The 2016 Standings: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers, and Standing on the Shoulders of Others

Hello, miscreants and footie watchers and all the ships at sea.

Borrowing from my man Knave, here's the 2016 USL Western Conference version of his epic scoreboard-watch thread from the 2015 MLS season, altered a bit for USL purposes. Correctly, I hope.

I hope the definitions are clear, but if not here goes...

MAX - Maximum possible points

PROJ - Projected points, based on points gained thus far, plus average of points per match * remaining matches: PTS+(PPM*MR)

MAG# - Magic Number - Number of points to obtain to guarantee a spot in the playoffs: (#8 Seed Max - PTS) + 1

MagPPG - Points Per Game needed to achieve Magic Number

TRAG # - Tragic Number - Maximum number of points that can be "lost" to keep you out of the playoffs: (MAX - #8 seed points) +1

REM SOS - Average PPM of remaining opponents in schedule



As you see, the table is not sorted by current points, but rather by max possible points. Since we're only roughly 55% through the season, and things are pretty muddy in the middle of the WC, I figure that remaining matches carries a bit more value than current record.

A couple of things jump out - firstly, there is a "top 4", then a "middle 8", then the two dragline teams.

Some teams have a markedly easier SOS than others (SLC in particular, with only two of their eleven remaining matches against top-four teams), while Sacramento will have the toughest sledding for the remainder of the season with five of their remaining thirteen matches against top-four teams and five against teams not currently in the top-8.

In later versions I will add elements like projections for home-field advantage and probability for the WC Wooden Spoon, even though it appears the Roughnecks may already have that one locked up.

Updates and changes to come as we get more results in, probably will update on Monday afternoons.

 

Right now, everybody's just a nice shade of white, with golden toasty brown underneath.

Toast Jesus will reveal himself in due course.

 

Couple of Sunday night matches to put in, including one BIG surprise:

1. TUL 0 @ RGV 0 - Large amounts of "meh" emanating from the shadow of the Rio Grande.
2. COS 1 @ SEA 2 - This one moved the pegs a bit for both COS and SEA, greatly helping the Flounders in their effort to avoid being as toast as their parent club apparently wishes to be. Regrettably, with only 12 matches remaining, it may be too little too late for F2.

The new table is as follows:



And yes, it doesn't look like the "normal" standings. Sue me.

Upcoming WC matches for the week:

Tuesday - OKC @ SPR
Wednesday - VAN @ RGV
Friday - STL @ TUL
Saturday - LA2 @ POR, VAN @ SAN, OCB @ OKC, SAC @ COS, SEA @ AZU

Screw the EC. If somebody wants that table to be done, somebody over there can do it. It's bad enough keeping up with the WC table.

ETA: Okay, sorry about the grumpy tone. Bad night on the home front. Better mood tomorrow, I promise.

 

Results from the week:

Tuesday - OKC 2 @ SPR 0
Wednesday - VAN 0 @ RGV 4
Friday - STL 0 @ TUL 2
Saturday - LA2 4 @ POR 1, VAN 0 @ SAN 2, OCB 1 @ OKC2, SAC 0 @ COS 1, SEA 3 @ AZU 2

Big winner of the week: OKC. They got six points on the week, and they still have three games remaining with their in-state Wooden Spoon favorite.

Big loser of the week: Vancouver. It seems the Texas heat does not agree with our northern brethren, as they got outscored down Texas way to the tune of 6-zip.

To the standings!!!


Okay, I went back to the pure-points listing. One thing that stands out is the MAX, where only one team (OKC) has a potential MAX of 70, due mostly to the number of games in hand they have remaining, and their paltry RemSOS thanks to three remaining games with Tulsa and one with Seattle.

Tulsa was ever-so-briefly out of the Spoon projection until Seattle picked up three down at AZU. We can't formally call the Roughnecks toast quite yet, but their outside's getting pretty golden brown. Portland and AZU are both sitting comfortably in the Toastmaster, patiently awaiting their fate.

Right now, the two teams most likely to duke it out with Vancouver for the WC crown are LA2 and OKC. With the critical injury to Emrah Klimenta, I just don't see SRFC being able to maintain anything other than a roughly 1.5 PPG pace. The Bears will get in the playoffs, but best-case right now is third or fourth, with finishing fifth or sixth a very good possibility unless they can pick up a positive result or two on the rest of the July Bataan Death March.

