Fair to early and as always CL and Euro Champs will be the drivers for the winner.... although I do feel this year there could be a legacy vote for Lewandowski, many (me included) believe he should have won last year and had it taken away from him and he may receive potentially more votes of the back of that even if there is an equal or perhaps stronger candidate as voters feel he is owed. My personal view is Mbappe would be my bet, PSG will go far in CL and France will be strong in the Euros.
Even if the year 2021 has just started for barely 2 and a half months and there is still a lot of time and uncertainties on the different winners of each competition (the Champions League, the championships and the national cups but also this been with international competitions (Euro and Copa America). I will detail more precisely my thoughts concerning my current ranking currently for the Ballon d'Or 2021 (I classify the players in relation to their chance (in%) for me for the Ballon d'Or) : 1- Lewandowski For me, there are probably no better than him for almost two seasons now and the last coronation of Messi. He is consistent in his performances, scores a number of goals, moreover he is in the race and well on his way to the European Golden Shoe, which had escaped him last year. He is also on course to be German champion with the Bundesliga with Bayern. This team has been crushing everyone for two years now, and clearly the best European team and candidate for its own succession. In addition, Lewandowski will undoubtedly have a slight advantage over his competitors with his stolen victory last year. No doubt that a good number of voters will vote for him to compensate a little for his non-victory last year. Even if Poland are not favorites at the Euro and the latter will probably not be able to win it, a UCL + Bundesliga victory, accompanied by his European Golden Boot, will be more than enough for a victory. Chance of winning: 70% 2- Mbappé The young French prodigy is experiencing an even bigger hype than in recent years. His hat-trick against Barcelona shows that perhaps the tide has turned. He always has his own statistics and records of precocity. Neymar's absence allowed him to have the light and could take it from his Brazilian teammate. To see if he continues on this momentum but clearly I may be under the impression that the Ronaldo / Messi hype has faded and that voters want to see new faces. Who other than Mbappé (the heir of Pelé according to himself) to be crowned at just 23 years old and to start a new era of competition with a certain Erling Haaland ? Mbappé is also lucky to have been world champion already and has one of the best European teams at the moment, his chances of victory at the Euro are important. For me only a victory in the Champions League could allow him to come and win his first Ballon d'Or. Otherwise, even if he wins the Euro, I will not see him win it, especially since Ligue 1 may not be on the side of Paris this year, added to this may be a victory in the Coupe de France (but it seems too little). Chance of winning: 55% 3- Messi How not to put Lionel Messi in the top 3 after the start of the fiery season he is doing. Efficiency level (goals and assists) there is no one who does better in 2021, not even Lewandowski! Unfortunately, the early elimination of Barça in the round of 16 is a very serious handicap. However, Barça's spectacular comeback in La Liga and the Copa del Rey final played out, would allow them to end the season with a brace anyway. He also has the Copa America this summer with Argentina, with whom, in view of the current generation, allow him to finally win his first international trophy. If he succeeds, after all his previous failures, I think the voters will be able to consider him a winner but unlike a Lewandowski or a Mbappé, he must (given the early elimination in UCL) win everything (Liga + Copa del Rey + Copa America) to apply to be a credible winner. His situation will surely depend on other competitors, as in 2019. If Bayern or PSG win the UCL, then he will not stand a chance. If it is the others (like Liverpool in 2019) then he will have all his chances. Chance of winning: 45%
4- De Bruyne For me, it is a continuation of last year, a season that is still top notch even if his injury slowed down the start of 2021 a little. You can practically say that he won the Premier League, Manchester City is for me the most favorite team in UCL (after Bayern and just ahead of PSG). This team finally has a solid central hinge and can aspire to win all the titles this season (they are in the final of the Carabao Cup and 1/4 of the FA Cup). If they manage to win at least the treble on the national scene, then he will undoubtedly integrate the top 5 of the Ballon d'Or (unfortunately the fact that he is a midfielder can slow him down) but a good campaign in UCL and even a victory could bring him to this title. He is also one of