Further info. FSU schedule the week prior to ACC tournamenet 2010 at MD and BC 2009 at UVA And VT 2008 at UNC and NCSt 2007 at Clem and Duke Tournament at Lake Buena Vista 2006 Jacksonville and Clem at home Wow! 2005 Citadel at Home and Clem on the road Back then there were up to 3 ACCT games on Wed/Fri/Sun UNC same week 2010 At Duke and WF 2009 at Clemmy and at Md 2008 FSU and UM at Chapel Hill 2007 NCS and UVA at home 2006 only WF at home 2005 only WF on road To summarize, UNC in 6 years the week prior to the ACCT was out of the state of NC 1 time. Meanwhile FSU was on the road 9 times vs 3 at home. Mark protested and lo and behold the format changed in 2011. Who woulda’ thunk. You see my skepticism is well founded, not PIDOOMA.
“Past” is technically correct. I guess I didn’t realize you wanted to go back more than a decade to talk about forward-looking scheduling. That’s on me. I apologize for my snarkiness.
No problem. Just to give you some context for my skepticism re: the ACC and scheduling. With us trying to leave the conference, I wouldn't be shocked to see a West coast trip for FSU. I'll be glad to be wrong on this point. I really feel bad for Stanford and Cal.
The following players have withdrawn from the 2024 NWSL Draft Melissa Dagenais Eva Gaetino Jay Isensee Julia Leas Harper White Any word on why? International Opportunities?
6 of 14 first round picks from the ACC. 7 of 14 second round picks from the ACC. 13 of the first 28 draft picks from the ACC.
The SEC only had 5 players selected in the draft. At the same time, didn't the SEC have more teams in the NCAA tourney than the ACC last year? And I think the SEC has been right there with the ACC with respect to most teams in the NCAA tourney in recent years. It's rather crazy given that there isn't even one SEC program that could match the status of any of the top 5 programs in the ACC, perhaps because the ACC got an earlier start (maybe even much earlier) start with the sport. I think the SEC has been getting stronger and gaining ground--but with Pitt on the rise and ND reestablishing itself, plus the arrival of Stanford (thanks for all the stupidity and money-grubbing in college athletics), the ACC seems stronger than ever, though the portal is going to continue to contribute to increased parity.
With Stanford coming in, it is a little easy to lose Cal in the process. Here is where I am projecting the teams to fit in the conference for the coming year (alphabetical order within the groups): 1 to 4 Clemson Florida State North Carolina Stanford 5 to 6 Notre Dame Pittsburgh 7 to 10 California Duke Virginia Wake Forest 11 to 12 Boston College [could be way too high, perhaps should be down with Syracuse] Virginia Tech 13 SMU 14 to 15 Miami FL NC State 16 Louisville 117 17 Syracuse 233 Something interesting to see will be how many conference regular season games they play and how many teams they have in the conference tournament. The higher the number of games, the more those in the middle will drop in the RPI rankings due to the way the RPI measures strength of schedule. This will be less of an issue if all of the Power 4 play the same number of in-conference games.
Always fun to discuss next season. As of right now Jody Brown and Ran Iwai are still with FSU. Therefore, for the purposes of this exercise I will assume that they will be on the roster next year although that is obviously far from certain. With that assumption I would have FSU in a tier of its own at the top. I would have Stanford and Pitt in the next tier. UNC still has talent even with all of the departures but they are so thin depth-wise that I can't put them higher than the third tier. Clemson and Notre Dame would join them in the third tier. I generally agree with the rest of your projections. I am really interested to see if Duke and UVA can bounce back.
UNC led the charge in the 2024 NWSL Draft 😮💨💫 pic.twitter.com/Z0s37q6nlh— Attacking Third (@AttackingThird) January 13, 2024
I think this will be the biggest question. Duke has really reloaded and hit the transfer portal hard. UVA not so much. But maybe UVA feels confident that injured players coming back will be enough of a boost. UVA was shockingly bad last season and I mean that as respectfully as possible. I see Cal being one group down from where cp has them. But they might benefit from being the trap game for teams traveling West to play Stanford. UNC still has a lot of talent but I’d maybe bump them down too. They’ll still be figuring things out well into the season since they barely have enough players to field a Spring squad right now.
UVA has historically been relatively light in player promotion via social media and a fringe player in NIL. The coach has a track record of developing a certain type of player. Unless they make major changes, they are one of the historically great programs least suited by the current environment. Add that to losing most of their veteran talent last year to long-term injuries and a subpar season was no surprise. This draft feels like a bit of a perfect storm - expansion, increased cap and the USWNT not performing in the WC to expectations. Teams are looking for new blood to build around. That said, the counterargument would be continued expansion and the new pro league. Will be interesting to watch it all play out
Hearing: 1. Duke is not done in portal yet. 2. Pitt is looking at a few players to add - backline and front line waiting on decisions to finalize. 3. UVA has apparently hit the portal with 1 or 2 players - maybe UVA fans can speak to that? 4. N.D. may have a Defender coming in - can Irish fans speak to that? Guessing a player or two of the above could be an international. Agree UNC will have a transition period and adjustment will be interesting to see how quickly they get it going - FSU loses a lot too but has more intact and likely less of an adjustment in 2024.
