Gray Davis Recall It would not have happened. By all accounts the recall effort was struggling until Issa stepped in with his millions. As the campaign manager of the last ballot measure in Oregon to qualify for the ballot with entirely volunteer signatures (Vote By Mail Initiative in 1998) I can tell you that it is unbeliveably hard. Additionally you still need substantial funding to pay for the campaign manager, volunteer organizers, direct mail etc etc. Not nearly as expensive as pay by sig but still it costs. While the idea of the intiative system in theory is a good one, it has been warped to the point of non-recongnition now and this latest Gray Davis recall is the icing on the cake. The intiative process allows interest groups and rich individuals to push a narrow agenda and not have to compromise which is the basis of effective governance. State Legislators now just refer a ballot measure to a popoular vote instead of making the hard, difficult choices that times like these require. Narrow interests groups from both sides push divise issues onto the ballot (Ban Gay Teachers!) that ordinarily wouldn't even get a hearing in the state Leg. Additionally, some of these ballot measures are such bad public policy and so poorly written that we wind up as a state saddled with crap that have bizzarre and weird affects that the ordinary voter would have never considered. Finally, in Oregon we vote for our State Supreme Court justices and I think it is one of the most asine things I have ever heard. The idea of a Supreme Court judicial candidate collecting checks to run his/her campaign just boggles the mind. Additionally, we have seen conservative groups run campaigns against judges when their term is up because they do not like the rulings of a particular judge. How warped is that?
Matt, the people collecting signatures get paid, not the the people signing. At least, that's what I'm assuming.
Gray Davis Recall There were several rulings in the late 80's (I can go into detail if you are interested) that struck down laws that prohibited paying (the gatherer not the signer) by the signature. Once this happened the Initiative and Referendum process exploded into a multi-million dollar a year business here in the West. The states that see the most ballot measure activity (with Oregon sadly leading the pack) are California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Arizona. Depending on the sponsor, time in the election cycle and the issue payment per a signature generally ranges from .50 cents to as high as $8.00. Most "professional" signature gatherers carry multiple ballot initiatives on their clipboard and "lead" with a sexy intiative but once you are stopped get you to sign 4 or 5 more so every potential signee means big bucks for the gatherer. These men and women also follow the intiatives up and down the coast in the same was migrant workers follow the crops. They actually make a very good, often tax free, living. There has been some recent backlash here in Oregon to the pay by sig empire but the court rulings make an outright ban very difficult.
Re: Gray Davis Recall As someone who did this as a summer job (for only about two weeks) when I was in college, I can say that this job is not all it's cracked up to be. I was once driven from the Sacramento office our firm was based out of to a Wal-Mart in Livermore to get petition signatures. I was required to stand in an outlined "box" away from the entrance and attempt to solicit signatures. All the while standing next to a sign from Wal-Mart asking customers not to give us the time of day. What's worse, I didn't necessarily agree with everything I was getting signatures for. The petition gatherers are simply asked to remember a one or two sentence "pitch" for each measure as we held them out ready to sign. For example, "Hey, do you want to help K-12 education in California?" We were never encouraged to fully read what we were getting people to sign! I had previously done the Democrats' "ironing board" voter registration drives and didn't quite have the stomach for that either, but at least I stood behind what I was doing.
Gray Davis Recall Okay point taken...I have gathered alot of signatures as a volunteer and you are right it is hard to do because most people do not want to be stopped. I wouldn't exactly call it a blast. DevilDave you have a conscience so petitioning for something that you didn't support was not exactly easy for you. The group of folks I am talking about are a select few whose names appear as petition gatherers on thousands of petitions around the west. They are mercenary's no better and no worse. They gather signatures for those who pay them the most, they do not care what the issue is and they often times use illegal tactics to obtain said signature. They are very good at what they do and have thick ass skin (you have to petition gather).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-2894574,00.html A lawsuit by the recall backers. Guardian suggests this may only prolong matters. Perhaps someone else know why the recall backers would do this? Is the Guardian wrong in their assumption?
It's an AP story, SObearCAL... the Guardian probably has a reporter or two here in the states, but for an issue like this I'm not surprised they went to the Associated Press. It's clear from the article that the recall backers think Shelley is trying to pull dirty tricks to delay certification of the signatures, thus helping move the actual certification past the September deadline to have a recall election before the March primary. If the law in fact says "continuous count" then Shelley is in the wrong.
