Are you just waiting for someone to ask what this means? I gather its some kind of rating system for the competitiveness of districts?
I didn't know what it meant, either. Copying and pasting in PVI R+11 into Google brought up a ton of accurate search results. Anyway, back to politics...
PVI is based off of a British-style national swing. If the electorate is D+4 and a Republican district is R+5, the expected result should be the Republican winning by +1. Cook is more complicated than that, but that's the way to read it. The note is that vulnerable Republicans are retiring while safer Republicans are running for re-election.
I used "PVI R+" and got a whole bunch of stuff about inclines. Possibly there was a true result in there, but it wasn't on the first three pages.
A very secure seat for the GOP, Virginia's 1oth, currently held by Frank Wolf, is going to be very competitive, and very very expensive this November. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...749-11e3-a0b9-249bbb34602c_story.html?hpid=z2
you mean someone else's unpaid interns are gonna be sending me letters "thanking me for my opinions but ..." instead of his? Joy. He'll likely be replaced by someone even worse who won't even bother to have someone reply telling me how much he disagrees with me (his constituent, but not one he cares about at all) - but still it'll be nice to get the bastard out. At least he did favor the federal gov't spending on local traffic infrastructure to some extent over his buddies.
He wasn't all bad, but certainly mostly bad. Bottom line, he was a reliable vote for the GOP dickheads in charge, and that is reason enough to toss him out. The articles have stopped mentioning how he promised he would serve no more than 10 years but then, once he got settled in, 34 years seemed better.
Gerlach out! PVI R+1. Fun fact: The Pennsylvania 6th was originally held by an Anti-Administration representative named Andrew Gregg.
McIntyre (D-NC) and McCarthy (D-NY) retiring. PVIs: R+11 and D+3, respectively. Should be a moderate GOP pickup in NC and a solid Dem hold in NY.
Jim Moran (D-VA, PVI D+16) and Buck McKeon (R-CA, PVI R+3) both retiring. To give people a recap, here's a map of all retiring incumbents (29 in all so far): 11 are Democrats, 18 are Republicans. Of the ten seats since I've started keeping track, the PVI overall is R+1.7, and it's been a 7 GOP 3 Dem split. While that may suggest a bunch of moderates retiring, it really isn't. Only a handful of moderates, such as Matheson and Gerlach, are stepping down...George Miller, Ben Kingston, and Steve Stockman are more the norm. Still, 30-40 retiring seats are average for the last few election cycles, so there may be a few more retirements in store.
NY21 back in play... http://www.pressrepublican.com/0127...651172330/Owens-says-he-wont-seek-re-election http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/15/n...of-new-york-to-retire-from-congress.html?_r=0
Waxman out. This is the strongest signal yet that the Democrats will not take over the House in 2014. D+11, so no change of hands.
My hope is that the Democrats hold steady or maybe gain a House seat or two in 2014 and then regain the majority in 2016 on Hillary Clinton's coattails. Is that plausible or is the House gerrymandered beyond all hope?
Is not going to happen, if the dems hold the same number of seats it would mark a great night for them. Butt I would put odds against it.
Assuming she does clobber the GOP nominee, the Dems would have a shot, yes. Even if she runs, we'll see if that actually happens. A lot depends on retirements though. It would be a good start if they could narrow the margin in 2014.
A professor gave me a good shortcut that he used to estimate the GOP control of the House in 2010. Take the prior ten elections' seat share for the party and average them together. That's what the Democrats should get. If you do that, the Democrats are slated to pick up 7 seats.