Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

Ben-Gvir tweeted, using terminology for "mishit" or "weak shot" in Hebrew.
He confirms the Israeli operation and mocks it.
This reduces Israel's plausible deniability while also undermining its deterrence.

As you say, Iran won't hit back without Israel taking credit officially. Iran could choose use this as official confirmation if they want to, but it would be out of character for Khamanei in particular. This has gone fairly well for Iran and cutting its quite small losses on this front is the smart option.

Bin Gvir shooting his mouth off could even be turned to Iran's advantage by it doing nothing: Tehran looks professional while the interior minister shooting his mouth off makes Israel look a bit unsteady

 

This is what I have read on the subject. Add perhaps $1B from US and company, the seized Israeli owned tanker, 2-3 days of work and school closures, and whatever turns out to be the damage done by Iran's missiles at the Israeli bases, and you end up with a pretty hefty price tag even not counting stock and oil market reactions...
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/2...ight-attack-costs-israel-1-35b-israeli-media/
Countering Iran's overnight attack costs Israel $1.35B: Israeli media
Israel's interception of dozens of Iranian missiles and drones overnight cost Tel Aviv up to 5 billion shekels ($1.35 billion), Israeli media reported on Sunday.

 

And now tell me how much Iranian drones and missiles cost?

 

Yes, in part, but we have some fundamental differences on our respective interpretation of what Iran did and what Israel did.

 

I haven't seen a real accounting, but somewhere among regime opponents, I saw a $100 million price tag for the monetary costs to Iran.

 

Let me translate this

Iran (and the likes of Russia) constantly lie about how cheap their stuff is and because the west is more forthcoming people constantly compare the propaganda prices of the likes of Iran/Russia with the real prices of western stuff

 

The relationship and dynamics between Iran and Israel has been like a roller-coaster. During the time of the Shah, Iran and Israel were close allies, and I have read some reports suggesting Israel was even advocating or to some extent helping Iran with its nuclear program and maybe even weaponization program. But I dont know the credibility of those reports.
Even during the first years after the Iranian revolution when Iran was in a ideological/revolutionary fervor that condemned Israel, the Israelis were actually persuading the US to ignore Iranian calls for Israels desctruction, and Israel indeed helped Iran with weapons during Iran-Iraq war. At the time, they perceived Iraq as the bigger threat that needed to be contained.

But somewhere after the fall of the Soviet Union and when Americas unipolar moment arrived, Israel made a shift visavi Iran. It perceived Iran to a mortal enemy. It probably had something to do with Iran's founding/training of Hezbollah, which repelled Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.

With US "omnipotence" and the height of US power and military bases in MENA, somewhere in the late 90s Iran was actually trying to mend ties with the US during the Clinton administration, but it never really materialized. Those overtures was made even during the Bush administration when Iran helped the US defeat the Taliban via its connection with the Northern Alliance, after which Bush reneged on his word of better relations and decided Iran was a part of the axis of evil.
My understanding is that Iran sent the US (via the Swiss) a letter of a "grand bargain", where Iran essentially offered the US to negotiate all outstanding issues of concern, and this included Israel. From what I understand Iran offered to open trade relations with Israel (but in secrecy), but never officially recognize it, out of fear what that would do to its own legitimacy
The US, which was under the influence of neocons and were pretty confident of themselves with the swift defeat of the Iraqi state, declined said offer. I think this was somewhere around 2003.

From Irans perspective, I think the calculus changed 2006, with the Hezbollah-Israel war. I know many Israelis dont look at it this way, but from Iran's perspective that war was a major strategic defeat of Israel and its deterrence. And it boasted Iran's doctrine of assymetrical warfare and they invested HEAVILY in that, by cultivating alliances with people/groups all around Middle East, but particularly in Iraq to oust US influence, and for Iraq to serve as a springboard for Iranian influence and soft power.

Netanyahu and interest groups in the US have been lobbying very hard for a major war between US and Iran. This would eliminate Israel's last remaining strategic rival/threat.

As things stand now, I dont think there is a semblance of a possibility of Iran and Israel becoming friends. But this is not due to ideological reasons (despite rhetoric from the Mullahs), but rather a good old strategic rivalry.

Sorry for long post.

 

Reported in filthy imperialist dollars again, hmmm? The Great Satan has corrupted you too!