Field Poll shows voters would support recall From the Sac Bee: http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/recall/story/7041793p-7990024c.html 53% of CA voters at this point would support a recall, according to the latest Field Poll. And though not a commanding majority, the person among possible candidates they would support for gov is former L.A. mayor Richard Riordan. Among other candidates, Arnold Schwarzenegger is second with 15%, currently outpolling Bill Simon, Peter Camejo and Darrell Issa. Only 4% of those polled would support Issa. As I've said earlier in this thread, I suppose I could live with a Gov. Riordan administration though I probably wouldn't vote for him in '06.
8%? Camejo got twice the support of Issa? That's wonderful. Sorry for the Red Sox fan in May impression, but hey, if it was all over now, we'd be in the Gov.'s mansion. Yes, I know, writing-in Riordan or Schwarzenegger would screw that up, but it's something...
Gray Davis Recall 53% in favor of the recall.... This thing is doomed. If you look at polling patterns for ballot measures they traditionally start off very high and come down as the "anti" campaign begins to hammer away at it. In general voters tend to skew towards the "No Vote" with ballot measures once they hear the arguments from both sides. To the average voter they start off saying "Oh that sounds like a good idea" and then then start hearing all the reasons to vote no and people start dropping off. I have seen a number of measures that were initially polling in the 70's and 80's go down to defeat. 53% is awfully low - things may be different in a recall election but if history is any lesson this thing is going down. All it takes is alot of $$$ to put the anti argument out there and Gray Davis is amassing his war chest and he is going to spend alot on the "No Vote". Sorry California but you guys are stuck with Gray.
Well, it's a litle too early to handicap the odds on the recall, IMO. Yes, for (grass-roots, underfunded) ballot measures you typically want your measure to poll at >65% at the start of your campaign, in order to off-set all of the money that will be spent against you by the opposition. The thing is, while Field polls are generally well-respected, I don't have a lot of confidence in their ability to predict "likely voters" in a recall election. 1) We don't know for sure when the election will be held, and what else, if anything will be on the ballot. 2) We also don't know what candidates will be running, but I suspect there will be plenty more before all is said and done (though I like your optimism, SObearCAL ). 3) We all know that Davis is going to run an extremely negative and manipulative "scorched earth" TV ad campaign against Issa, Republicans and Greens, and anyone else who stands in his way (perhaps Sen. Feinstein or some other Democrats - wouldn't that be lovely?). This will have a strong impact on the electorate. 4) It's also difficult to know if there will be any televised debates this time around. A lot of that depends upon whether Gray is leading in the polls (in which case he'll refuse to debate), or if he is losing in the polls (in which case he'll have a different strategy). It's also hard to tell how the media will spin the recall election and California's budget woes. I would imagine many papers will be more than happy to drive down Davis' numbers with a constant stream of negative press once they decide that it's time for a new gov. 5) One more important factor is Gray Davis' astonishingly low approval ratings. According to most public poll information form the 2002 campaign, Gray had a somewhat healthy double-digit lead heading into the first Tuesday in November, but that was based (again) on what polling firms determined "likely voters" would be. In the end, turn-out was significantly down from the previous gubernatorial election (about a 1.5 million voter drop-off, or 20% lower than 1998), and Bill Simon, who had never led in the polls, came within 4.5% of catching Gray. Also, Davis only won a plurality of votes, inadvertently driving third-party vote totals to record highs. Suffice to say, this is far from over...
I believe it's apparent from the polls that the early back-and-forth between Davis and Issa has had an effect on Issa's position in the polls. There's probably some residual effect from last year's campaign affecting Simon as well. Riordan and Schwarzenegger are ahead at the moment primarily because of name recognition. The Bee article suggests that they might be talking to discuss which of them will run and which should back out. I think Democrats in their arrogance, will primarily ignore Camejo and the Greens. But as I said earlier in this thread, if no Dem steps up as a candidate, that would be quite dangerous underestimation.
One other factor to notice is that the trend in the opinion polls is a slight increase in favor of the recall. Just a couple of weeks ago, there was less than a majority in favor of the recall, now there's a slight majority in favor. I expect the numbers will continue to go up and down from here, but it will be fun to watch. BTW - I saw a clip of Davis on the tube just a few days ago, and (perhap it was just my imagination, but) he didn't look healthy and he looked extremely worried and lacking in self-confidence when he spoke. I would almost use the term "panicked." Not that I have an ounce of sympathy for that guy.