Coming up this week:

Wednesday: SPR @ COS
Friday: AZU @ SLC
Saturday: COS @ STL, LA2 @ SAN, OCB @ SPR, TUL @ OKC
Sunday: SAC @ VAN, POR @ SEA

 

This week's results...
Wednesday: SPR 1 @ COS 1
Friday: AZU 3 @ SLC 0
Saturday: COS 1 @ STL 2, LA2 3 @ SAN 2, OCB 0 @ SPR 3, TUL 0 @ OKC 3
Sunday: SAC 1@ VAN 2, POR 0 @ SEA 1

To the standings we go...



Winner of the week: OKC, who keep moving up the table and currently still have the top max possible along with one of the lowest remaining SOS scores in the top of the table, as well as two games in hand and only four points off the top of the table.

Loser of the week: COS, who pretty much tossed their game in hand on Vancouver and Scum2 down the toilet in a loss to STL.

Honorable mention loser of the week: Sacramento, who let a hard-won draw at Vancouver slip through their fingers in the 92nd minute.

Tulsa's looking ever so crispy right now, and with this week's result have passed through the 4.00 Magic PPG figure, which would ordinarily consign their collective soul to Toast Jesus. However, we work on actual math here on BigSoccer, and it is possible that the Roughnecks could have a massive return to form that would also, in turn, help everybody else out by hanging a L or two on OKC. Hope springs eternal.

Portland had a real opportunity to get themselves out of the Spoon derby by winning the mini-Cascadia this week, but were unable to pull it off.

Upcoming games this week:
Friday - VAN @ COS
Saturday - OKC @ STL, SAC @ RGV, SAN @ SPR, LA2 @ OCB, TUL @ AZU
Monday - SLC @ SEA
Tuesday - SAC @ OKC

 

It's probably because I'm a moron who's bad at the maffs.

Ultimately the magic and tragic numbers don't mean a lot until there's <10 games left in the season.

Unless you're a Roughnecks fan, that is.

 

Results for the week:

Friday - VAN 1 @ COS 1
Saturday - OKC 0 @ STL 0, SAC 0 @ RGV 0, SAN 1 @ SPR 2, LA2 0 @ OCB 2, TUL 2 @ AZU 1
Monday - SLC 1 @ SEA 4
Tuesday - SAC 1 @ OKC 0

Winner of the week: Our own SRFC, who got the road win they needed along with the scoreless tie in Edinburg to finish the Bataan Death March with five points on five matches.

Loser of the week: OKC Energy FC, who had a golden opportunity to vault themselves up to the top of the table in advance of their games with Tulsa, but failed to do so.

Loser of the week, Honorable Mention: RGV Toros and their video feed, which received a MMA-style beatdown at the hands of SRFC and its fans. Honorable mention also goes to AZU, who lost in the most Yallopian fashion, scoring exactly zero goals on the night while giving up a 93rd minute goal to Tulsa in a 2-1 loss in Peoria.

To the standings!!!



Coming up next week:

Wednesday: SPR @ STL, COS @ POR, VAN @ AZU
Thursday: OCB @ TUL
Saturday: SEA @ VAN, OKC @ RGV, SPR @ TUL, POR @ LA2, SAN @ SAC
Sunday: AZU @ OCB

Toast Watch: Tulsa continues to maintain its current level of crispy brownness, and it looks like both Portland and SLC Monarchs are having thoughts of joining in. Arizona United still has the game in hand on Tulsa with two in hand on SLC, so their toast level is not as severe, Yallop factor notwithstanding.

I still like Tulsa for the WC Spoon, but Portland is making themselves an awful pest in that regard right now. I'm tempted to do a unified table, because there's two teams in the east that have truly horrifying records (Riverhounds at 3-12-4=13, FC Montreal at 2-16-1=7), so it's probably a bit unfair to threaten either the Roughnecks or T2 with the Spoon.

Until next week...

 

Hmmm...USL still hasn't put the result of LA2's utter facking meltdown last night on the league standings yet. I wonder if something's up.

 

This weeks results:

Wednesday: SPR 1 @ STL 1, COS 1 @ POR 1, VAN 2 @ AZU 3
Thursday: OCB 2 @ TUL 1
Saturday: SEA 1 @ VAN 1, OKC 0 @ RGV 0, SPR @ TUL PPD, POR 4 @ LA2 3, SAN 1 @ SAC 1
Sunday: AZU 3 @ OCB 1

Winner of the Week: Arizona United. AZU scraped off several layers of brown toasty goodness and won both their matches on the week while scoring all their goals for themselves, and in turn bringing themselves within one point of the Red Line.