 

I want to further explain my annoyance with this "cheap" stuff

Here is the thing I never get. Lets take Shahed. The latest Shahed-238 has a 50k Czech company motor

The Shahed-136 use a L-550 motor (or a copy of) which costs USD 12,000 to 17,000. Even if they copy it they won't be that much cheaper. For example Chinese copies of that motor cost $14k
We know Russia paid at least 193k per Shahed

We all know the Shaheds have lots of western tech in them. We know the price of that stuff. We also know that Iran gets this stuff through intermediaries.

I don't think Iran gets that engine at 50k and I am sure that they will pay more for it.

So how the hell is Iran building this stuff cheaper than the sum of their parts (again we mostly know how much this stuff costs) and why are people believing them?

 

The Shahed 136 drone engine (MD-550) is manufactured in Iran by an Iranian company (MADO and hence the MD prefix). The engine has been studied, taken apart, and examined probably more than any of its kind. Before various sanctions it used to be sold, among numerous outlets, on some Chinese affiliated website by a Hong Kong subsidiary of MADO. The engine started as a reversed engineered copy of the German L-550. But no doubt in my mind that the propaganda about the Shahed's cheap price tag is just that, except the propaganda emanated from western sources...
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_an...ussians_fill_it_with_the_wrong_fuel-6555.html
A detailed investigation into the following story shows that the declared cost of an iranian kamikaze drone of $20,000 is undervalued, to say the least

 

Yes but bill of materials is bill of materials
The people paid to make are paid cheaper but parts are parts. Copper has the same price everywhere

Also believe it or not sometimes these western companies make stuff cheaper due to high volume sales and because they too buy from other mass/specialized producers. And many specialized parts are made with very expensive specialized equipment that you would need even if the parts they make are cheap.

Iran does not have a make it cheaper button just because. Like the 50k motor I don't think Iran can make it cheaper

And I agree with that hence why I said in the past I do not like the likes Bloomberg or FT and WSJ.

Bloomberg and other "financial" papers were literally quoting Russian official figures that said the sanctions did nothing. Then the Russian were quoting Bloomberg saying see even the Western media says the sanctions are not working

You may be aware of someone else who does this stuff

 

Western sanctions hurt Iran's economy in many ways, but they have made Iran arguably the most self sufficient country in the world.

As for price and volume, those sanctions have also given Iranian industries a sufficiently captive base of demand in a country of 80-90 million. But one that still has to be qualitatively competitive. In the military field, because Iran's needs to face up in real (often proxy) wars against western systems. In the consumer field, because sanctions don't stop elicit import of western products but merely add to their price tag.

You won't like to hear this, but based on Iran's experience I expect Russia to indeed do alright despite sanctions. For now, though, due to sanctions, even Russian Aeroflot planes are getting their C Check maintenance done in Iran.
https://aviationweek.com/mro/aircraft-propulsion/aeroflot-airbus-a330-returns-c-check-iran
Aeroflot Airbus A330 Returns From C Check In Iran

An Aeroflot Airbus A330-300 has returned to Russia after undergoing C check maintenance in Iran

The C check marked the first time a Russian carrier had sent an airliner abroad for repair since the introduction of sanctions.

Western suppliers have been prohibited from… pic.twitter.com/TYvPpEB1H3

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) March 15, 2024

 

While Jerusalem was deeply disappointed by the Shah's overthrow, realpolitik soon took over and they willingly sold weapons and spare parts to Iran under the table during the Iran-Iraq war: $2 billion worth a year according to CIA memos, back when a billion dollars was serious money. Iran-Contra too.

Khamanei is known to have repeated on numerous occasions that hostility between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the USA is a matter of policy as well as principle: that there are material benefits to the Islamic state from a state of tension. It's not likely to be any different with Israel, which is smaller and has enemies in regions Iran has historically aspired to be the hegemon in.

How the people feel is another story. There is definitely a subsection that would really welcome a rapprochement with Israel and another sizeable chunk, especially in the upper-middle class professionals that likes Israel very, very much (or at least says so) because they hate the regime so much. E.g this video from mid-October

Iranian children were forced to “death to Israel” at school this week

They responded by chanting “death to Palestine”

pic.twitter.com/trC2J3DRww

— Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) October 18, 2023

That said, this looks like a fairly upscale neighborhood, so it may not be representative but there's this clip from October 8th

Iranian people chanting to the directors of the game who raised the Palestinian flag during a football match momens ago:
"Shove the Palestinian flag up your ass!"#IraniansStandWithIsraelpic.twitter.com/TMwYfoa9ns

— Persian God (@RealPersianGod) October 8, 2023

 

Some light relief:

Israel just wished Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei happy 85th birthday... pic.twitter.com/edxsaMSmKM

— Holly Dagres (@hdagres) April 19, 2024

 

Why did they have to reverse-engineer a German engine? I thought Iranians were brilliant. Shouldn't they be able to figure out to build a drone motor on their own?

