. This is no time to start scoring own goals.

It is a simple law governing international relations that balance of power bring peace and stability and an imbalance creates the conditions for war. Once a balance of power in the region is established and recognized, and America's decades long policy of ensuring Israeli military superiority over its adversaries is defeated, we can start enjoying real negotiations and real peace in the region.

 

I can't dismiss the story as propaganda but, regardless, this points to an arena of warfare that Iran has worked on as well and needs to be cognizant about.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/04...es-that-can-disable-irans-nuclear-facilities/
Report: US deployed microwave missiles that can disable Iran's nuclear facilities

 

I suppose, given the threat of ballistic attacks by the USA, those facilities are deep inside mountains.
The effectiveness of such emp/microwave weapons depend on how transparent a mountain rock is for those radiations.
Dunno how reliable this is, but if those nuclear facilities are buried inside tens of meters thick rock, I wonder if any of those microwave produced emp can reach the installations.

6. Earth
Yes, even good, old dirt can stop an EMP- but you’ll need to be surrounded by many, many tons of the stuff! A few inches of topsoil won’t do the trick; you’ll need to be truly buried for this one to work.

Determinations vary significantly from experts, but your gear must be surrounded in anywhere from 6 to 12 feet of soil to get significant protection!

It sounds foolhardy but consider the practical aspects: If you’re on the far side of a large hill and the source of EMP does not have line-of-sight to you it could be enough to stop it.

Similarly, a shelter that is dug deep into a similar hill, mountain, or underground could present enough of a barrier.

No, you won’t be able to bury your electronics in the garden or toss them in a bag of potting soil and call it a Faraday cage, but you can still factor earth protection into your overall EMP readiness plan depending on your circumstances.

 

As an authoritarian society, Iranians have an excellent sense of dark humour and some decent jokes are doing the rounds, mocking the government and its claims.

This video is viral in Iran.

Iranians are making fun of the Islamic regime and Hezbollah for trying to attack Israel. pic.twitter.com/LnYGrWUml3

— Hananya Naftali (@HananyaNaftali) April 15, 2024

 

Liberal Persians are f********ing hardcore!

 

I am confident no missile impacted the S-300 battery at the Isfahan airbase which Israel allegedly targeted.

The "probable" damage to the "flip radar" deduced from high resolution satellite imagery (with no other damage or craters) is more consistent with a quadropod mini-drone getting through or, alternatively debris from an Israeli missile intercepted by Iran's Bavar 373 system (which might have been activated based on videos and sounds from above ground explosions). In either case, the Israeli operation was either more akin to a prank or, alternatively, an abject failure. The latter perhaps explaining why Netanyahu seems upset about the "disclosures" from US officials about Israel's purported strike.

Separately, no one has still assumed responsibility for the subsequent (very real) attack against the PMU in Iraq. All the initial triumphant declarations by pro Israel outlets linking the attack to Israel's retaliation against Iran and pro Iran forces, suddenly interrupted by the unusual affirmative denials by Israel (and then CENTCOM denying US involvement but saying nothing on Israel's role one way or another).

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-798355
US leaking sensitive intel. on Israel can jeopardize regional stability - editorial
American leaks on Israel-Iran tensions unsettle region, jeopardize regional stability.
By JPOST EDITORIAL

 

Some Iranian jokes mocking the government's claims about its attack on Israel. Some good ones in there, but be cautious reading too much into them: the regime is deeply unpopular and widely despised but the rally-around-the-flag effect could be very strong in the event of serious conflict

“By God, if they had thrown cucumbers, the casualties would have been higher.”

Dear ruling clerics, if you had thrown your [adult] diapers, at least Israel would have had some cleaning up to do.
A reference of the advanced age" of the typical senior cleric

We should have sent a shipload of Pride autos to Israel instead of these drones and missiles. It would have cost a lot less and killed more Israelis
The Pride, is a licensed version of the Kia Pride notorious for its lousy quality

"Erbil, Ilam, and Kermanshah were in the path of those flying water heaters, so why did the hit those houses in Shiraz and Mamasani?"
A reference to rumours that some missiles malfunctioned and crashed inside Iran

"Enjoying your journey is so, so important. The destination, not so much."

"They would have arrived sooner if they had taken Snapp."
Snapp is an Iranian version of Uber

The drones must have stopped somewhere to pray; otherwise, they shouldn't have taken this long."

‘Pahpad’ is too chic. We should call the drones ‘Pahnemat’ instead.
In Persian, ‘pahpad’ means drone. ‘Pahnemat’ suggests the drones were no more significant than a dog turd.

Question-and-answer the following morning
Q: Did the missiles hit the zionist targets?
A1: They're still stuck in [Tehran motorway] tunnel number 3.
A2: No, no, no! They were obliterated by the Darreshahr Iron Dome.”
The first answerer mocks the hours of notice the Israelis had, while #2 refers to an imaginary defense system which official channels supposedly argue is better than Iron Dome.

