Folks, its officially all over: The Redskins lost their last home game, and Kerry is absolutely surging in the Iowa Futures Market http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html These have never been wrong before.
Skins have lost most of the season... blame it only upon a new coach and a bad quarterback nobody will sideline!
Actually, I understand the concept, but the symbols and columns in that chart are cryptic. And who is currently in the lead on that chart? By how much? If I'm reading it correctly, it seems that the following results are favored, in order of likelihood: 1) Bush wins but gets less than 52% 2) Kerry wins but gets less than 52% 3) Kerry wins and gets more than 52% 4) Bush wins and gets more than 52% Is that even close?
I find myself agreeing with one of your posts for the second time today.... Wow, I obviously need my common sense medication
.512 vs. .505 is not exactly "surging" but given how those numbers have been over the past two months, I'll take it for now. The Dem >52 number is moving more rapidly than the Dem <52 #.
I think there are four choices - Bush/Kerry and +/- 52%. Here's another link - this time to the symbols: http://128.255.244.60/WebEx/marketinfo_english.cfm?Market_ID=66
That's what I thought. Will be interesting to see if/when that changes. Edit: Jeez, I just checked it again, and it has already happened. Kerry L52 seems now to be the top choice. A Bush landslide is being thrown out the window.
Go with the chart: http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm It's easier to comprehend. Basically it's a dead heat.
That chart only goes up through yesterday. Joe is talking about the surge in today's rates for Kerry, in which he has passed Bush. That surge is probably due to buyers seeing the strong turnout early in the day, and maybe hearing the rumors coming from oil companies that Kerry was going to win. Though how "they" would know, I have no idea. Also, remember, this only predicts the popular vote anyway.