Transcript of an NPR piece on the recall, and specifically on Camejo's campaign and the Green support thereto. Good to get the pub, but... 1) No, the reason Greens would vote for the recall has much more to do with principles than personalities. Camejo seems like a nice enough guy and all, but most Greens I know that are for the recall are so because Davis is a crook. 2) Also, in no way could it be accurately said that the Green Party wishes to become a #2 in a two-party-system. An equal part in a multi-party system, yes, but I don't know any of us that are particularly enamored of our current political model. 3) And again, while I've heard folks worry about "spoiling", I've not heard it about the recall. Those against the recall are against an active Green participation, mostly to distance themselves from Issa et al. The few folks against Camejo think he's being opportunistic. It would have been nice if the show could have actually spoken to a Green for their piece on what the Greens are thinking about the recall. On the other hand, the words "Camejo" and "Green" were spoken on NPR about a dozen times. And that's never a bad thing.
Right on. Yeah, that is more than strange. I also think it's funny how some people still seem confused about why there are third parties and independent political movements. When the interviewer asks this guy why Camejo is running for governor, it could just be that he is trying to tease out Camejo's message/campaign theme by pitching a softball, but it seems more like neither of them really understand why anyone would want to have more than just a choice from column A and a choice from column B. Like it's some kind of oddity that there are parties with different political values altogether and real choices out there that voters can make.
Gray Davis Recall I nearly did a "spit-take" Sunday morning at breakfast when I read this article in the Monterey County Herald, reprinted from the San Jose Mercury News: http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/6339303.htm How long ago was it that we saw this woman standing beside her then-husband in his run for senator, and subsequently spouting conservative philosophy on forums like Politically Incorrect? And now she's the darling of the left?? Camejo likes her even...
OK, let me revise what I said (in a new post, since I'm past the time to edit the post above)... Camejo might be willing to drop out should Huffington choose to run. From the S.J. Mercury News article I linked to above:
Yeah, that's a very interesting rumor that first surfaced on Alternet about a week ago. Personally, I think she's somewhat charming (and dare I say attractive?) for someone who is so filthy rich. Among other things, she was the organizer (read benefactor) behind the "Shadow Conventions" in Philly and LA in 2000, and seems to have some pretty decent politics in her second life as it were. She's very bright and articulate, and she has toned down all of the rich white b---- clothes and jewelry she used to wear that made her seem really phony to me. She also has great name recognition, is good on TV, and has plenty of friends in the broadcasting industry. It becomes all the more interesting hearing that Van Jones is part of the draft-Ariana movement. I have a tremendous amount of respect for him and the possibilities of a diverse coalition of people of color, Greens, progressive independents, and disillusioned Democrats uniting behind her candidacy. Just the rumor should have Davis and his advisors shaking in their boots. I'd support her if she runs. However, while I think she would be a formidable candidate, I am still a little skeptical that she will run, and run hard for the governorship. While she's smart and sophisticated and capable of reinventing herself, I don't know if she has what it takes to succeed or have a lasting effect in the world of politics. She will need some really savvy advisors to say the least. I would rather see her run for Congress and win, but either way... Other recall news: From a couple days ago in various papers: and, "Arnold for President...?"
Hmm... On this thread a month ago, I raised the possibility that Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante could null the recall if Davis resigned. Well, we determined that the recall election still has to go forward, and Davis isn't resigning anyway. However, according to the Sacramento Bee, Bustamante may still have a way to get in the governor's office by the back door... http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/recall/story/7085590p-8033439c.html The Cliffs Notes version of the above: The CA Supreme Court will determine how succession takes place. I think they would honor the will of the people and choose the replacement candidate with the most votes, but who knows?
All in all wouldn't be a horrible outcome. Davis is gone, after all. I did draw some hope from this nugget from the article: "Bustamante is not a prolific fund-raiser,..." He may not have as many friends to pay back. That would improve matters right there. Republicans, on the other hand, are going to cry bloody murder. Poor dears. If it works, this could certainly set a precedent. I mean, when was the last time the Democrats executed a crafty political maneuver that didn't blow up in their faces like an episode of the Honeymooners?
The Associated Press is reporting that the signatures required for the recall will be certified this evening. And also that Don Quixote intends to charge the windmill at full tilt: http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/recall/story/7085678p-8033550c.html
October 7th, to be precise. Schwarzenegger is looking more and more serious daily. Still no cracks in the Democrats' mass-suicide pact.
California Democrats do are much better at this, largely given the weakness of the opposition. Remember how Willie Brown just bitchified the GOP Assembly majority for something like a year and a half, remaining Speaker despite representing the minority. The GOP in California does not have the personnel to challenge the Democrats - a recall is only going to prove that. I'm voting Green, because I absolutely will not support Davis. But even a two-way split between Arnold and Issa - neither of whom have a base worth speaking of - will re-re-elect Davis.