The coming boom in multi-eligible player recruitment

I'm not directly comparing Brenden Aaronson and Alvarado.

I'm merely saying that we can't treat it as a good thing to play for a top team in a bad league but then treat it as a bad thing to play for a bad team in a good league.

I understand what you are saying that if you play for Vizela then you probably aren't USMNT caliber, but I don't think thats true in all situations. I'm not out here advocating to call in any player who gets 5-10 minutes per game in an alright league.

We know Alvarado is a good player. What he needs is now to prove himself at a high level. I think starting week in week out for a few months in the Portuguese league is enough to say a player is ready for the competition level they would face with the USMNT. The level of the team may not be high, but at a certain point you can't ask any more of a player. He was great for the U-20's. He'd be going from almost no playing time last season to an instant starter this season. It's hard to ask for much more from a player than that 3-4 months from him, so I think he would earn a USMNT call up at that point. Still a big if that he's starting every week for Vizela.

 

Even if he starts every game, it only means that his competition is worse than him and we don't know how worse. It might be about the same, but older, it might be he is way better. And in that case there will be instant interest from top 3 clubs, and that's when he should be called for a camp. Untill then I'll call Gutierrez who is way more proved and has established floor, ahead of him, I might call Philly kids or Vargas. As I said Vizela is a minus for me not a plus.

 

Realistically, I think we'll all probably make our own judgements once he starts to play more. That will be dependent on his level of play. We all like him as a player, but you never truly know how a youth player will translate to the pro game immediately.

Relatedly, I haven't watched any FCC this year, and Vazquez obviously is putting up great stats. However, I didn't think he was worth much of a look with the first team since I thought I was acquainted with him as a player, but then I saw this video:



This stuff is always an eye test thing, especially for us on these boards. I don't think we can ever made sweeping statements based on playing time or team or league.

 

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You raise a valid point, but what are we talking about here to make that pertinent?
Are we comparing players, are we comparing leagues, are we discussing the best development options, are we talking about other issues? I think we're all using different issues and then insisting we're disagreeing. Vizela can be poor, in a league of good and bad teams, with LA Galaxy and most MLS teams better, but he was never offered a path or contract. So in the end he's playing alot of minutes on a poor team in a good league. All can be true at the same time, without just taking one aspect as the whole argument.

 

That's something that we don't know. And this is Vizela
https://capology.com/club/vizela/salaries/
Ferreira + Pomykal make more than theat whole team. A successful starter Alex Mendez makes $60K.
Quality of a player defined not against whom he is paying, but whom he took job from. Arguably the players on Vizela are sub USL level so becoming a starter there doesn't impress me at all.

 

You think the Vizela players are below USL level?

Ferreira and Pomykal were not making too much more than Mendez initially on their first contracts. They are on their second contracts. When Mendez gets his second pro contract he'll make more than he makes now. Players on their first pro contracts rarely ever make a lot of money.

 

About the same. I doubt Mendez is above that level. Vizela payroll is 10-15 times less than MLS teams. A garbage team. Nobody makes more than $160K. That's barely above minimum of the home signins.

 

Not exactly. Here's an example using that website you cited. Vizela finished 14th in the league last season. The team that is 14th place right now in MLS (combining both divisions) is FC Cincinnati. Their payroll of $12,137,000 is about 6.5 (6.49 to be exact) times bigger than the payroll of Vizela, which is $1, 870, 000.

Using that website, the top Portuguese clubs spend more than the top MLS clubs. We also know though that MLS clubs tend to overpay for players in ways that a club in Portugal probably won't, so even if we were to say that FC Cincinnati's roster is 6.5 times more expensive than Vizela's, is it 6.5 times better? It's probably better, but I doubt its 6.5 times better.

 

His Interview on Tactical Manager said he wasn't offered first team contract

 

I don't know how much better. But for sure they don't have Lucho Acosta. And Vasquez who had absolutely no hype untill this season is paid $300K, while 16 players are above $200K. And Cinci is a low salaries overachiving team.

 

Galaxy disputes that, and anyway he wasn't forced to have Klejban as his manager.

 

SPI (which is imperfect) has Vizela as the 201st best team overall and roughly on par with the Red Bulls and ahead of about 24 MLS teams. And if ranks Vizela as the 10th best team in Portugal.

 

That seems a lot more accurate.

 

SPI itself is an imperfect measure that has its own flaws, especially when comparing teams across continents, but it's what out there.

Now alot of MLS teams do have SPI ratings that are least fairly comparable to teams in the Portuguese league, and NYCFC and LAFC would be 5th and 6th in the Portuguese league by SPI rating. In total there are 9 MLS teams with a higher rating than the worst rated team in Portugal, and there are another 6 or so that are just slightly behind by rating. The real gap though is between the top 3 Portuguese teams and both the rest of Portugal and all of MLS.

