I’ll echo @ussoccer97531 and say Jonathan Gomez for all the reasons he already mentioned. He is the safest pick and the one player I feel is the most likely to have a good career and plays a position with about the least competition for minutes.
I feel like you're interpreting "can't miss" much differently than I am. I think a couple of these guys is the exact opposite of can't miss -- very high ceiling, but also a good chance they won't ever put it all together and be better than MLS hangers on. Either because they don't have the physical attributes needed to be better than that yet (and who knows if they ever will), or because their quality is overly dependent on physical domination (and who knows if that will persist, given that we've only really seen him play against 15 year olds).
I like your enthusiasm, although I seriously suspect that to make those predictions, you must be a time traveler.
I'm always a bit suspicious of kids whose dads are coaches, especially if they're young. Obviously it helps their environment going forward, but it's much less of an advantage than they had when they were young. Not that it's a bad thing that he had more advantages as a youngster, but it's hard to tell of he's dominating solely because of that, and doesn't actually have the requisite talent to continue dominating as everyone around him starts getting top notch training and that gap narrows.
Brian Reynolds is balling out for a big European club at RB in 5 years. 0.5 Alphonso Davies like. Cade Cowell is a solid mid-table Bundesliga player. KDLF will be a good bench option for Barca before getting his move to a fellow La Liga team and becoming a regular at that level. Chris Richards isn't age eligible here but he's starting next to Brooks in Qatar.
Know some of the kids towards the lower end of this list. It is crazy of you to put in 07s and 08s, except maybe Reyna. I've seen some of these younger kids play and although they splash moments of greatness, it's not a sure thing at all. Some of your facts are wrong. With incorrect inputs, poor outputs. Some of these kids have coaches with financial interests hyping. You get the picture. Carry on...
The answer to the Thread Question: Sergino Dest An uncapped answer: Gio Reyna A, we know Gio would have been capped except for Covid answer: Chris Richards An non-obvious choice: Caden Clark
Literally everyone sucked beyond Reyna-Richards types, what means that there are plenty of ways for kids not to make it.
Well, I did okay even if I didn't take a whole lotta risks. But can't miss kinda pushes you that way.
These threads never age well, but one of my favorite chuckles from the old posts was David Kerr listing CCV as a bust.
In one earlier lists of something like 40 names Lletget was singled out as the one having no chance. He happened to be the only with a decent NT career.
I picked Gomez for this edition. There might’ve been a few better picks, but I feel okay about my pick. Wouldn’t say he’s been a terrific success yet, but already has a few USMNT caps and I’m hopeful that number will go up significantly once he gets a footing in the club game. It’s hard for anyone to break through immediately at Real Sociedad. Not like he got a lot of chances and failed. He just didn’t get any.
One of many… many bad takes sadly. Really hate the way I evaluated players back then both with CCV and how many players I listed. Especially compared to now after a couple years of learning how to really evaluate players from actual pro scouts and coaches really makes me face palm At the time 5 years post that u20 World Cup with CCV being a pretty consistent disappointment outside of the YNT’s I was pessimistic to say the least. His passing still has to improve but his defending’s come such a long way
I’m a bit down on Gomez. He hasn’t really broken through for Real Sociedad, who were desperately looking for a left back this year. It’s less about missing chances and more about them not seeing him as a real option for the position (as opposed to bringing in someone from the outside). And now he’s not playing a ton while on loan in the second division either. More than anything he needs playing time.
Early indications are more Chris Gloster than future NT LB unfortunately :/. Of course time will tell.
Well again, I wouldn't say he got a chance. You can say they were desperately looking for a LB, but the LB they were desperately looking for ended up being a LB that was a high-priced signing from Arsenal. Not sure that fits the description too similarly to what Gomez is (an unproven young LB in the top European leagues). Further, they only have two players '03 or younger on their first team. An 11M signing from the French first division and a 13M signing from the Russian first division. When a team like this spends that fee on them, they are guaranteed some playing time. There are no players Gomez' age or younger that came through the academy (or even just the reserves like Gomez) that have played a minute this season. Real Sociedad might have a reputation as a club that needs to find cheap young talent (a lot of which comes from their academy), but ever since they got really good at the first team level they haven't been giving out chances to their academy players. I'm a lot more willing to be down on a player if they get a chance and fail. If they are not getting a chance and people are getting impatient about that, it's a shame, but I'm not sure it reflects poorly on the player, especially when they have a demonstrated track record at other levels, as Gomez does. His current loan only started a month and a half ago. He got there days before their season started, and missed their whole preseason. Let's give him some time to establish himself before we write off that stint so quickly. We agree he needs to play, but I'm not sure we need to be impatient about this and start questioning his level because of some idea that authority figures don't think he's good enough, which might not even be the case (again, Real Sociedad hasn't given out ANY chances to players his age from their academy).