 

A decade or two ago (might even be 3) a bunch of Dutch musicians decided to climb in a van and to go on a musical road trip from the Netherlands to Pakistan and show their adventures on tv. Their aim was to interact musically with the locals they met on their way to their final destination which they never reached. For some geopolitical reason they stranded in Iran, because they werenot allowed to cross the Iranian border into Afghanistan.
So in the Iran episode of their adventure they made music with Iranian mountain people and the accordion of one of the Dutch musicians was very popular. Somehow the subject of the songs he plays with it was about Israeli songs and to the delight of those Iranians he could play "hava nagila" and it was quite funny to see Iranians enthusiastically sing that song with musical accompaniment by the Dutch. They sang it far better than I did when I was in highschool.
So much for the war mongering rethorics of those days.

 

Erm, because everyone does it? Japan has developed "tweaking" - reverse engineering something, finding flaws & inefficiencies, correcting them and launching a better product at a lower price - into an art form.

The real question is how self-sufficient its resulting supply chain is. Not very is probably the honest answer, but everyone - including China - imports some components from someone

 

Iran invented reverse engineering.

 

Jordan is the weak link in the anti-Iran axis and is viewed as an integral piece in completing the encirclement of Israel in the so-called "ring of fire" strategy. It is also the platform that gives direct access to the West Bank.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-...ability-us-washington-hamas-gaza-palestinians
Caught between Israel and Iran, Jordan clings desperately to stability

Lacking any real legitimizing element to justify their policies and rule, the Hashemite Kingdom is also on the forefront of those who seek to distract attention from Israel by stoking anti-Iranian and anti-shia prejudice among Arabs.

 

Israel was fine being quiet. Iran was fine playing make believe. Why is the US stirring the pot? We are posting details that might force a Iranian retaliation.

A Senior U.S. Official has stated that last night’s Israeli Strike on Iran involved an Aircraft outside of Iranian Airspace launching at least 3 Long-Range Attack Missiles at an Air Defense Site that was Protecting the Natanz Nuclear Facility in the Isfahan Province of Central… pic.twitter.com/BjzF40irxM

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 19, 2024

 

He spok off the record FFS

If the Iranians want to do something, Bin Gvir's tweet is much more important. Probably enough in fact.

It's not always about what America says or does. You do know that, right?

 

So my initial gut feeling was correct, it was not UAVs. The IAF carried out a standoff attack from Syrian airspace with Sparrow, likely Blue Sparrow, air-launched ballistic missiles released from F-15Is.

Booster wreckage was recovered in Iraq 👇🏻 https://t.co/EZo1nTpXrs pic.twitter.com/5XR6Tv5iFu

— John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 (@John_A_Ridge) April 19, 2024

 

Video captured a significant explosion in #Babil, #Iraq, following a possible airstrike against a Popular Mobilzation Forces base. pic.twitter.com/CoskuqS3xi

— عـدم - ADM (@ADM_3DM) April 19, 2024

 

Well, it's on the record now.

It's not only about what America says, but it is about how the Iranian government is perceived by the world and its own people. It's an authoritarian dictatorship - it cannot be allowed to look foolish because being perceived as competent is the only basis for its authority. If that perception is cracking, they might lash out.

 

The Israelis had their agents inside Iran use 3 mini-drones as decoy targeting the radar facility at issue, while a long range air-to-ground Israeli missile fired from an Israeli aircraft outside aimed at that radar station (associated with an S-300 battery). The drones were shot down but the Israeli missile did damage to a so-called "flip lid- radar" associated with a S-300 battery. None of the S300 missiles or anything else was damaged.

For me, the damage from this Israeli operation was not meaningful and does not warrant a response by Iran, unless Israel officially confirms it attacked Iran. The latter is important because of the kind of "legal"/"diplomatic" cover Russia and China will need at the UN etc if Iran seeks to attack/retaliate against America's sacred cow, Israel, in response.