Loser of the Week: LA Galaxy 2, who stood around and watched a 3-0 lead, at home and in the 60th minute, turn into a 4-3 loss at the hands of at-the-time co-cellar-dweller Timbers 2. The collapse was so complete that Curt Onalfo was unable to even get up the energy for a referee-directed hissy fit. This is what happens when your best defender decides to direct a few of the seven words you can't say on television toward the center ref (link warning for naughty language) and gets hisself a straight red - also in the 60th minute.



To the standings!!!


(N.B.: Includes the result of POR @ LA2, which still is not reflecting in the official league standings at the time of this posting)

Toast Watch: Tulsa lost an opportunity to stay within one-game shouting distance of T2 when their match with the Spork Rangers was postponed due to field conditions in Tulsa. Down 10 points with 9 matches to play is close to toastiness, but not quite. Both SLC and POR have the Toastmaster plugged in and warming up.

Coming up this week:
Monday: COS @ SLC
Wednesday: OCB @ VAN
Thursday: TUL @ COS
Saturday: LA2 @ OKC, SAC @ STL, SEA @ RGV, SPR @ SLC, SAN @ AZU
Sunday: OCB @ POR

 

The results of the week showed a remarkable run of luck at the craps table for SRFC, as they got most of the results they needed to move up in the table relative to their competition (with the only "miss" being TUL-COS)...

Monday: COS 0 @ SLC 0
Wednesday: OCB 1 @ VAN 0
Thursday: TUL 0 @ COS 1
Saturday: LA2 0 @ OKC 0, SAC 4 @ STL 3, SEA 0 @ RGV 6, SPR 0 @ SLC 1, SAN 0 @ AZU 1
Sunday: OCB 1 @ POR 2

Winner of the week: Eh. I suppose SRFC because they got most of the ties/losses by opponents that they needed, and they also actually won their match on the week - even though they tried desperately not to in the latter part of the second half. Who knew the most dangerous lead in soccer was at 4-1?

Loser of the week: VWC2. The Whitecaps have continued their horrid form of late this week (1-4-2 in the last seven matches), and lost at home to the schizophrenic Orange County Blues, who followed that upset road victory by a loss at Portland. If nothing else, the Blues did the teams at the top of the WC table a big-time solid. Honorable mention goes to Flounders 2, who managed to give up four goals in stoppage time (two in the first half, two in the second) in getting blasted 6-zip by RGV Toros.

Tables...tables...tables for EVERYBODY!!!

Today's tables feature the inclusion of a nice toasty brown color for our favorite baked bread product, the Tulsa Roughnecks, who are now officially declared toast by the inclusion of another number in the table (h/t to Knave), the actual despair number:

AD# = ((Projected Pace of 8th seed)-(current points)) / Remaining matches.

Simply put, it shows what you have to do per-game to get up into 8th if the team currently there just keeps playing the same mediocre footy they've been playing all season. And, if you can't get up into 8th place by winning all your matches while the current resident of 8th place insists on maintaining his current mediocre pace, you're TOAST. Well, Tulsa, you're toast, because it's gonna take an act of Bog to get your butts up the table enough to get in the playoffs.

Long and short: If your AD# is 3.0 or above, you are toast. Say your prayers, and commend your collective souls to Toast Jesus, because he's the only help you're gonna get.



And yes, the Tulsa AD# is not yet 3.0, it's only 2.99. Don't care - can't you smell the sourdough burning? But don't feel bad, Roughneck fans, because you're not alone in the USL...



Yep, folks, I finally got off of my lazy arse and did the EC table to see who's in, who's out, and who's toast. As I suspected, there's plenty of brown, toasty goodness to be had in the EC, but over there we've even got a couple of teams who have (all but) clinched a playoff berth. Of course, when you spend 1/4 or so of your season beating the crap out of FC Montreal and Pittsburgh and Harrisburg and TFC2, some pretty big numbers are not that hard to come by, as the combined table shows...




Yes, I think the conference-only schedule sucks big, hairy donkey balls, because right now with the number of really bad teams in the east, it all but guarantees that the USL championship will be played in the EC champion's stadium.

Oh, well. Can't gripe if you don't win. Can't gripe if you're not toast, either. This time next week, we'll probably have an actual elimination from the playoffs in the east, and (hopefully) a breakup of the logjam at the top of the west.

Upcoming games in the west this week:
Wednesday: AZU @ SAN, POR @SLC
Thursday: RGV @ TUL
Saturday: SEA @ SAN, OKC @ TUL, LA2 @ OCB, POR @ SAC
Sunday: RGV @ COS, AZU @ VAN, STL @ SPR

Until next time...