“We are not from Kufa and we will never let Bibi be left alone.”
The people of Kufa betrayed Ali (the first Shia Imam) to martyrdom. Regime supporters use this phrase to show that they will not abandon Ali iin the shape of the Islamic Republic. Referring to Netanyahu is a sarcastic way of showing support for Israel instead.​

 

On a mor serious note, AFP reports Iran is withdrawing its forces from southern Syria and replacing them with Iraqi militia members as well as closing offices in Damascus for fear of Israeli strikes. This has been ongoing since January but is claimed to have accelerated in recent weeks.

The militias have much lower training and have doubtful motivation in some cases, but they will be cheaper than the Iranians so quantity will make up for at least some of the lost quality

https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...esence-after-strikes-blamed-on-israel-monitor

 

OOOH! Who's the Israel Monitor?

 

Well, well, well. Israel did do some real damage with its stike on Isfahan. From the Economist:

When Iran and Israel exchanged drone and missile strikes earlier this month, the world was braced for a fully-fledged war in the Middle East. In the end both sides, having violently made their point, let matters rest. New satellite images now show how Iran saved face and backed down: it simply swapped one destroyed air-defence radar for a fresh one.
https://www.economist.com/middle-ea...an-covered-up-the-damage-from-israels-strikes
​

This is good for Israel: its Sparrow air-launched ballistic missiles can be launched from outside Iranian airspace, they can strike any place in Iran and Iran can't shoot them down. Since Iran is unable to defeat an Israeli attack similar to its own, Israel has reestablished deterrence against further attacks.

Nonetheless, in expending a small portion of its arsenal, Iran landed some blows of its own which cost Israel a very large sum of money in defending itself. It also provided Israel's partners with "proof of concept" of its contention that backing Jerusalem has costs and the potential to drag them into the conflict. In the nature of alliances, especially where a smaller ally (however capable) is concerned, Israel will be expected to take their views into much greater account going forward.

To use a boxing analogy, it's a win on points for Israel but not without costs.

 

???

 

An Iranian rapper who was at the big protests has been sentenced to death for those protests

 

Below is one of many recent example where the propaganda talking points by Israel's cheerleaders in America (and elsewhere) as opposed to the talking points from Israeli officials, clearly diverge (even if they both want war with Iran).

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6351382611112

The FOX interviewer wants to use leading questions to claim "mighty mouse" (Israel) was held back and restrained in its (alleged) "response" by outside pressure, especially from the Biden administration. The Israeli official clearly refuses the bait and instead mentions that Israel is already involved in a war in one front (Gaza) and that Iran is the new Nazi Germany - a menace that the "world" (led by the US) must confront. She then frames the issue in terms of "who will be brave" and eventually step up as "Churchill", lamenting that at the moment she sees a lot of "Chamberlains".

Like those so-called Israeli supporters in the US and the West who have been left disappointed that Israel was unwilling to step up to the plate against Iran, those radicalized dissidents in Iran who were looking to the Israelis as their savior against the regime, have also been left thoroughly disillusioned. No amount of propaganda will change what they saw.

 

None of what you have been posting lately qualifies as being "serious".

Iran had reduced and limited its higher level military presence in Syria previously. If anything, in recent days Iran has beefed up its presence there as Iran is now rebuilding the assets it had lost in Syria the past few months. In the meantime, other than a somewhat symbolic attack on a Syrian air defense radar carried out at the same time as their prank against Iran, what was previously routine Israeli strikes in Syria, have indeed quieted down. While Israel has specifically rejected the "new red lines" from Iran and the "new equation" Iran laid out post its strike against Israel extending the triggers for a direct Iranian military strike to include attacks on Iranian assets and interests in Syria, and even though I have no doubt Israel will begin to challenge that sooner or later, for now Israel has been thoroughly cowed in its actions in Syria. In fact, the one attack of consequence they had outside the theaters of active fighting (Gaza/southern Israel and Lebanon/northern Israel), namely a strike against the PMU in Iraq, they had to rush to disavow and deny being involved in.

 

The IRGC released this video showing aerial footage of the Nevatim airbase by Iranian UAVs right before, during and after the strikes. The video is of clear quality and shows that, contrary to the claims about all Iranian drones and cruise missiles being intercepted by Israeli and allied air defenses, that in fact the first impact to Nevatim before the explosions caused by Iranian ballistic missiles, was by a drone that hit the base. The video was taken by a 2nd UAV and can be seen below:

https://www.aparat.com/v/sAg5H?t=43

 

In the meantime, I'm sure that by now @yasik19 is familiar with the Israeli newspaper Maariv whose analysis indicated that besides Nevatim, Iran struck several other bases as well.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/2...esents-new-account-of-irans-attack-on-israel/
Israeli newspaper presents new account of Iran’s attack on Israel

 

Wow. Dutch woman arrested for assasination attempt on Spanish ultra right wing politician.
Vidal-Quadras was shot in his head and barely survived the hit last year november the 9th.
Suspicion is that Iran organized the hit.
So Iran is bringing the inevitable war right on the doorstep.