the players who have a great team to win Euro 2021. Belgium will be one of the favorites. Unfortunately, voters may not be able to choose a single player (like Liverpool in 2019) as the Man City team is a great collective team (like Foden, Gundogan, Dias, Cancelo, ...). Chance of winning: 40% 5- Ronaldo / Haaland For me, these are the two that can be positioned in the same place, with an advantage nonetheless for the Portuguese in terms of his experience and status. The best Portuguese player in history unfortunately failed in 1/8 (like Messi) with a surprising elimination against Porto. In Serie A, it seems complicated, with Inter not seeming to drop points until the end. He still has the Italian Cup final against Atalanta so he can try for a trophy this season. However, Portugal will also be the team to watch this season at Euro 2021. If the Portuguese captain manages to have a great tournament and be vindictive, who knows? But like Messi, and I think for him even more, his success depends on other competitors. It is still strongly that Ronaldo does not manage to have his 6th Ballon d'Or, at least this year. For the young Norwegian giant, the equation is simple. In the absence of Euro, it is imperative that he wins the Champions League with a great campaign to get the title. Dortmund will have to fight to grab a place in the Champions League via the Bundesliga. However, he remains in the race for the Champions League and plays a semi-final of the German Cup, thanks to the early and surprise elimination of Bayern. If the Norwegian giant manages to win the German Cup and in addition the Champions League, he would move into the biggest favorites of the Ballon d'Or 2021. Unfortunately the non-qualification for Norway for Euro 2021, could be a handicap in this season marked by a Euro / Copa America summer. In addition, like Mbappé, a hype around him concerning the future competition for the rivalry of the next 10 years, between him and Mbappé could allow him to gain places. Chance of winning for both: 30%
The other players for me start from further afield and can probably hope to grab the top 5 if they manage to win important trophies with their club / national teams. In order : 7- Lukaku (he can win Serie A and Euro with Belgium) 8- Gundogan (the treble or even quadruple with City, and the Euro with Germany) 9- Benzema (a comeback in La Liga and a victory in UCL) 10- Kane (a victory in UEL and at the Euro with England, while continuing the statistics) 11- Neymar Jr (still in the race for Ligue1, the Coupe de France, UCL and the Copa America with Brazil) They could have other players as well (I am thinking of players from City, Bayern, Paris or even Bruno Fernandes) but I think that according to the results of the players above and in view of their current dynamics, the top10 is not far away. (except Neymar Jr but if he manages to carry Paris and replaces Mbappé in the light, especially with a Copa America, his ranking can quickly go up). However, imagine it was Liverpool or Chelsea (or even Porto) who win the Champions League, then it would arguably be the most open Ballon d'Or campaign in history.
After the elimination of Tottenham with a dramatic comeback of Dinamo Zagreb (and with only the perspective of a victory in Carabao Cup vs Manchester City), I think that Harry Kane could be replace by Bruno Fernandes in the ranking at the 10th place, because currently in UEL campaign yet, 2nd in Premier League and in quarter finals in FA Cup, with Portugal still a good team to win Euro this summer !
@IceBlood34 No offense sir, but you need to take Statistics 101. Your percentage odds gave me a headache
Yes I know how the statistics work haha But I rather think that the whole is not 100%, in the sense that each possibility of each player is dependent on the others, that's why the total does not add up to 100%. I set each player their luck on 100% and these percentages will move according to the performance of each. For example, with the draw for the Champions League, the game between Bayern Munich and PSG will necessarily have an impact on Mbappé (and Neymar Jr) and Lewandowski, so the winner of this double games will undoubtedly increase or decrease. depending on the outcome of the game. Moreover, in view of the confrontations, if teams like Liverpool, Chelsea, Real Madrid arrive in the final and manage to win it, then the cards would be redistributed and who knows if a little Argentinian would not manage to get his 7th Ballon d'Or according to his results...
Dude, if Messi can carry this sorry bunch to the UCL title, it might actually be his most impressive UCL campaign ever.
Since he got injured against Andorra (2 goals scored), Lewandowski will miss the game at Wembley. Will he be back against PSG? Not sure for the moment, maybe.
Do you think Lewandowski's long-lasting injury can revive the Ballon d'Or race ? Can other players, like Neymar, still emerge in this race ?
