PBP: The GOP at New Hampshire:: 1/10/12 pre/in/posts

Dixville Notch and Harts Location on the board.

Romney 7
Paul 5
Huntsman 4
Gingrich 2
Perry 1

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/10/new-hampshire-kicks-off-republican-primary/#ixzz1j2K6aiYG

 

With 0.00001 of the votes counted I have declared Mitt Romney as the projected winner of the 2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary.

 

The state seal features a slave galley? Wow.

 

Heard in town: "Ok, who's the numbnuts that voted for Perry?"

 

Huntsman wouldn't win the Reep nomination even if he wins New Hampshire, and he's not going to win New Hampshire.

 

Assume this page will update throughout the evening.

http://www.wmur.com/new-hampshire-primary-extended-coverage/30132728/detail.html

 

So what happens if Huntsman finishes second, and Santorum fails to get the bump from Iowa and winds up more or less tied with Gingrich at around 10%?

Does that kills Santorum's momentum going into SC?

Is Newt back in it as the anti-Romney on the right?

For my money, any votes and attention Huntsman gets are almost certainly being taken from Romney, which would've made him that much more vulnerable in SC, had the right coalesced around a single candidate.

 

The real question is who will finish 2nd, 3rd and 4th

I say:

Paul 18-20%
Huntsman 14-16%
Gringrich 13-15%

 

Santorum likely won't get any perceptible bump simply because this is New Hampshire. New Hampshire doesn't reflect the modern GOP. The results tonight are going to be aberrant from that perspective.

Seems to me the only real questions going into tonight are:

1) Who survives?

2) Beyond winnowing the field, does tonight's vote matter?

I'm thinking one or two more people will drop out after tonight (Perry, most likely), but beyond that New Hampshire will not matter. There will be plenty of reasons to discount the likely very muddled results.

(As for Huntsman, depends on the actual number. But he's going nowhere in the mid to long run.)

South Carolina will matter a hell of a lot more.

 

Perry will stay for SC, Huntsman needs more than 10% to stay IMO.

 

I think it was such a foregone conclusion that Romney had this one wrapped up, that none of the candidates (besides Paul & Huntsman) put any effort or money. Perry's not out until at least South Carolina, maybe after Florida. He probably got a little bit of a cash influx after Iowa and that's why he didn't drop out then.

I can't figure Huntsman out. On the one hand he's put all of his eggs in New Hampshire, on the other hand he's relying on a 2nd place finish to give him a bounce. But even with a bounce it won't be enough to overtake Romney in places like Florida or Michigan. You know long-term he's not viable, so why would even sink a ton of dough into New Hampshire? My guess is that he's running for 2016.

True, unless Newt or Santorum try to claw their way through Florida.

 

If Perry walks away, as he might, with a few percent (or less), I'm not so sure. You can only lose badly so many times before you become irretrievably pathetic.

Perry nearly dropped out last week. I think he stayed in hoping Gingrich or Santorum would stumble badly. Neither has.

And I think your Huntsman number is low. He's probably going to need to break 15, which he might.

 

Perry further proved his idiocy by recently saying South Carolina and Florida was his "Alamo". Hey Rick, it was a really honorable stand we Texans took and whatnot, but we lost that battle.

Gonna go out on a limb (albeit a small one) and say Huntsman cracks 20%.

 

Personal Prognostication:

Romney: 36%
Paul: 19%
Huntsman: 19%
Gingrich: 14%
Santorum: 11%
Perry: 1%

And the whole thing is over in 11 days...

 

I see one of the democrats listed is:

Supreme , Vermin

 

You haven't seen him yet?



I think he'd be polling #3 in the GOP field right now if his politics leaned that way...

 

He seems like a more serious candidate than half the Republican field.

 

I actually think it's a big deal who finishes ahead between Gingrich and Santorum.

 

Live free or die!

 

And no surprises ... Romney wins.

Can Perry break 2%?

 

At this point, everyone who's in it now might as well stay in it through Florida...

Ugh..just saw an accidental extra-closeup of John Sununu's face. Yikes.