I think for a lot of us 2007-2013 youth world cups disabused us of some of are overhyping of prospects, but the sheer quality of those youth teams starting in 2015, started giving us that sort of soccer heroin prospect fix again that was hard to kick. I'm somewhat caught in the middle. Not as crazy as I was 10-15 years ago, but still, right here, right now, I'm all in on Keyrol and Cavan, so just how different am I? I think it's more edge guys and reading too much into small things. I wish I posted in there and it was confirmed, but with a guy like KDLF, after the U20 world cup that cycle it was very hard not to think: #1 Boy did he suck at that tournament. #2 How much more important is sucking vs how young he was (he was playing like 3 years under age). I came out of that tournament not buying him, but I was buying plenty of Soto, Llanez, Ledezma, Pomykal, but I was selling all my Mendez, and Durkin. I was already sold on Weah and it seemed pretty obvious by then that he was legit. Still tempering expectations even now, but as an example that tempering has happened: I watched this past U20 cycle and felt basically everyone involved was either at best bench depth, or not even that, other than some of the defense, and keepers and maybe Cade and some guys that couldn't play in it or barely at all (Pardes, Paxten, and Guti). Most of that U20 team just looked a lot like a + version of the '09-'15 field players for the U20's, solid, but not good or great. I suspect what we get are basically backups to starters: Paredes, Cowell, Guti, Paxten, Gaga, plus maybe a defender or two, and probably somewhere between zero to 1 starter. It's a win if we end up with 3+ guys that could make a 23/26, and we just might, but the problem with that current cohort, most of which were '03s to '05's if memory serves is that none of them look like lock starters in the way that say, Weah and Dest in '19 looked, or Adams and Sargent and not released Weston in '17, or Pulisic in '15 etc. The only guys that I look at and think, maybe, are Paredes, Cowell, Guti, and Gaga. My reasoning is pretty simple with each: Paredes: Moved to Wolfsburg at just 18 years old. Found a way into the lineup pretty quickly. 6 goal contributions in 1550 minutes as a 17/18 year old in '21. He's clearly not at the mega elite level that guys like Pulisic, Weston, Adams and Reyna were, but the next tier down? Say, the Weah tier? He might be that. Guti: Played in one tournament in the U20's and was a stud back in late '22. Had 19 goal contributions so far the past two seasons combined in about 4500 minutes as a late 18 year old/19-20 year old player. Chicago would not release him to the U20's which really crippled our attack when combined with no Paxten, and Paredes only availability in the knockouts. He seems like a guy that will be in Europe by Summer '24 or winter '24-'25 at the latest. Paxten: Similar situation to Paredes. Produced in MLS, moved to Frankfurt, fit right in started getting minutes early but like Brendan, his size remains a real issue. Will it limit his ceiling? So far it seems to be doing so, but it's early, he only just turned 20 last month. Cowell: His club form has seemingly always been meh, but he was a HUGE weapon at the U20 WC, scored a bunch of goals, and hit the cross bar and post numerous times at the U20 WC and at the Gold Cup (I'd suspect more than 4 times combined, kinda crazy). European interest supposedly began when he was 18/19 back in the '22 season. Maybe earlier. You can see what the interest is based in. His pace and power are unparalleled in the system. His technical skills are erratic. He can go from doing some beautiful stuff one moment, to really clunky, 1980's style soccer skills the next. I think he's better technically, definitely improved his floor there anyway, since he broke out as a young teen the summer before covid. Bologna wants him. If he can improve his technical piece to at least adequate, he becomes a legit weapon. Gaga: Its really simple, he's been perceived as the best goal keeper prospect in the world at his birth age cohort up through 2022 anyway. A little shine off the rose the past year, but goalies typically have long careers if they can stay healthy and if he can keep growing as a keeper, he get better and better. Honestly the best thing about Gaga and GK in general is that it looks like we have two in prime keepers minimum, in Turner and Calender, some vet depth thats meh, and at least 2 stud prospects. So for now anyway, goal keeper seems locked in. Looking at all these guys, I see Paredes and Guti as depth pieces in the way Aaronson was last cycle, Cowell is a straight up wild card, I don't know what Paxten is, and Gaga is a wild card too just because I think he's dipped a little the past year in expectations.
He's a TBD at the moment, but he doesn't look like a can't miss at this point. You can very clearly see a path where he does miss. Can't misses don't need good breaks or the right situation to make it. They are Christian Pulisic or Gio Reyna.
I think can’t miss is they are a USMNT player, to some extent. Like for instance, I picked CCV the time before. He’s not some amazing player, but he’s clearly a capable USMNT player. Is that missing because I didn’t pick like Dest or McKennie or someone like that? I wouldn’t group can’t miss with star. To miss connotes that a player didn’t reach the given level. I think the level we’re speaking about is playing for the USMNT, not being a star.
Well, we've got to have some standard, and I think it needs to be higher than getting a game -- after all, Corey Baird has USMNT caps. And if some of these prospects have a Corey-Baird-esque* career ... I think that's probably too low a bar to be meaningful. I get there that there are complete busts, but that player isn't going to be a serious contender for significant USMNT time going forward (and really didn't get competitive minutes in 2019, either) But CCVish is probably a good line if we want to set it lower than star. Top player at his position in a second tier league. Got caps in competitive set ups. He's had a bit of small number of calls, but he should make 20+ which seems like a decent line. I definitely put Noel Buck there. It's hard for me to see him, barring injury, not being a very good MLS or Scottish League player.
@David Kerr mentioned Ransford Gyan at the beginning of this thread. He's an 06 and just won Gatorade National Player of the year and his second straight Gatorade New Jersey POTY. Not in an MLS academy, looks to be going the prep HS to College route. That's been a reliable way to produce good players historically. Maybe this thread was a bit too early for him, but still it's good to remember that there's no one path to the top and many of these names will come in and out of the collective consciousness before they are 28-30 years old.
Ransford’s still legit. Curious how his physical profile holds up at higher levels as he isn’t the biggest player however he’s very explosive. In college if he goes that route he’s going to be an absolute problem. I’m 99% sure he isn’t an American citizen or given our wingers in the u17 cycle he probably would’ve been called up by now