The 2018 Table :: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Curious Quantities

Date of mathematical elimination/qualification does seem pretty relevant for a thread looking at playoff qualification. So to me, it seems a little worth the time. .....to each their own though.

 

Because ATL plays the Red Bulls still, for ATL to stay on 51 points, the Red Bulls have to reach 51 points with more wins than Colorado, as a result, the Rapids have been eliminated from the SS.

 

Shocking news

 

The shocking part was that we hadn't been eliminated yet.

 

With a weird calendar that we have this year, if DCU keeps getting the same results at home and away they might finish 4-5 points ahead of MTL. Would that be disappointing?

 

Hey @Knave, your calendar includes COL@LAG, which happened last week. It was originally scheduled for 8/29, but got moved.

 

I blame me, all my travel has confused @Knave as to what day and week this is

 

Your week 34 schedule has 29 listings, but it has to be an even number because each game has two clubs.

 

I didn't count the games in each week.

 

I have an hour train commute each direction for work, so I started on this, because why the hell not. Have some procedures to calculate if a team has been eliminated from playoff contention or if they've already qualified. I've also started on whether or not a team can still win the Supporter's Shield (good news Orlando fans, you can still win the Supporter's Shield outright! It's not going to happen, but it's theoretically possible). It's a fun little programming exercise.

 

A program is probably more than I would do (or more honestly can do). I basically just look at ones with low elimination #s (magic numbers) and eyeball based on their schedule. But I'd be very interest in how you do it. I'm debating starting to follow baseball just to see if there are similar instances there.

 

Excuse me, kind sir. But your favorite team in the world has officially made it into playoff position.

Congrats!!

 

2/3 of Canadian teams eliminated from SS contention seems like something (I know I’m stretching)

 

Have I ever thanked you for using WDL instead of WLD? It makes so much more sense that way.

 

I"m still trying to wrap my head around the meaning of Magic # and Tragic # and how they are affected by other games. You probably explained this before so could you supply a link to the explanation?

 

There are 3 links in the original post that discuss that.

Bill's right about us...no one reads his stupid links.

 

The Red Bulls have 52 points. New England has the seventh most possible points in the East with 56. The Red Bulls needs a sum of at least 5 more points and 5 points dropped by New England to clinch over New England because 52 + 5 > 56. It gets more complicated to clinch over multiple clubs. Montreal and Toronto FC have 54 possible points. If New England drops 5 points, the Red Bulls don't get any, and Montreal and Toronto FC don't drop any, the Red Bulls will not clinch the playoffs. If you get as many points as your magic number, you clinch the playoffs. If the Red Bulls draw at Montreal, the Red Bulls will clinch over Montreal because the Red Bulls will have 53 and Montreal will be limited to 52. The Red Bulls clinch the playoffs with a win over Houston followed by a win over Montreal and/or New England does not beat Portland.

 

Not if you're as old as Knave and grew up in the United States.

 

Magic numbers, as best as I can tell, originated with baseball when only the conference or division winner advanced to the post-season (or playoffs if you will). At that point it was a simple, discrete, calculation. How many games does the first place team have to win, and the next team have to lose in order to guarantee advancement.

As playoff systems have moved beyond just division winners, the calculations involved become much trickier. And soccer's (and the NHL's) curveball of having some games with two points and others worth three further complicates matter.

In many cases it's now easier to calculate the reverse for failing teams. How close are we to ********ing this up? That's the tragic number.