 

If there are teams worse than the one with average salary $80K they must be pay for play. How exactly SPI compares American and Portugese tams?

 

Well that salary info may or may not be accurate. But their methodology is here https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/

The rankings aren’t foolproof, but they are a data point.

 

Comparing MLS teams and Portugese teams is largely going to be an interaction of transfermarkt values and then in league interaction.

Vizela's valuation is actually lower than most MLS teams, so I suspect what is driving it is reasonable results against real outlier transfermarkt valuations / teams with some European success, like Benfica, Sporting, Porto, etc.

Those teams have transfermarkt values in the $270M range, orders of magnitude above MLS. I'd imagine somewhere in the algorithm, Vizela is getting value for beating, tying or maybe only losing by 1 to a lot of these teams and it is dragging them up.

I think there's a good chance that having 1/3rd of the points of a team with a $270M valuation is more valuable to SPI than having 2/3rd of the points of a team with a $30M valuation. But I'd be pretty shocked if a mid-level MLS team got blown away by the Portugese league.

I use SPI all the time because it is literally the only even mildly objective measure out there, but the intercontinental comparisons are really fundamentally tenuous.

 

Comparing leagues like MLS and Portugal is impossible.

So what is a USMNT coach to do? Call up Alvarado to a camp and see what he has.
Pretty simple. If he's starting and doing well during the first half of the Portuguese season, I'd take a look at him early in a spring 2023 camp. We'll probably give some of the stalwarts of the 2022 WC a bit of a break in early 2023. Why not use that time to expand the pool and give youngsters a chance? Why not indeed.......................

Of course, he's more likely to be active with the U20s and U23s in the coming two years.

I just have no clue why anybody would have an issue with Alvarado getting a look. We call up players like Cannon from similar teams in Portugal. So.................

 

Yes, and that's U-20 camp. Otherwise let's call both Shashuas, Lederman, etc.

 

Yunus Musah is a better prospect than Folarin Balogun and England barely batted an eye when he committed to the USA.

Reality is England is absolutely loaded and unless Balogun scores 15 to 20 goals every season for a CL club he’s not going to be called in.

I’m optimistic

— MLS Buzz (@MLS_Buzz) August 14, 2022

 

I get it................................but England didn't want to lose Musah.
England blow as 18-year-old Yunus Musah commits international allegiance to the USA | Daily Mail Online

He had already made his senior debut for the US, picking up two caps in international friendlies, but was still on the radar of Gareth Southgate, who when asked about the youngster stated: 'We think he's a good player, that he's on a good trajectory. We'd very much like his future to be with us.'

Is England loaded? Sure. I guess so. But these forwards have been called up over the past calendar year. Patrick Bamford. Always hurt. Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Eh. Jaden Sancho. In the toilet since his ManUnited move. Marcus Rashford. Currently a mess. Harry Kane is about to be the wrong side of 30. The list goes on.

If I was Balogun I would be happy to stick with England thru the 2023 U21 Euro Championships, which are then their qualifiers for the Olympics. Then see what happens.................

Seriously. Its August 15th. If he wants a chance to make the US squad for the World Cup, he has to be at the upcoming camp. And if he's going to be there, then he needs to make his one-time switch NOW. He should have made it when Tillman made his switch.

 

Yunas has also poured cold water on it, but that won‘t stop people.

You know, Yunas his good friend, but I‘m sure MLS Buzz is more reliable.

What did Yunas say when he talked about FB (was asked about him switching) Something along the lines that he is a London Boy first and foremost, and that‘s where his focus and heart is.
Made it sound like he would have to be completely be ignored by England to play for us.

England also did want to keep Musah. Southgate and staff personally made a pitch to him to stay.

There is an old FB March article, pretty much made up by the English rags, making the rounds again about him switching.

Looks like it was filler, get some hits without any work time.

 

I agree with you from his perspective. I view it as the equivalent to Rubio Rubin switching to Guatemala. Rubin could’ve gotten called up for us in the next five years. We lack CF’s and he’s good enough that he could be in contention, depending on form, but in all likelihood a switch is happening long-term because there are probably going to be better eventual options.

Balogun probably isn’t even in the top 5 young English striker prospects. Their senior CF’s might not look the strongest right now, but I wouldn’t doubt England producing talent. Let’s not forget he’s the same age as Mason Greenwood and Armando Broja. Those players aren’t available to play for England right now for very different reasons.

 

I'll be thrilled to get him into the fold, but if we do...................I think it'll be after the 2023 Euro U21 Championships. And if England qualifies for the Olympics, then maybe after that too.

I just don't think there's a reason for him to throw in the towel on England yet. Not as much as others seem to think he should.