UVa, Duke and NC St all had down years for sure. But UVa/Duke 7-10? NC St 14-15? UVa and Duke are usually top 4-5 in league/deep in NCAA. NC St went 5/6 seasons in T30-35 of RPI, NCAATs and 3 S16s. Seems harsh for a year entire ACC got only five teams in. Give more credit to those who have done it. BC and SMU way too high/Louisville too low.
UNC lost a lot. How confident are you that they'll still have enough talent to finish among the top group? Also, Duke picked up significant offensive talent - the top scorers from Santa Clara (Walters), and Northwestern (Hase), 2nd in goals scored from Harvard (Bebar), and Oliaro gives them some quality depth at the least. I wouldn't be surprised if they separated themselves from the third group.
NC State has lost a lot of talent and hasn’t brought in enough talent compared to the teams above them to move up any higher. Neither really has Louisville. Of course these are all on paper projections. Duke and UVA performed far below their standard despite having talented rosters, hence a lower than usual projection. BC actually didn’t look horrible last season. Transfer portal moves will be made into May and beyond so we’ll know more a week or two before school starts I’m sure. I’m curious to see how the new coaches at Miami and BC do in the portal.
All good points by those who question the groupings I posted. As some interesting (at least to me) perspective, I rank the teams based on their historic Balanced RPI ranks. For teams with a head coach who has been there 4 years or fewer, I assign teams their average rank over the last 10 years. For teams with a head coach who has been there for 5 years or more, I assign teams their last year's rank. When I rank teams this way (or something similar), my ranks are about the same as the ranks the coaches come up with before the season begins and also as Chris Henderson's ranks. His ranks are based on a number of metrics including, but not limited to, the strength of players coming in and the strength of players who have left. The coaches do about the best, followed by CH and then me. But the differences are minimal.
Clemson, Pitt and UNC lost too much to be in tier 1 and Clemson hasn't been in the top tier in recent past and it seemed they had a special group of older players so they will probably drop back down to 5-10. Cal hasn't achieved what their recruiting says they should and add in the travel and they finish bottom half. NC State had a couple of good season but have dropped way down. They had 1 good player and she graduated. Are they going to join the bottom? BC got a good coach and first year bump for them? Duke has gone to the transfer portal for the first time? How will that go? it seems like the VA Tech, Wake, UVA might be past their day. 1-2 Florida State Stanford 3 to 6. Notre Dame Pittsburgh UNC Clemson 7 to 9 Duke Wake Forest UVA 10-11 Cal Virginia Tech 12-13 SMU Boston College 14-17 Louisville Miami NC State Syracuse
Pitt picked up Backline help in the Portal - no announcement yet - have been looking at several players w/experience. Agree with most of the above. Pitt UNC and Clemson lost alot (ND too) but could reload and fill gaps. It is difficult to fill them all even with portal in just one season. Duke will be interesting to see. Agree Clemson older players really helped the solid Tigers run to this year. Teams with good older returning talent and returning starters usually have an edge(BYU). What ACC teams for 2024 have experienced older players, lost only a few starters(to portal or draft) and still have top talent returning? Should be a more open wild year compared to the past few years and likely a different mix of top 6 teams than last year.
FSU lost a ton, but we are still considered Tier 1 and a conference favorite. We should be flattered I suppose. Stanford was overall a young team I believe. Can't wait to get a glimpse in the spring.
Hardly. All three of these teams are bringing back major talent plus top recruiting classes. If all goes well with their new classes and transfers, I could see Duke, Wake, and UVA displacing any or all of the 4 teams you have in the group ahead of them next year. Clemson is going to have the biggest drop off. Followed by UNC. Followed by Pitt. Followed by Notre Dame. I think those 7 teams are going to be extremely close.
True. I'm not worried about Virginia. We lost two starters and our first midfielder and forward off the bench. And then one midfielder missed three of the first eight games. Talia Staude is the only real loss from our graduating class. I presume Swanson will move Laney Rouse into central defense, which means, if he starts Aniyah Collier at right back, we'll have serious speed on the backline, which to be honest, we haven't had for the last 7 or so years. Virginia's problem is that the entire system is predicated on creating width and we just didn't get that done last year. All this team needs is a true winger in this year's recruiting class. Or Swanson could move away from the 443 to a 442. Swanson told me he had played out of several systems over the years, but it's been pretty much 443 only since I've been able to watch. I don't pay attention to scholastic soccer, but I've been told that Victoria Safradan is the real deal at keeper. If that's true, then I see Virginia back in the top 3.
If they can play 443 they will be fine! Wide players are hard to find. Most players want to come inside to find the ball and/or be closer to goal.