Probably. If Bayern loses to PSG without him, then that's a major missing link in this year's resume for him. If Bayern beats PSG, then he loses some points for playing in such a stacked team that can beat PSG without him. Either way, he's losing some points. The latter is a much more preferably outcome of course because if he storms it in the SF and F, no one will care.
Also depends whether it is a full month, sometimes this can turn to 2.5-3 weeks, aware it could go the other way. But if they do go out of the CL in the quarter finals to PSG, he would need a very spectacular Euros in my view to get back in the running re winner. Big shame as whilst he can still beat Mullers record, he has lost probably 3 or 4 Bundesliga games at least so now much tougher.
Don't you think that if Bayern eliminates PSG without him, voters will be able to say (as with Liverpool in 2019) that it may be a collective team rather than an individuality. After that I admit that it is the X factor for Bayern this season and its importance is clearly distinguishable, from a choice between Firmino, Mané, Salah, Van Djik or Alisson in 2019. However, he will most certainly win the Golden Boot 2021, neither Ronaldo and Messi will be able to catch him now. For Muller's record, if he comes back as planned, he will have 3 games left to in 5 see 6 goals to overtake him, against teams against M'glabach, Freiburg or Augsburg, I think he has the possibility of it to do. However, in a month Bayern can lose everything, if they go a wrong step this weekend against Leipzig then the title race will be very close, especially in his absence, and if all does not go as planned against the PSG .. So a decisive month. For other contenders, maybe the double confrotnation will allow Mbappé to shine but especially to put Neymar back in the spotlight, even if he starts from very, far away. Messi himself remains in the shadows, and depending on the results in UCL, if he manages to win the Copa del Rey, win the Clasico but also win La Liga, who knows ..? Don't bury Haaland either, who can still win a brace this season. Ronaldo will continue in his stats, but I'm afraid it's too little. The team to watch will undoubtedly be Manchester City, who can win anything this season. Even if they have an incredible collective (Cancelo, Dias, Foden, Sterling, Rodri), there are still two players who stand out with De Bruyne and Gundogan this season. Everything will depend on their impact on the UCL campaign and it all starts against Dortmund. Imagine if De Bruyne wins with City all the trophies except the UCL and wins the Euro with Belgium, he would integrate the top 3 easily, right? It's a decisive month for all the players.
Yes, that's why I said he can overcome that by putting in a couple storming performances in the SF and F. Particularly, if he score a couple of goals in the final to help Bayern win the UCL, he'd be the overwhelming favourite.
LIterally everything is still open. So many big games to play, so many stories to write. No one from players mentioned is yet to be ruled out.
It was announced today that Verratti will be missing as well. And Paredes is supended for the first match.
Do you think that if Paris St Germain goes through Bayern Munich in UCL, the chance for Lewandowski will be over ? or he will go to second or even third place ? In opposite, the current favorite will be Mbappé, with Messi in 2nd ? Do you think other players like KDB could be still in the race ?
Don’t think he got enough credit for his performances this year, especially when he had to play CB— Michael Webb (@mikewebb22) April 17, 2021 De Spaanse media komen superlatieven tekort om het optreden van Frenkie de Jong te beschrijven in de Spaanse bekerfinale. 'Hij is geen centrocampista, een middenvelder, maar een todocampista, een alleskunner op het middenvelder' https://t.co/hTuXzZXG8m— AD.nl/sportwereld (@ADSportwereld) April 18, 2021 Quick reminder that Frenkie de Jong didn't rest a single second since Barça's away game vs Real Sociedad 1 month ago, and neither did he rest in any of Holland's 3 games during the International Break.All of this while still delivering a masterclass in the Final. So complete.. https://t.co/wLh5wvZwWp— 𝐀𝐅𝐂 𝐀𝐉𝐀𝐗 💎 (@TheEuropeanLad) April 18, 2021 The White Rijkaard
https://www.vi.nl/nieuws/een-10-voor-frenkie-de-jong-hij-deed-alles-goed Before the match Dirkie Kuyt bashed him down, lol 1383542653447376900 is not a valid tweet id